Reds Survivor - Round 23

[Porter]

Lopez

[Slyder]

My vote is for Dunn, all three are deserving to be there with Lopez being the most complete hitter of the two hitters left. Man I wonder what the chances at the start of the year we would be playing this game and two of the final three would be Harang and Lopez?

Harangs been our best pitcher period, Dunns a good hitter but I like how much more Lopez can do for this team.

My vote Dunn.

[Slyder]

Votes so far
Dunn 5
Lopez 5
Harang still spotless

Breakdown
Dunn Votes Krazy, Wally, RedsRBetter, Ghetto, Slyder,
Lopez Votes CRF, AD44 (welcome back), Waruv, Cincy, Porter

[Reds_fan_4_life]

Dunn...

[griffeyfan3]

dunn

[CincyRedsFan30]

Isn't anyone else going to help Dunn out here or will he be taken from us before his time?

[missionhockey21]

It's a tough vote. FeLo is giving us a legit powerful bat from the SS spot and is at the tops for NL SS in terms of SLG%. Then again this is not about who is performing well for their position, just who is performing. With that said, Dunn has most of the major stats over FeLo and has shown he has produced and contributed more. I think what it comes down to is people think Dunn can do more (which I agree with) and FeLo has done more than we expected. So my vote is bye bye FeLo.

[CincyRedsFan30]

More evidence against those who claim Dunn doesn't hit well in clutch situations:

Lopez with RISP:

.154/.255/.282/.537

Dunn with RISP:

.211/.483/.474/.957

Close and Late(ESPN defines it as: results in the 7th inning or later with the batting team either ahead by one run, tied or with the potential tying run at least on deck. )

Lopez:

.200/.200/.350/.550

Dunn:

.259/.412/.630/1.042

Dunn not coming through in RBI situations is a pure myth. The fact is, he is placed 5th in the lineup, which isn't a good spot for him. After Randa, he doesn't have hitters that strike fear behind him. His OBP skills would be best utilized in the 2nd or 3rd spots in the lineup, with Freel/Lopez right ahead of him or Freel ahead of him and then someone else right behind him.

If he was batting 3rd like Pujols does for the Cards for example, he'd be placed in more RBI situations, because he wouldn't be walked as much as he is. (There is a reason he has 17 more BB on the year than Pujols). Pujols has hitters like Edmonds, Grudzielanek and others behind him in the order).

Oh, and if you thought Pujols hit well in the close and late situations, check this out:

.200/.333/.300/.633

All of Dunn's numbers have been better than Pujols' in those situations.

[CincyRedsFan30]

And for those who are going to try to argue that Pujols' numbers with RISP in general are better than Dunn's, notice that while Pujols has one more walk in those situations, he also has had 14 more AB than Dunn, and being that Dunn has walked more than one time per every four AB with RISP, he would have a few more BB in those situations than Pujols would with that number of AB.

Dunn has also had to deal with fewer RISP to begin with, since he doesn't have Eckstein/Walker in front of him to get on base ahead of him. Casey/Griffey both struggled in April and that made it much more likely he wouldn't have any runners on base ahead of him when he came to bat then.(.335 OBP for Griffey on the year(even worse earlier on) and .369 for Casey(worse earlier on).

Eckstein/Walker= .377/.347

Just to show that those two have been more consistent all year than Casey/Grifey, here are their April/May numbers:

Walker: .264/.361/.778(April)
.250/.353/.811 (May)

Eckstein: .260/.367/.678
.328/.386/.835(More BA driven that month)

The same thing for Casey/Griffey:

Casey: .276/.323/.679(April)
.361/.415/.920(May)

Griffey: .244/.315/.681
.283/.345/.901

Another thing to consider when it comes to Dunn having runners on for RBI situations is the fact that Casey has hit into 12 DP's(albeit most of them earlier in the year). Griffey has hit into 3 himself(for a total of 15 between the two of them)

Eckstein/Walker= 5/6= 11 (4 fewer DP's, 4 fewer RBI situations for Dunn vs. Pujols).

[missionhockey21]

Nice research on the Pujols stat. And I agree that if Dunn was placed higher in the lineup he would get more pitches to hit thus a prettier statline. How many times have seen Dunn draw a walk and get left on base? I wish there was a stat calculated for that because I know it's been a common event in a Reds game. Why should a pitcher give Dunn something to hit when batting 5th? If he was higher in the order he would have more chances to produce runs and score runs with better batters behind him. I know all this is a lot of "ifs and buts." It's just so foolish to bat Dunn 5th. We know he chases pitches sometimes with RISP because he feels that pressure to produce but oftentimes he isnt getting much to hit. I really believe that if Dunn was placed higher in the order you would see a big boost on his stat line.

Also this isn't the reason why I voted FeLo over Dunn, just some random thoughts. I can post my reasoning with statistical backing if neccessary to show how Dunn has outproduced FeLo.

[CincyRedsFan30]

I bet Dunn's average/OBP/OPS/RC/RBI/HR and everything else would go up if he were to bat 2nd or 3rd in the lineup as opposed to 5th.

[Wally Mo Pena]

batting dunn fifth is stupid, and i agree that he would have better numbers third in the lineup. But batting second certainly isn't a better rbi spot, it's worse. Second is where the table setters hit, not the table clearers. So felipe has more of a burden and he gets guys in more often.

There is more to Dunn's lack of Rbi than just where he bats, or his averages with risp. Dunn never has productive outs, and has trouble getting people in in general. Felipe gets guys in because he can control his bat more, he'll get the ball to the OF, or he'll get it to the right side. Dunn swings hard and usually whifs, walks, or occasionally goes yard.

Of the batters with the top 50 OPS in the majors, the average is one rbi every every 5.08 AB's. Dunn's is one every 6.29, which gives him around 80 over 500 ABs, and that is too low for someone that "good." In fact the only one lower is nick johnson at 6.3.

The top 20 OPS guys with over 50 AB's average one rbi every 1.52 games, dunn averages one every 1.92 games, which gives him 80 over 155 games AND THAT IS TOO LOW. Only mike cameron and david deluci are worse.

Felipe gets an RBI every 1.6 games (97 over 155 games). Felipe gets the job done and he works hard to do it. Dunn is lazy and overrated, and doesn't live up to the production standards his numbers imply.

[AdamDunn#44]

Dunn overrated? First of heard of that. Underrated? Very much.

I consider almost every atbat by Dunn productive. Know why? he average around 4.2 pitches per atbat. He really wears the pitcher down and lets his peers get to see the type of pitches a picther throws.

RBI is the most overrated stat I've ever seen. Its team depended. Not his fault at all that the guys in front of him weren't getting on base.

Another reason why Dunn's rbi total is so low is because of the order he hits in. It seems like Dunn leads off an inning everytime. How is he suppoed to drive in runs if he is always leading off innings?

and nice use of those stats CRF

[CincyRedsFan30]

Dunn is gone just like he was gone from tonight's lineup.

He gone!