Bold Prediction

[redsrbetter]

Here is what will happen next:

The Reds will trade Josh Hamilton and Johnny Cueto to the Twins for Matt Garza during the Winter Meetings.

Would you guys like this deal?

Johnny Cueto is one heck of a commodity and really showed his greatness the last few years. I believe that Garza is the better pitcher right now, but Cueto has made steps toward that same elite status. In a deal like this, are we essentially trading one pitcher for another and throwing in a possible +.900 OPS outfielder?

Where I make the connection:

Obviously the Reds and Twins have had recent history in dealing with one another. The Twinkies need a center fielder in the worst way and Hamilton should be the cheapest and absolute best option out there. This is a classic find for the Twins if they do so. With Kevin Slowey and Francisco Liriano breaking into the rotation and the possibility to use Cueto by midseason, would Garza be missed that much? Especially when they get a really high ceiling outfielder to boost their offense?

I, for one, will hate this trade if it goes down. But I really think Hamilton is likely gone and will be packaged with a prospect for us to take on a SP. Garza is the type of pitcher likely targeted as well as he comes dirt cheap and has massive potential.

I usually don't throw these out there too often, but I see something similar to this being a possibility. We might as well get used to this deal proposal and hope it doesn't become anything worse.

Thoughts?

[love_that_reefer]

With all the likelihood of Santana being traded and the fact they have said they will explore trade possibilities, I cannot see the Twins trading Garza.

[catman]

This deal could happen, and that would signal the Twins being willing to pay Johan what he wants to stay. Cueto could be a better pitcher than Garza is, but Garza is more polished, for now. Hamilton would be dressing on the deal for me.
Even if Santana is dealt, this move makes sense for the Twins. They get 2 major leaguers for one and, as has been said, Garza wouldn't be missed, especially if the Twins pick up someone like Phillip Hughes from the Yankees, Mike Pelfrey from the Mets or Buchholtz from the Red Sox in the deal for Santana.
Garza would be a solid #3 starter for the Reds. He gets a lot of outs on grounders or strikeouts, so he should be able to keep the ball in the park in Cincinnati.

[redsrbetter]

As said in the opening post, this is a huge price to pay for Garza. But with Delmon Young likely being thrown out there as an option, Hamilton will not be enough. Maybe it isn't Cueto, but it would be a pretty good prospect and I don't think either Wood or Maloney would be enough. That leaves Cueto.

Again, I hate the thought of losing both Hamilton and Cueto for Garza just because he is a year ahead of Cueto, but that is likely the only way we get Garza.

So, is it smart to just say forget Garza, or would it be better to do a deal like this and concentrate on the upcoming season?

[love_that_reefer]

Twins are looking at Crisp to play center so the price might not be Garza.

[redsrbetter]

I never heard about that one. Crisp sucks and the Twins would be dumb to think he is a viable replacement for Hunter. They need sticks and that is not a part of CoCo's game whatsoever.

[browntown653]

Why do the Reds want to trade Hamilton...

[TheBigLebowski]

I would throw myself out of a 10 story building if that happened.

Now...you pair Freel wit Cueto and I lower the stories to 5.

[redsrbetter]

Ok so I doubt this happens now with (as reefer stated) the need for the Twins to trade away Santana's contract.

So we have to look elsewhere. Would Krivsky look for young pitching talent like Jair Jurrjens or JoJo Reyes from the Braves to boost the rotation for next season? Or will he want a bonafide proven #2 pitcher from somewhere?

Is Santana out of the question? Now that we know the wallet has opened, will it open again for Santana? We do have some top prospects to deal. For Santana? I would virtually deal anyone.

NOTE: Keep in mind, Hamilton and Bruce are the last guys I want to see dealt. But with the right return, I would do it.

[missionhockey21]

I would throw myself out of a 10 story building if that happened.

Now...you pair Freel wit Cueto and I lower the stories to 5.

Same here. Hamilton is going to have such a career, he came in a very raw player (basically an old 25 year old with a crap load of talent and baggage) and had a great year despite a few injuries; imagine him in a couple of seasons or even next season (I am sure everyone know's Bill James' projection on him.) I like Garza and I like pitching, but not at the cost of a guy who could make for one of the best 3-4 lineup combo in the game with Jay Bruce.

[redsrbetter]

I just realized that Santana is due to be a free agent after the 2008 season. I wouldn't touch him with any one of our prospects after seeing that fact.

What I am trying to do here is think of the possible scenarios that Krivsky is looking at. We know he is shopping Hamilton and as much as all of us would hate to lose him, we have to look at what would be acceptable if it does in fact happen.

Are the Braves a good fit? They need to replace Andruw.

[redsrbetter]

With Schafer and Anderson likely to break the MLB level in '09, Hamilton is not the answer for the Braves either. Sounds good to me. The more reasons I can find teams not having a fit for Hamilton the better.

[Mario-Rijo]

As much as I hate to admit it I can see them dealing Hammy. It will go down as one of the worst deal the Reds have ever made regardless of who they get in return IMO.

But if you really want a bold prediction check this one out. It's not likely to ever happen but if you break it down it fits for both teams better than you'd think. Although it's a bit far fetched.

The Reds Receive Matt Garza, Scott Baker and Matt Guerrier

The Twins Receive Brandon Phillips, Ryan Freel, Chris Dickerson & Cash

[redsrbetter]

I think the shoe fits in that deal although I would never trade Phillips either and I believe our FO is on the same page as us on that.

I really don't think a multi-player deal is in the works. I still don't think Krivsky has it in him to get that right.

But Garza and Baker would be huge. The problem is, even with Phillips being a part of the deal, I don't think it would be enough. And my thinking on the Twins now is that they are hard pressed in trading Santana due to his expensive contract now. So, Garza and Baker are likely a big part of their future.

So where are we at now? We are in the same boat as our own GM. If we can think of reasons why a GM won't work a certain deal with us, then it likely really wouldn't happen. Unless there are arguments for both sides, then it would be close.

We still need a SP and have a surplus in outfielders. The most touted outfielders are Hamilton and Bruce. The ones we want to go are Freel or Griffey. The latter won't land us any sort of starting pitcher that is worth our time. Unless we trade Griffey for nothing and use whatever left over money toward a SP on the free agent market. But who?

And trading either Hamilton or Bruce would make us all cringe. But not getting that SP makes us hate Krivsky. So what does he do to make this team a respectable contender?

[Mario-Rijo]

I think the shoe fits in that deal although I would never trade Phillips either and I believe our FO is on the same page as us on that.

I really don't think a multi-player deal is in the works. I still don't think Krivsky has it in him to get that right.

But Garza and Baker would be huge. The problem is, even with Phillips being a part of the deal, I don't think it would be enough. And my thinking on the Twins now is that they are hard pressed in trading Santana due to his expensive contract now. So, Garza and Baker are likely a big part of their future.

So where are we at now? We are in the same boat as our own GM. If we can think of reasons why a GM won't work a certain deal with us, then it likely really wouldn't happen. Unless there are arguments for both sides, then it would be close.

We still need a SP and have a surplus in outfielders. The most touted outfielders are Hamilton and Bruce. The ones we want to go are Freel or Griffey. The latter won't land us any sort of starting pitcher that is worth our time. Unless we trade Griffey for nothing and use whatever left over money toward a SP on the free agent market. But who?

And trading either Hamilton or Bruce would make us all cringe. But not getting that SP makes us hate Krivsky. So what does he do to make this team a respectable contender?

Well I guess it won't be Garza as he is now a Tampa Bay Ray w/ Delmon Young going the other way as the main piece in a six player deal. I think Tampa Bay got the better end of this deal IMO.

Matt Garza
Jason Bartlett
Eduardo Morlan (RH Relief Pitcher)

For

Delmon Young
Brendan Harris
Jason Pridie


BTW if you are looking for a match with our OF surplus look at the A's & O's.