Keep Bailey in AAA

[missionhockey21]

The game tonight, despite the runs scored, just was not pretty. It's not even the amount of walks he had, but his inability to complete pitches (several times he seem to give up on it mid-motion.) He has worked on a decent slider, which is a nice compliment and alternative pitch in between the polar opposite pitches of the dead straight fastball and the gigantic curve, but outside of that, he really just does not look ready for Major League bats.

He goes early in the count with that giant breaking ball and the smart hitters just use it as a waste pitch, they take it and wait for a fastball. Last year he was able to locate the curve a bit better (he thew it for a strike like 65% of the time.) But Bailey looked tired I must say, and I could tell that was wearing on him later in the game, but he really needs hone in his mechanics.

If he can continue to work on that slider, get a bit more movement on his fastball and learn how to better control his curve.... the stuff will be nasty for any level of competition. He can get that work in at AAA and come up not only confident (which doesn't seem to be a problem for him), but ready.

[Providence A's]

just trade him to the A's...seriously, from what I've read it seems the current opinion is that Bailey seems to think he's figured it out/knows it all...and that he's fallen out of favor with the Reds a little.

[missionhockey21]

He has not fallen out of favor with the Reds. The local media likes to blow things up, just like the fans do. Take Hamilton as an example, he was the golden boy and a shining example of turning your life around to many in the media and many fans. He gets traded (along with his enormous upside) and fans and press alike act as if he is a threat to spiral down the path of drugs at any moment. In other words, the winds change direction quickly in Cincinnati.

He is cocky, but I am sure Bailey is not the first 21 year old to think he has it all figured out. Unless Cueto and Volquez pitch HUGE and the Reds need a serious young bat for the majors, I can't see them moving Bailey this year. If he doesn't progress much in the next year or two, I can see him being shopped. But I think many loose sight that several top prospects in the game are in AA and are Bailey's age. He is ahead of his peers and ahead of many of his peers who come out with college experience, the Reds are going to be patient with his development. Signing guys like Fogg and Affeldt to short deals indicate that they are willing to give the young guys their chance, but they have the veterans there to step in should they not be ready.

Besides, Krivsky seems to want to take on players with problems but potential (Phillips had a notorious attitude problem for example) so I can't see him giving up on the former #1/2 prospect in the game of last year.

[redsrbetter]

The things you listed that Bailey needs to take care of before he will be ready for the bigtime are just the things that will keep in the minor leagues for quite a while.

We are talking about honing mechanics, getting movement on a fastball, tooling with a slider, and working on command with every pitch in his arsenal.

I am definitely not ready to trade him, but if the right deal came along, I wouldn't be as opposed to it as I may have been just a month ago. But I do agree with one thing, I want to see how Cueto and Volquez fair before I give up on Bailey as well.

I am just glad we have those two. Krivsky can be extremely patient with Homer and that will do nothing but help a whole lot.

As far as his attitude goes, I just hope it doesn't stand in the way of his needing to fresh up on his command and his stuff.

[missionhockey21]

The fact that there is real competition, his direction competition, will get him on track. He see's a guy like Aaron Harang as the staff ace (rightly so) and not someone in his peer group or a comparison point in terms of expectations. But Cueto? Volquez? Even Maloney? Yep. And the better guys like Cueto and Volquez fair in the majors while Bailey is the AAA staff, the more he feels like he needs to get to their level and exceed their performance.

Bailey has been lauded by praise, not only from the baseball media but also from the Reds front office. It wasn't too long ago that Bailey really was our only serious pitching prospect and Cueto was viewed with a lot more skepticism. I think by knowing he was their boy and knowing that many regarded him with high potential, he rested on his laurels and minor league dominance. Now he has to show he can command the at-bat like his peers and not just flash some brilliant stuff here or there. To be frank, if Fogg can hold down a 4.50 ERA, I wouldn't mind if Bailey sat in AAA the whole year and honed his mechanics to the point that his stuff can only be described as controllable nastiness. I think the main thing is him getting movement on his fastball and working on the control of his breaking ball, when those two development points coincide, he would have enough of an arsenal to really start blowing away hitters.

[redsrbetter]

That is true. Seeing his peer group of young studs tearing it up without him has got to make him want to figure things out. I don't think he is so messed up in the head that he can't have the desire to be better. It is going to be very interesting.

[NFLman2033]

the problem is that if we take a wait and see attitude about him being able to mold himself into a dominate pitcher that he has the tools for and he doesn't, his stock will only get worse..

with that said.. you never really want to trade Pitching unless you have to.. we can afford to take the wait and see approach because we really don't have much choice.. we are not going to be able to pay for pitching so we have to develope it.. dealing with Bailey is the only way the orgainzation can learn how to handle these young guys.. which we will have to get used to in order to build the system from the ground up like we have been trying.. IMO i have a bad feeling he will never pan out.. but i have always been cynical about the reds so its not that i am not wishing and hoping he gets his act together... but the truth is we have talked about his High Pitch Count since he was in Rookie A ball.. some time in AAA to work on it without the pressure of the SHow.. could be what he needs

[missionhockey21]

True, but his stock as of right now has been hurt by his performance and perceived attitude problems. If the Reds were real gusty, they could have traded him last year prior to his callup and gotten quite a ransom in return. But I agree, Bailey and his development will be an interesting test for the organization and knowing how to handle a talent that isn't quite there.... but could be there with the right management and instruction.

For our sake, let's hope he is handled right.

[Doppelgänger]

I just hope he has been humbled. He now sees that he isn't going to be given a rotation spot just on his ability, which was what everyone had penciled in before spring training. He still has awesome stuff, that will never change. We can only hope he figures it all out and doesn't give up on himself.

[redsrbetter]

I am starting to wonder about his "awesome stuff" now though. A few opposing hitters have been quoted in saying that he has one of the straightest fastballs in baseball. That is not considered even close to good stuff.

I am worried as NFLman is. I try not to be so cynical, but this may be a case of overhyped prospect. Yet, we all know that he has dominated lower levels. As the organization waits, I will wait and see myself.

For now, it is Volquez and Cueto time. And I fully expect these two to struggle a bit this season as well.

[missionhockey21]

Again though, how many kids his age are dominating the big leagues? A much larger majority are either in college or still in the minors. To compare his stuff, which is obviously not fully developed, to what we would want in the majors is not fair to him at his age.

[redsrbetter]

That is going to have to be what we lean on this season as far as Homer is concerned. I will have to learn to be a little more patient. I am just the type that worries a bit more than most people do.

Hope for the best, but expect the worst kind of thing.

[Doppelgänger]

Bailey no question has the potential to be a great pitcher. I'm more worried about him not wanting to work hard enough to get there. I don't know what it is about him but I get the vibe that he thinks hecan make it just on natural ability, and nothing to this point has proven him wrong. This is his make or break season in my mind, either he gets it together or he doesn't. He has to put work in to get better, and its not clear to me if he is up to that task. He has plenty of time, but the longer it takes the less likely he is to put in the work required for his success.

[brewersfan19]

I thought he was the next great pitcher in the MLB. WHat happened?

[redsrbetter]

I am pretty sure we will be heated about this topic all season. If you guys are anything like me, you will be bringing up the past in hopes that this guy can be who we have all anticipated him being.

Should be fun...