Thoughts about Bailey?

[missionhockey21]

I thought it was a fantastic start against a pretty tough lineup with the Brewers. Whether it was for one start or not, Bailey had a different presence about himself. It was a presence where he seemed to had channel that emotion into a sense of confidence and focus. He was intense, but in the good way.

His fastball had life again, hitting 94, 95 mph. He controlled the strikezone, although his curve didn't have as much bite as I had hoped. Bailey was thinking though on the mound and it showed. He would use his hard stuff on the corners and outside, versus right down the highway as he did before, and he was definitely mixing it up. His mechanics were consistent, he didn't walk a batter, had a decent amount of strikeouts and he should of been allowed to finish his inning (and that's not hindsight either, he was pitching well and the situation was not critical to take him out from.)

[Doro]

My thought is that he was way too overhyped (which I already knew before his MLB debut). I think hes MAYBE a #3 starter but more likely a #4 unless he can get that breaking ball over. Right now his breaking ball isnt looking much different than a high schoolers, he cant locate it at all and many times leaves as a spinner up and in to righties. Although I dont think he can be a big time starter I do think he could be a big time reliever where he can come in and fire 98mph fastballs for an inning and would be able to get away with a below average curveball and change-up where hitters wouldnt be able to get multiple ABs against him in a game.

Yes his line was good against the Brew Crew but many of that hanging breaking balls would be hammered by a better hitting team.

if you are looking at just pure stuff we already have given up on guys that top Bailey in that category (Kyle Lohse and Matt Belisle, both throw just as hard with more consistent although ball all means not good breaking balls.)

[redsrbetter]

To be honest, I don't know what to think about Bailey. My high hopes for him have diminished some. But I am not sure what to expect. I guess I hope he can at least become a solid number 5 pitcher and perhaps his ceiling is as a decent number 4. I pretty much agree with a lot of what Doro has said here. Then again, I have been a pretty big pessimist lately in hoping not to be dissapointed. And Bailey has dissapointed me already. I just hope that Cueto can become the pitcher we hoped Bailey would be and I would be fine with that.

Then again, you look at his start last week and you start to think like mission has. Maybe he is finally getting his head on straight. I didn't get a chance to see that game, but I have been hearing really good things about it. Perhaps he can build on that and turn this thing around.

Also, good comparison of Bailey and Belisle and Lohse Doro.

[missionhockey21]

I'd disagree on the comps. Lohse has talent, he always had, but his bad starts are just as painful and his service time and age both considerably outweigh's Bailey. Same for Belisle, but his talent is near as much as either.

I don't get the views on Bailey. If he was in AAA and has never seen day 1 of MLB service time, would you really be thinking he MIGHT have #5 potential redsr? What's next, Bruce might be a #7 hitter due to his rookie struggles? I am not guaranteeing Bailey's success, but giving up hope on him at this point is just silly. He isn't 25 or 26, he has plenty of time to develop and any step forward that he takes I'll take with a smile.

That was a critical game that he knew the expectations were high for and maybe had Baker left him in, the Reds would have pulled off the win. Pitching in that situation and absolutely pounding the strikezone, without throwing ball 4 to anyone and having his first positive K/BB ratio of the season.... to to mention the improved velocity shows that 22 year old pitchers can still learn a few more tricks.

He has a long way to go, but crazier things have happened.

[redsrbetter]

I guess I can't compare Bailey and Bruce as far as potential goes because with a pitcher you either have it or you don't. Don't get me wrong, you can learn new pitches and you can learn how to pitch instead of overpowering everyone. But as a hitter, you are either good or you are not. What I mean is, if you are a contact hitter in the minor leagues, you are likely going to make contact at the big league level as well. Then you just have to learn to adjust to big league pitching.

Learning to hit at the big league level takes time. Learning to pitch at the big league level takes even more time. But there is still a good possibility for both of them to work things out.

I'll answer the question:

If he was in AAA and has never seen day 1 of MLB service time, would you really be thinking he MIGHT have #5 potential redsr?

My answer is no because I really would only be able to rate his talent on two things. 1.) His stats (which would be significantly better in a lower level). 2.) The media hype. I wouldn't be able to see his stuff or anything, I would just have to go off of what the edia is saying about him. That gets into why everyone thinks he was overhyped. To be honest, his curveball is nothing compared to what I expected. Even in his debut last year, I liked the performance, but I expected his stuff to be a bit better.

But still, you have a point. He is still very young. I can look at Volquez and see that a young stud pitcher can struggle big time in the big leagues only to figure it out a few years later. So there is still hope. Perhaps I was a bit too quick to call him "just a number 4." But I wouldn't be surprised if that is all he amounted to.

I am going to have to watch that last performance. That should help ease my mind a bit. But the biggest thing that comes out of this is our hoping that he can build on that performance and really make a run at becoming the pitcher we all hope he can be.