Overview:
In order to have an overview you must 1st have a plan. My contention is that WK does (and aside from yesterdays events I am with him) and that it should start to bear some fruit next season. His premise is to build the foundation of the team around pitching and defense. His unstated goal IMO is to remain in the mix while the future is being groomed. He would love to win it all now but the odds of that happening are a bit unlikely. But if he keeps a strong young core together he has a real shot at building a something special. