Keith Law: Rangers get best of Hamilton trade

[realmofotalk]

There's some risk involved, but there's a very good chance by acquiring Josh Hamilton, the Rangers just picked up a middle-of-the-order bat who's about to enter his prime years in exchange for a hard-throwing young pitcher (Edinson Volquez) with more risks around his future. For the Reds, they cash in some of their outfield surplus to add some pitching depth, but it's surprising to see a club aiming to contend in 2008 take a young arm in return, rather than using that surplus to acquire a starter who can push them toward 85-90 wins now.

The Rangers' system is full of pitching prospects, and they have a good number of infield and catching prospects, but they're light in the outfield, with 2007 draftee Julio Borbon probably the best of that group. Hamilton immediately becomes the best center fielder the Rangers have had in a decade -- all apologies to Laynce Nix, Tom Goodwin and Damon Buford -- and has a good chance to be the best hitter in the Rangers' 2008 lineup. Hamilton was a five-tool player coming out of high school, and he's a four-tool player now, with his speed diminished by injuries. He has good bat speed and centers the ball well, shows at least 30-homer power, plus a cannon arm and above-average range in center. In limited time, he showed a patient approach at the plate and a willingness to work deep counts, although that will be tested with a full season of playing time in 2008.

The risks with Hamilton are obvious. One is his history of substance abuse, which kept him out of pro ball for almost four full seasons; we know he's been clean for at least 18 months, and you can be sure the Rangers are going to have a support system in place. (If I'm Rangers general manager Jon Daniels, I track down Johnny Narron, who has known Hamilton since the kid was in high school and who was Hamilton's personal coach in Cincinnati, and hire him to fill the same role in Texas.)

The bigger concern is Hamilton's history of injuries. He's had at least two operations on each knee, although his knees didn't pose any trouble in 2007. He missed time with an intestinal ailment and then a hamstring pull this season, playing in just 90 games. It's fair to say he's injury-prone, and he's going to face fatigue issues if he stays healthy for a full season at some point. However, these are risks worth taking if you're Texas because of the sheer magnitude of Hamilton's talent.

In exchange, the Reds get Volquez, a 24-year-old right-hander with five years in pro ball who still is more a thrower than a pitcher. He has a strong two-pitch combo in his fastball and changeup; his fastball is 91-96 mph and is "heavy," so he breaks a number of bats and it's hard for hitters to drive the ball, but he doesn't generate groundballs. His changeup is his best secondary pitch, always plus and occasionally rating a 65 or 70 on the 20-80 scale, making him more effective against left-handed hitters than right-handed hitters.

But Volquez has some significant red flags. His control has never been good, with 150 walks over the last two years in about 330 innings, and his fastball command is fringe-average; despite the heaviness of his heater, he's still been homer-prone in Texas, and heads now to another hitter-friendly park. Volquez still doesn't have an average breaking ball and it seems likely that at this point, he never will, in which case, he's much more likely to end up in the bullpen. If he's going to be a starter long-term, it's hard to envision him as more than a fourth starter because of the lack of a third pitch, although he could be an excellent short reliever with that two-pitch repertoire because he won't have the large platoon split so many short relievers have. The Reds also received Danny Ray Herrera, a slight 5-foot-6 lefty with a low-80s fastball and a curveball right out of the 1940s. He's a quality organizational player, but pitchers with grade-35 fastballs do not pitch in the majors, especially not in a hitter's park like Great American.

Even if Hamilton settles in as a 120-game, 500-plate appearance hitter, it will be hard for Volquez to perform well enough to provide more value to the Reds than Hamilton will to the Rangers. Add to that the normal risks associated with pitchers and the fact that Hamilton can contribute right away while Volquez has yet to show he's ready to pitch regularly in the majors and the exchange clearly favors Texas.

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[Doppelgänger]

I think the Reds just didn't see it as a possibility to keep Hamilton. Once they fired Jerry, Johnny wasn't going to stay and Hamilton isn't ready to be in the world on his own just yet. I wish Hamilton luck, I just hope Volquez learns to throw a deuce.

[catman]

In order to get talent, one must give talent up. Both sides did just this. Both teams got players with issues and pretty big upsides. All of the players involved could become stars, or all could fall on their faces and make this trade irrelevant.

[love_that_reefer]

I don't see how the Rangers get the best of the trade. Reds needed pitching far more than offense and Hamilton is no sure thing.

[redsrbetter]

Hamilton is not a sure thing, but he is pretty close to it. I think many see this on one account. They appreciate Krivsky's push to add to the rotation, but they see that he traded a guy that has made an impact for a guy who has the potential to do the same. We know that Hamilton will produce if he is healthy and if he stays clean. But we don't know that Volquez will produce at all.

I still love the trade though. Hamilton was by far my favorite Red last year and many Reds fans feel the same way. But once you get past the personal feelings you have toward it, you realize you basically got another Johnny Cueto and have Jay Bruce to step in to fill the Hamilton void.

I think many Reds fans wanted to see Bruce and Hamilton in the same outfield. As did I. But it is far more important for us to shore up the rotation than to have a good 4th outfielder.

The only way I can see this being a better trade is if we traded Dunn to the Rangers. I know many think I am crazy, but I would rather have Hamilton's talent than Dunn's. I would much rather have Hamilton's affordability as well. Perhaps Dunn would have gained us a bigger return as well. Maybe Hurley instead of Volquez?

But that is neither here nor there since what's done is done. And I am still glad at the looks of our lineup and am even happier with the prospects of our pitching staff.

[missionhockey21]

Wait, something Keith Law writes actually warrants discussion?

[redsrbetter]

Hey its the offseason. Screw it! Should we talk about Kearns coming back instead?

[realmofotalk]

Wait, something Keith Law writes actually warrants discussion?

Well, he is J.P. Ricciardi's former pet sabermetrician. That's as far as we get to any opinion by one of those with front office experience, unless you'd be willing to talk Paul DePodesta out of hiding from the press.

[love_that_reefer]

Hamilton only played in 90 games. The jury is still out on this guy. Hell even Bob Hamelin and Pat Listach had one good year. Reds needed pitching a lot more than an OFer who has problems on and off the field.

[redsrbetter]

Yeah the jury is still out, I agree. But he still has shown that he can hang with big leaguers. He can play at the big league level. Whereas, Volquez has not done that yet. That is what everyone is hung up on.

Krivsky dealt ability for potential. But I am definitely cool with it because it helped us out in our weak spot.

[love_that_reefer]

I see it as potential for potential and addressing a bigger need. Two arms for a big question mark is a good move for this franchise.

[realmofotalk]

Volquez, too, is a big question mark.

[love_that_reefer]

Agreed but at least he can pitch. If Hamilton pitched and played CF then it would be a different story.

[redsrbetter]

The Reds are currently striken with 3 pitching question marks honestly.

Bailey has all the potential in the world, but his groin injury set him back and made him look disgusting compared what was expected of his debut.

Cueto is said to have great command and poise to play now. But he is not "dominant."

Volquez has the same problems as Bailey. A ton of potential, but has command problems.

All are expected to make something of themselves, but all are question marks as well.

[Kingdom]

Considering what Texas has these days, it's every much filling a need as it is for Cincy. And Volquez is no sure thing, especially at the Great American TeeBall Park. So no one wins until we see what these guys can do in new organizations.