Reds are interested in Bedard

[redsrbetter]

The scenario is that the O's will only communicate if Bruce and plenty more are offered. The Reds are torn and are waiting to see if MacPhail will come down on his asking price.

That will definitely not happen. Once Santana is dealt, the price for Bedard will go way up. Then teams like the Yankees and all the others will start offering the farm. We have the prospects to match any offer, but at the same time, thankfully Krivsky is not that dumb. I think we have to lay off the Bedard thing and definitely concentrate the trade thoughts elsewhere.

[redsrbetter]

Some insights from O's fans elsewhere:

A) The Mets deal has already been rejected, meaning accoring to our GM (and I'm holding him to his word, which may mean little, this is true) the Orioles have received four "promising deals" better than what they have to offer.

B) Realistically, Kershaw is not the 3rd Dodger player. Kemp & Broxton alone are big pieces and have been confirmed. The third player is likely not as "hot" as Kershaw, and besides, Kershaw is NOT MLB READY.

C) I don't know who the Mariners are offering... Dan, is Jones/Morrow/Clement from a source? Jones has to be the major piece.

D) Again, the Reds can probably offer Hamilton, Votto and Cueto and get away with it, if they don't want to give up Bruce or Bailey. But that's as low an offer they'll get away with considering the other offers on the table. I think it's reasonable in exchange for someone with a decent chance to win the Cy Young in either league next season... and they still keep their top two prospects. AND he's signed through two more years.

[love_that_reefer]

Kershaw has the potential to be better than Bedard.

[redsrbetter]

which makes sense why he isn't in the deal for the Dodgers. Thank God!

[redsrbetter]

Can we beat this offer from the Phillies? Is it good enough for MacPhail?

Bedard reportedly spurned a three-year contract extension offered by Orioles’ management. According to a baseball source, the Phillies offered Kyle Kendrick, Shane Victorino and a pair of unnamed prospects to net the southpaw. The Phillies do not comment on trade rumors.

Link

I think this is a close deal. Kendrick was pretty awesome last year.

[NFLman2033]

honestly for a guy like Bedard i have no problems losing Bruce.. seriously no position prospect is worth losing out on a proven 28 yr old SP

[redsrbetter]

Still, the thing I am nervous about is his likelihood of not extending his contract with whatever team he is traded to. Bedard has 2 tears left before he becomes a free agent. So is it really worth giving up the number 1 prospect in baseball and more?

[Mario-Rijo]

Still, the thing I am nervous about is his likelihood of not extending his contract with whatever team he is traded to. Bedard has 2 tears left before he becomes a free agent. So is it really worth giving up the number 1 prospect in baseball and more?

I wouldn't concern myself with losing Bruce RRB, it ain't going to happen nor should it. If Bruce was a part of any deal it would have already been done, bank on it. Bruce is the biggest chip in any of the reported deals, Kershaw being 2nd and Kemp probably 3rd running neck in neck with Adam Jones. Bruce is the one with the most likely to reach and highest ceiling combined with closeness to the majors. Kemp is extremely close mind you but he isn't as likely to reach his pinnacle as Bruce appears to be and Kershaw just happens to be a little further away (just now headed to AA, in a very quick ascent), otherwise he would be the biggest chip.

Problem is we aren't as likely to give up Bruce as L.A. is to give up one of theirs. They will likely send Kemp in the deal which is the top chip that's actually ava., so we must give up the next biggest chip (Bailey) and the next biggest chip of these guys Morrow/Cueto/Votto/Hamilton/Phillips/Laroche/Broxton/Clement/Meloan/Balentein/Hu/Chen/Lopez.

My guess is the time when this deal may take place is when we start to hear who of L.A. and Seattle win the Hiroki Kuroda sweepstakes. It at the very least lessens the blow of needing Bedard and therefore the winner may just decide to keep their prospects and move on, which would then leave the other to fight it out with Cincy for Bedards services. I am rooting for L.A. to get Kuroda because I think we have a better potential package than Seattle, although admittedly it's fairly close as a package of Jones/Morrow/Clement Or Balentein could be perceived as a better package than Bailey/Hamilton/Votto unless Bruce is then tossed in or Cueto. And I don't like the idea of dealing either Bailey and Bruce or Cueto in any deal.

My guess is we could have him if we sell the farm Bailey, Bruce and Votto as I think that tops nearly anything the other 2 teams can throw at them but that won't likely happen. So it hinges on the rest above, who gets Kuroda and then what is the other team willing to deal?

