Frazier; shot at SS?

[redsrbetter]

Walt Jocketty is taking a look at Frazier for the shortstop position. Very interesting development here. Many have said that he is not a SS anymore. Although he played pretty decent for Rutgers, he hasn't been manning the infield captain position very much since he has been drafted.

I am ready to see it happen. His bat is already ahead of Janish in my opinion. Of course, he will have to go through the adjustment period, but I still think it would be great to see him break out at SS.

The downside would be if he were to play a backup role to Janish. He would hit at first until pitchers get to know him,. then he would definitely go through the adjustment slump. At which point; he may lose a lot of ground having not being given the opportunity to play everyday. I hope that doesn't happen.

So, in retrospect, if they take a look at him and he pans out this spring. I hope they give him every opportunity to go through what nearly every rookie goes through. Let him battle through the adjustment period.

[Saber]

Eh, he's not a shortstop anymore. Pedroia was a college shortstop. Jason Giambi was a third baseman in college.

[redsrbetter]

Delgado was a catcher too. I realize that. Many say Frazier is too big to be a SS, and he may be. I am just happy they are open to it.
Lets face it, their options at SS are pretty slim.

[Saber]

Kevin Goldstein made a pretty good point a few years ago. If you hear scouts say that a guy MIGHT have to move off a position, just accept that it's going to happen. If there's a debate, then there's no way he'll stick there. Case in point: Jesus Montero at catcher and Brett Wallace at third.

[redsrbetter]

You definitely have a point there. The scouts are much smarter when it comes to player talent and abilities than anyone else on the planet.

My argument would be whether these scouts prematurely label a player and the media and front offices base their decision off that rating.

How many players have we seen that looked to have a ton of talent and seemed to come up with the big hit when needed only to sit the bench and rot the next week? All this could be a miscue from a scout's perspective.

The scouts obviously get it wrong at times too. Who was the last #1 overall pick in the draft that really made an impact on their big league roster?

Bryan Bullington? Nope
Delmon Young? Nope
Matt Bush? Nope
Justin Upton? Maybe
Luke Hochevar? Nope

And I won't judge 2007, 2008, and 2009 because it is a bit early to judge the possible impact of these players.

We have to go all the way back to 2001. Almost a decade ago the Twins selected Joe Mauer as the first overall pick in the draft. This is just a small sample of how scouts can get it wrong. And we can argue that they get it right all the time as well. Like I said, they are the backbone of MLB and pretty much the voice as well. But do we take their thoughts too literally without finding out for ourselves sometimes first?

How many scouts decided on their own the Tim Lincecum wasn't going to be any good due to his windup and size? Yet the Giants gave him a shot and obviously got to know the kid and his father before making a decision to change his mechanics. They dug deep and got one of thebest pitchers in the game for it.

[Saber]

Uh, okay. What does any of that have to do with Frazier's defense?

Also, Jeremy Brown sucked. This isn't a stats vs. scouts debate. It's whether Frazier can stick at short.

[redsrbetter]

Yes but your argument was that Frazier may not stick because scouts have said so. Or at least it's the way I read it. Not that I disagree at all, I am just looking at possible angles.

Do I personally think Frazier could stick? No, I don't. But I haven't actually seen him play SS and even if I had, I don't have the eye for talent that many do. Yet, I still contend that a scouts thoughts should not be the end all.

[Saber]

Never said they were the end all, just a good rule of thumb.

And this is Sabermetrician saying that.

[redsrbetter]

I agree for sure. And hopefully the innerworkings of the front office dialogue are debates on a scout vs another scout level. I am sure many scouts disagree with eachother and it is up to the GM and his assistance to cipher out what they believe to be accurate.

I have personally noticed that Walt Jocketty seems to heavily rely on Chris Buckley in the player draft. Which is good, when Jocketty flat out admits he hasn't seen the players perform yet. That he has only heard from his scouts. I just hope the scouts get it right more than they get it wrong.

[realmofotalk]

FWIW, if there were scouts who believed Lincecum wasn't going to be a successful pro, I would think more than anything else it had to do with his high walk ratio, which I personally don't mind if the K-rate more than compensates for it. His size and delivery were simply durability concerns.

[realmofotalk]

And what was said about players having to move to an "easier" position is so true. All those shortstops whose draft profiles note that he "might" not stay at short always move to second, third, or to the outfield. Always.

