Does Dunn stay or go?

[redsrbetter]

I have to admit, I am starting to get a bit nervous. Jocketty has openly admitted that extension talks have not happened for Adam Dunn. He has used the normal excuse that many players don't like to talk contracts during the season, but this is the single most important decision on Jocketty's plate right now. If he wanted to resign Dunn he would have at least talked with him to see if he wanted to stay and get a feel for how much money he would be looking for.

All you hear lately is that this team is in a culture change. I think that directly targets Dunn and Griffey. Perhaps they are not of the culture that the Reds front office is looking for. It's no secret that Griffey will not be resigned. But Dunn is a colossal trivial subject all on it's own.

The dude is consistent year in and year out. He may not be what the fans want him to be, but he is what he is. Lets look at the logic; he is a 1-tool player. But is it that simple? If baseball were to improve it's thinking, perhaps another tool would be added to the mix. That tool would be the ability to take a walk. The single most celebrated stat in baseball today is OPS which is derived from OBP and SLG. Dunn has that stat nailed down. But how can we celebrate that stat without recognizing the ability to take a walk as a tool? I think far too many fans have lost sight of how big that part of the game is.

So, if we add that tool, Dunn is a 2-tool player. Is that worth $13 million per year? Well if he is in the top 5% of league in the league in OPS which is the most telling stat in the game, then he absolutely is.

Let's go beyond that. If Dunn were traded, who would replace him? Of course we know that nobody could bring the same production. But where does Jocketty go? Does he give Votto the shot? Does he let Dunn go to free agency and take the two draft picks then use would-be Dunn money on free agency? Does he go with a Hopper/Freel combination and wait until Frazier is ready? Perhaps he moves Encarnacion to LF and puts Keppinger at 3B and Gonzo/Hairston at SS?

Lets consider the free agents for LF:

Garrett Anderson
Larry Bigbie
Emil Brown
Patt Burrell
Carl Crawford
Jose Cruz Jr.
Cliff Floyd
Luis Gonzalez
Raul Ibanez
Jason Michaels
Craig Monroe
Jay Payton
Wily Mo Pena
Timo Perez
Scott Podsednik
Manny Ramirez
Shannon Stewart
Jose Valentin
Brad Wilkerson


Keep in mind, many of these players will resign with their current clubs. I highlighted two players that could really help this team and are just as easily said to have a snowball's chance in hell in signing with the Reds. Then again, if Dunn and Griffey's salaries are off the books, we may be able to... oh wait, nevermind, Harang and Arroyo will be getting that money and I don't see them being moved anytime soon. Any other LF on that list look intriguing? I can guarantee you they all likely have at least one more tool than Dunn, but can any of them really bring you the same production?

[Kingdom]

Manny signing with Cincinnati? Are there a lot of drugs involved?

[redsrbetter]

Manny signing with Cincinnati? Are there a lot of drugs involved?

Exactly. He would sign with the Yankees before he ever thought of the Reds.

[Kingdom]

Better yet, are you on a lot of drugs?

[redsrbetter]

Did you read the title post? I mentioned that we would never get him, but they are the only leftfielders that would bring replacement production to Dunn.

[Doppelgänger]

Lets just move Patterson over to left. Problem solved!

[missionhockey21]

Are you serious.... Carl Crawford could equal Dunn's production? Dunn's defense is no longer a negative aspect, he is pretty much middle of the pack depending on the metrics you use. Do you think Crawford's +12 clean SB's (he was caught stealing 6 times) and plus defense really makes up for his .717 OPS to equal Dunn's?

I am not trying to call you out, but if you want to talk about someone who could be overpaid and become virtually worthless after a serious ankle/leg injury, there is your man. Even when Dunn is slumping horrendously, he posts an OPS to what Crawford currently has overall. I'd much rather go after Pat Burrell, but I can't see why he wouldn't be in Dunn salary territory (or similar at least.)

[redsrbetter]

I may have overvalued Crawford without looking at his current stats, but he is still a leader in the group of leftfielders mentioned. His career OBP is 50 points lower than Dunn's career. So that is a major difference. So he wouldn't be comparable to Dunn's production at all. But I may take a look at grabbing him if Dunn were to become a free agent after this season. Crawford + two draft picks next year may be a good return for Dunn.

I hope some didn't read this as a means for us to get rid of Dunn. I was more pointing out that it would be too hard to replace him.

[missionhockey21]

I may have overvalued Crawford without looking at his current stats, but he is still a leader in the group of leftfielders mentioned. His career OBP is 50 points lower than Dunn's career. So that is a major difference. So he wouldn't be comparable to Dunn's production at all. But I may take a look at grabbing him if Dunn were to become a free agent after this season. Crawford + two draft picks next year may be a good return for Dunn.

I hope some didn't read this as a means for us to get rid of Dunn. I was more pointing out that it would be too hard to replace him.

No I get that and I wasn't trying to say you were gung ho about this. A guy like Crawford though would cost a pretty penny for his youth alone and the fact that he has had very favored baseball skills and thus a "good name." I think Crawford is a better player than what he is currently showing, same for Dunn, but if Crawford has an off year his production is much more diminished as Dunn having a bad year is still not entirely pretty to look at but it does bring production numbers.

If I was Jocketty, I would talk seriously and realistically with Dunn. Cincinnati is not a giant market team and the payroll is going up. If he was willing to take a two year deal at the same price with backloaded cash in the future and player options for the 3rd and 4th year.... I think it might make some sense. Dunn could get out and go to free agency when he's 31 if the Reds are going nowhere or he turns up production, or he could stay in Cincy.

It's a real shame that the Reds didn't have the forsight to lock him up to a longer, cheaper deal when he was younger. This situation might be a lot more easy to deal with had they done that.

[redsrbetter]

Agreed,

I wish they locked him up for one of the 10 year deals you are seeing a lot of the young studs getting now. I guess it's the nature of the beast though. But like I said, I really fear we are not going to see Dunn get an extension because no talks have gone on at all yet.