Here is also another twist to consider. The O's have a need for a CF and the Dodgers a 3rd basemen. The O's would love to rid themselves of Tejada's contract and likewise the Dodgers wanna get rid of Pierre. If the other team would be willing to take on the other contract it could be that part of it that seals the deal. It would be nice if we could do that with Jr and take on Tejada but jr ain't gonna go to Baltimore and you can bet the farm on that. Gonzo maybe but the contract's are not that comparable and Gonzo's defense is far better at this point which is the main neccessity for a SS. Perhaps though we could dump a few smaller contracts like Castro/Freel/Stanton and all 3 of those guys could be assets to a young and re-building O's team and wouldn't be the long term burden like Pierre. We could then deal Tejada to the Angels for some propects in return for salary relief.

In other words we could do this:

Bailey/Hamilton/Votto (Most likely scenario IMO, although I would hate to trade Hammy)

For Bedard

or

Bailey/Hamilton/Votto/Castro/Stanton/Freel

For Bedard and Tejada

(See we don't give up anymore talent because we are taking on significant salary 32 Million over the next 2 years compared to Freel/Stanton/Castro which will earn somewhere around 10 mill, at most over the next 2 yrs.)

Then we deal Tejada to the Angels for say Chone Figgins or Jeff Mathis and Jose Arredondo.

We then come out ahead on salary and will have gotten Bedard/Arredondo/Figgins or Mathis for Bailey/Hamilton/Votto which is an exceptional deal.

It's certainly fun trying to figure out the possibilities.

[redsrbetter]

Per Jon Fay:

This from today's Baltimore Sun:

Despite rampant rumors that (Brian) Roberts, shortstop Miguel Tejada and ace pitcher Erik Bedard are about to be traded, MacPhail said no deals were imminent as of last night.

"There's no shortage of talk, but it's just that - talk," MacPhail said. "The conversations have not ebbed since we left Nashville."

MacPhail said the club is in the process of filtering the number of suitors to decide who is the best trade fit for several Orioles. At this point, it appears the Cincinnati Reds, Los Angeles Dodgers and Seattle Mariners have emerged as the leading contenders for Bedard. The Houston Astros have been the most aggressive suitor for Tejada, and the Chicago Cubs have honed in on Roberts.

I talked to someone today who thought the Reds were third in the race, but that they could get the deal done if they offered Jay Bruce. I don't think they'll do that.

It's interesting, this trade is likely to come down to what the Reds and O's think of Reds' top two prospects. That's a very fluid thing. This time last year, my guess is the Reds would have traded Bruce but not Bailey. If Bailey wins 11 or 12 games this season, he'll go back to untouchable.

[redsrbetter]

Sounds like we may not be getting him afterall. Krivsky is sticking to his guns and ensuring Bruce stays with the club. I don't hate it, but we still need that pitching.

In the long run, I am cool with landing a #3 and watching all our potential stars grow in the organization. The free agent crop is huge next offseason, so we can spend then if we are not able to land a big time pitcher now. Also, we would have Cueto in the rotation in 2009.

Does this mean we will not contend this year? Absolutely not, but we have to trust that our young talent will rise to the occassion. And Krivsky will still need to get us a couple SPs.

[abell215]

prior just got non-tendered. let's go krivsky. a low-salary, incentive-laden contract needs to be offered. we keep our prospects and we just might get a great deal.

[Mario-Rijo]

The latest today:

The M's now look to be in the driver's seat for Kuroda. A 4th yr added in the contract, plus no state tax (an extra million per yr?) are the reason's.

So that may put the Dodger's back in the race, if they decline to match that offer. Which may have a package of Kershaw or Kemp plus Hu and Ethier or another pitcher.

Our current offer is allegedly Bailey, Hamilton, and Milton Loo and we will likely add a 4th player if it's close. The Loo thing is interesting because of his relative obscurity due to his going home last season to deal with personal matters. I mean if his name is coming up it's a strong indicator that the "inside" information we are getting is real.

Now if we read all the facts correctly the O's would prefer a package consisting of the following, listed in order of preference.

#1 - A young, inexpensive and All-Star caliber OF player or prospect close to the majors. Bruce, Kemp, Jones, Hamilton, Ethier (Probably in this order)

#2 - A young, inexpensive and All Star caliber pitcher or pitching prospect close to the majors. Kershaw, Bailey, Morrow, Cueto (Again probably in this order)

#3 - A middle infield prospect (prefer a SS) who doesn't have to be near to the majors but preferably should be and have some decent upside. Hu, Chen, Loo (Gezundheit, ). again probably in that order.

