Livan Hernandez?

[redsrbetter]

Ok guys,

We have all conjured the thought of adding Livan Hernandez. But the questions are two fold. Is Krivsky after this guy? And, would it benefit the team to sign him?

From John Fay:

I talked to Wayne Krivsky today for my Sunday Insider -- it's going to be on Jay Bruce, thus the previous post -- I asked him if the Reds were in on talks with any of the remaining free agent starters.

"You can assume that," he said.

The two I mentioned were Jon Lieber and Livan Hernandez. The thing that signing either would do is move Matt Belisle back into competition for a spot. Right now, Belisle's pretty much guaranteed a spot. I expect Belisle to be better this year, but his ERA was 5.32 last year and he gave up 212 hits in 177 innings.

We can take from that and say that Krivsky is likely in talks with these guys. Would you rather have Lieber or Hernandez?

It was also reported on XM that Krivsky is making Livan a prime target. So there are two sources that share their thoughts on Krivsky's mindset.

Now, is it a good idea to go after this guy? Lets look at a few numbers.

2005: 3.07 BB/9 5.37 K/9 0.91 HR/9
2006: 3.19 BB/9 5.46 K/9 1.35 HR/9
3.38 BB/9 5.06 K/9 0.91 HR/9 (with Nats)
2007: 3.48 BB/9 3.96 K/9 1.50 HR/9

Looks like his HR rate is rising, his BB rate is rising, and his K rate is dropping. Imagine these numbers getting worse in GABP and you have someone that will truly hurt your ballclub. Both with money and lost games.

Yes, he does eat innings. He will get you 200 IP next year. But he is no Harang. I know it would be nice to have another guy who can go deep into the game and save the bullpen from getting ripped up. But at what cost? I don't think these numbers are favorable to our chances at winning.

But, is it better to take our chances shuffling our young arms? I find it hard to believe that we are making a case to win if starting the season off with two of our young arms in the rotation. Yes, these 4 (Bailey, Cueto, Volquez, Maloney) should all make strides to the make the rotation sometime in '08, but they can't be counted on to succeed. But are they still a better option than Hernandez?

[NFLman2033]

not with how much we will have to overpay to get him