[Saber]

Kevin Goldstein has Frazier as the 3rd best prospect in the organization, with this to say:

3. Todd Frazier, INF
DOB: 2/12/86
Height/Weight: 6-3/220
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Signed: 1st round, 2007, Rutgers University
2009 Stats: .290/.350/.481 at Double-A (119 G); .302/.362/.476 at Triple-A (16 G)
Last Year’s Ranking: 2

Year in Review: The Reds’ top pick from 2007 continued to hit at both Double- and Triple-A, and may have finally found a defensive home at second base.
The Good: Frazier just hits. He's proven himself at every level with good hand-eye coordination, a solid approach, and average-to-plus power. He cut his strikeout rate significantly in 2009 without any loss in power, leaving many scouts even more optimistic about his big-league potential. He's played every infield position and left field as a pro, but a move to second base in 2009 had some projecting him as a Jeff Kent-esque force there. He's a big makeup guy who sets an example for other players with his effort.
The Bad: Nothing about Frazier's game is pretty. His swing is awkward and mechanical, but it works so well for him that few want to see him change. His defense also lacks smoothness, as while he can hold his own at first, second, third, and left field, his average speed and arm strength will likely prevent him from ever being a plus defender.
Ephemera: Frazier hit .600 in the 1998 Little League World Series while recording the final strikeout of Toms River's 12-9 win over Japan in the championship game.
Perfect World Projection: Frazier has the ability to be a good, offense-oriented second baseman.
Path to the Big Leagues: Frazier's most logical positions, second and third base, are blocked by Brandon Phillips and Scott Rolen, two of the bigger contractual commitments in the organization.
Timetable: Frazier will head back to Triple-A Louisville to begin 2010, and he could get some time in the outfield in order to get his bat in the big leagues as soon as possible.

[redsrbetter]

FWIW, if there were scouts who believed Lincecum wasn't going to be a successful pro, I would think more than anything else it had to do with his high walk ratio, which I personally don't mind if the K-rate more than compensates for it. His size and delivery were simply durability concerns.

This is just one of probably a zillion of it's kind in 2006. I am sure all of us have read it before; but the excuse we got as Reds fans was exactly what I have quoted below.

Although he may be one of the top players in the country, scouts reportedly continue to show concern regarding the size of Lincecum. It's a situation that is hardly new for Lincecum.
"[Scouts] talk about my size, or the lack thereof," Lincecum said. "So I have to deal with that. It's something I've had to deal with pretty much my whole life. But it hasn't been too bad."
Knutson feels like Lincecum's performance should outweigh any concerns about his small frame.
"I think he's answered all of those questions this season," Knutson said. "He's really strong. I think he has less chance of getting hurt, because of his [delivery] style."
Lincecum's mechanics are another part of his game that scouts are not used to seeing. As he and his coach describe it, he recoils at the start of his delivery, turning his back to the plate. Putting his entire body in motion, and with a long stride to the plate, Lincecum then unwinds his body as he throws.
"It's kind of a pinwheel action," Lincecum says in describing his pitching motion. "It's been told to me that [my delivery] is a combination of Kevin Brown and Sandy Koufax.
"It's the way I was taught by my father. My feeling is whatever works for me, works for me." "He's really athletic. He really uses his entire body," Knutson said. "His arm really just comes along for the ride. His delivery isn't that unusual, but it is very dynamic. He's got great flexibility."

Link

Yet, I have no doubt that many scouts also had a problem with his walk rate, but he adjusted that in his final year at Washington.

After walking more than 150 batters in his first two seasons, Lincecum has adjusted, adding a slider and changeup to his repertoire. His fastball, already a plus pitch, improved a grade as he added nearly 15 pounds of muscle and has reached 98 mph this season, often sitting between 91-96. His power curveball already was one of the best in the country and has become more effective now that he also shows a slider he can throw for strikes. His changeup also has improved.

Link

[redsrbetter]

Now, I have to say again that I agree with you guys. The scouts don't see him as a SS, and when they say this, it pretty much means it is a done deal. So, this may all be a non factor real soon.

But, with the Reds not having a viable plan B option in the works, they may have to turn to Frazier just to take a look.

[missionhockey21]

Good, I am glad this isn't happening. In an ideal world, unless Phillips really brings his bat back to the level it was in his breakout season (that earned the monster contract for him), I'd rather see Frazier replace Phillips since it looks unlikely that 3B will be opened up anytime soon and Cabrera's signing shows that the Reds aren't confident enough in his ability to cover SS. I could see him sticking at 2B, at least through his arbitration years.