Alex Rios

[Newman4]

I saw a couple of rumors of the Reds being interested in Alex Rios. Mentioned was the Giants offering Tim Linecum and the Reds possibly countering with Homer Bailey. I was thinking of a different twist to this....

Looking at the Reds lineup it's very LH heavy and the Jays are very RH heavy. How about Adam Dunn for Alex Rios? (Assuming of course that Dunn accepts a trade)

[missionhockey21]

The word out of Toronto is Rios is moving for an arm and that's about it. I can't see them wanting to swap a bat for a bat if their hoping to nab a high impact (despite the injury concerns) guy like Lincecum.

[Halladay_is_God]

its true Rios has been talked about it as trade bait for a pitcher

last year it was for Cole Hamels, which Philly didn't want to give up

now the shift is towards Lincecum or Cain. which seem like the Giants don't want to give up even with their lineup.

as for Homer Bailey, I could see a lot of interest from the Jays' side but would the Reds sacrifice a pitcher like Bailey for a RF/CF that can hit .300 30 HR, and maybe steal 30 bases?

I would love to see Dunn in Toronto I don't see the Jays are looking that way due to Dunn's contract.

[redsrbetter]

Here is my thought on this. Maybe the Reds do have interest. Maybe they would like to take Rios to flip him in a trade with the O's for Bedard. Maybe this scenario is being played out:

Bailey for Rios.

Then

Rios, Hamilton, Cueto for Bedard

Or the Reds keep Rios and trade Bruce, Hamilton, Cueto to the O's for Bedard.

[love_that_reefer]

Problem with the first proposal is that you would be trading Bailey, Rios, Hamilton and Cueto for Bedard.

[redsrbetter]

Problem with the first proposal is that you would be trading Bailey, Rios, Hamilton and Cueto for Bedard.

Which is the same as trading Bailey, Cueto, and Hamilton for Bedard right now. Rios isn't ours until Bailey is traded for him.

I just think that Krivsky is doing what he can to keep Bruce and still get Bedard.

[redsrbetter]

Then again, Bailey, Cueto, and Hamilton are too large a package for Bedard IMO.

So is Rios, Hamilton, Cueto or Bruce, Hamilton, Cueto. Obviously if Bailey is traded to the Jays, we still know that the O's will want a SP spect. Would Maloney be enough? Or does it have to be Cueto?

I think a package of Rios/Bruce, Maloney, Stubbs would work. Then we would have Bruce/Rios (whichever isn't dealt), Cueto, Votto, and Hamilton still to go along with Bedard.

Huge!

[love_that_reefer]

Then just trade those guys. No point in getting Rios if you are going to trade him away.

[redsrbetter]

Or else, we get Rios and trade either Griffey or Dunn for pitching?

[redsrbetter]

Then just trade those guys. No point in getting Rios if you are going to trade him away.

Yes there is a point. Krivsky would likely rather trade Bailey than Bruce. This allows you to do that. Or at least gives you someone who is good enough to replace Bruce in Rios. Then he can be traded.

We can't get Bedard right now unless Bruce is traded to them. But Krivsky might be figuring out if Rios is a good enough replacement for Bruce in a deal for Bedard.

[GiantsFanatic]

I think trading Bailey/Lincecum straight up for Rios is a rip off for the Reds/Giants, Toronto gota atleast add a pitching prospect or something.

[redsrbetter]

Let me try and explain this better:

Bailey to Jays for Rios

then

Rios or Bruce, Maloney, and Stubbs to O's for Bedard

Jays get Bailey
O's get Rios or Bruce, Maloney, and Stubbs
Reds get to keep Rios or Bruce and also get Bedard

Essentially you are trading Bailey, Maloney, and Stubbs for Bedard and keeping Bruce.

[love_that_reefer]

Then the Reds would be giving up Bailey, Rios, Hamilton and Cueto for one player. Not too smart.