Every one of those names have come up with the exception of Chen (which is my guess)

So if Seattle pulls out of the deal after they sign Kuroda (who knows for sure?) then it comes down to what/who the Dodgers are willing to do becaue they have 2 of the top 3 players the O's want. However the Dodger's are also sticking to their guns, only one of Kemp/Kershaw will be dealt.

So unless we come off of Bruce it looks like one of these packages wins it IMHO.

Kemp, Hu and a Dodger's young starter not named Kershaw (Meloan?)

Kershaw, Hu, Ethier

Bailey, Hamilton, Loo

My gut says the package of Kershaw, Hu and Ethier get's it. Now we could add maybe Joey Votto however the Dodgers would just likely turn around and add LaRoche to the mix who are both valuable at different positions LaRoche (3B).

Kershaw, Laroche, Ethier and Hu

Vs.

Bailey, Votto, Hamilton and Loo


Tough call for Andy Macphail because Kershaw still hasn't tasted AA much with just 5 starts and although he looked good (K/BB ratio was down a bit) it was a small sample size. LaRoche, Ethier and Hu have made it to the bigs with mixed results none of them look like superstars. Whereas Loo has his own questions being so far away from the majors and he sorta retired on us last year due to his homesickness. Hamilton isn't quite right in terms of age (he will be 27 in may) and we all know about his injury/addiction history, Bailey looked good in spots last year but overall has some things he needs to work out (control). And Votto has probably less question marks right now but the O's may very well be a major bidder for Mark Texiera next year and willl probably get a hometown discount (not much but one all the same).

If the O's feel good about Kershaw being a superstar then that package probably fits the bill better for them. If they are on the fence about Kershaw then we will get Bedard IMO. Although it may help if we could find a better 4th option than Loo. Maybe Valaika (at 2B) may make a better offer.

Either way I hope Kuroda hurries it up and signs so we can get on with it.

[redsrbetter]

-Kuroda may have a lot of love for the M's as well because of Ichiro's fame.

-I wonder who the 4th player would be when added to Bailey, Hamilton, and Loo? Loo was a top prospect for us this past year (ranked 8th in our system by Baseball America) until he went home. He is still a highly regarded spect, but just an unknown.

He has flashes of 5-tool potential, good live bat and hits foraverage with power potential, and he is a plus runner, has plus hands, and great arm strength. His only weaknesses are proving he can stay healthy and his time off this last season.

In the future he could become a 3B or CF, but the Reds like him as a SS for now.

I love the break down you have made here Rijo. Really good post and likely very close to what is going on right now. It is indeed a tough choice for MacPhail, and I think the Dodgers deal is stronger. But it is real close. I also think Krivsky could chalk up even more and just might do that. But the Dodgers can probably match us like you said (Votto and LaRoche). I think the clear winner will be the one who doesn't overpay for Bedard. If the bidding gets much higher at all, then the price will be too steep.

I can see Krivsky getting desperate and changing Hamilton for Bruce and that package will not be beaten at all. But then again, the Dodgers are just as desperate because of the D-Backs getting Haren now.

This is going to be interesting...

The bottom line for me is, I am proud of Krivsky now. If he doesn't get the deal done, its because theDodgers are going to be robbed. I am fine with knowing he tried real hard and us keeping our young talent. But we still have to get some arms.

I think getting Prior for the back end of the rotation would be huge. Harang, Arroyo, Prior, Bailey, Belisle wouldn't be horrible if you think about the excessively great offense we will have if Bruce, Hamilton, and Votto are still aound to plug in between our big bats like Dunn, Phillips, and EdE.

[redsrbetter]

Welp, the Dodgers are signing Kuroda. So I believe our cahnces have become greater. The Dodger's package is likely inexistant now. Reds vs M's.

[Mario-Rijo]

Welp, the Dodgers are signing Kuroda. So I believe our cahnces have become greater. The Dodger's package is likely inexistant now. Reds vs M's.

I think it really depends on how bad the O's want that cornerstone OF. And if Hamilton and Stubbs don't fit the bill only Bruce could save us and it ain't going to happen. So Baltimore do you want the better package (Bailey, Hamilton +) or do you want that young OF beast (Jones, Morrow +)???