[redsrbetter]

You still dont get it man. We dont have Rios and Bailey at the same time ever. Essentially, they are the same player. But Rios or Bruce may be the better fit for the Orioles. They may not want Bailey or at least would rather have Bruce or Rios.

Our current trading block looks like this:

Bailey, Votto, Hamilton, Bruce, Cueto, Maloney, Stubbs etc.

Once we trade Bailey to the Jays for Rios, Bailey=Rios. Then we flip Rios and a few spects for Bedard.

[Mario-Rijo]

You still dont get it man. We dont have Rios and Bailey at the same time ever. Essentially, they are the same player. But Rios or Bruce may be the better fit for the Orioles. They may not want Bailey or at least would rather have Bruce or Rios.

Our current trading block looks like this:

Bailey, Votto, Hamilton, Bruce, Cueto, Maloney, Stubbs etc.

Once we trade Bailey to the Jays for Rios, Bailey=Rios. Then we flip Rios and a few spects for Bedard.

I think you are on to something here RRB. The O's do have some pitching, granted Bedard is a big part of that equation but they still have some youth at that position. However the O's want to put some solid position players on the field to pair with Nick Markakis. If they can get a good package of offensive talent while only giving up the one pitcher it makes a lot of sense for them.

It was rumored that Toronto had interest in Bedard (obviously) and no question Rios was likely a major chip in that scenario. The reason Toronto wants Bedard is the same reason they wouldn't mind having Bailey, a power arm who gives them yet another horse in the rotation. The key here is the dynamics of all 3 organizations both currently and into the future.

Let me give you an example of what I mean, Rios and what from Toronto constitutes a package of young (yet near MLB ready) upcoming offensive players that Baltimore needs? I won't pretend to know what the Jays have that fits that description but apparently not enough as both teams seemed to have moved on rather quickly away from one another. However I'm sure the O's would love to have Rios and the Jays would love to have another impact arm so now onto the Red's.

The Red's want Bedard and the O's have said, "Hey we would love to make a deal with you and Bailey and Cueto are very good, however we need offense and we have some reservations about Hamilton's history, we like him but he's risky. Dunn's really a luxury at the money he is making that doesn't make sense for a re-building club to have. Now you have Jay Bruce and we could certainly agree on a lesser 3rd player rather easily if you give us both he and Votto, what do you think"? Well of course we aren't gonna give up the crown jewel of the organization and Votto if we don't have to. So the Red's catch wind that Rios was a major chip in the possible deal that Toronto was offering and hear that they are shopping him for an impact arm. Well if Cincy's original offer revolved around Bailey, Votto and whatever then it would make sense to turn Bailey around to Toronto for Rios.

Wow now the Reds have both Rios and Votto plus a 3rd slightly lesser player to offer to the team who needs the offense. Now the O's accept what amounts to the same deal: impact player + Votto + whatever. The Jays are happy to have gotten a young future ACE and the Red's are happy to have gotten Bedard w/o giving up Bruce. And they did it w/o trading within there division so as not to incur the wrath of their fan base for dealing those guys to each other. Now we just have to tweak the deal a bit to get the exact best deals for everyone just to clarify what everyone wants to know. What makes these deals work?

The 1st trade to go down has to be the Red's and Jays so the Red's have to ask the O's if they will accept a specific deal and cross their fingers that they can trust the O's not to jerk them around for more afterwards. Ideally this should be a 3 way deal and could be, the only issue would be some minor PR work to console the Jay's fans that they would have to see Rios come back to haunt them. But that shouldn't be that difficult to spin given their current circumstances.

The deal:

The Jays get - Homer Bailey, Ryan Hanigan (C Reds), Paul Janish (SS Reds)

The Red's get - Erik Bedard & Randor Beird (Rule V pick RHSP)

The O's get - Alex Rios, Joey Votto, Chris Dickerson (CF Reds) and Sergio Santos (SS Jays)

Seem fair?

The Jays trade Rios and Santos

The O's trade Bedard and Beird

The Red's Trade Bailey, Votto, Dickerson, Hanigan and Janish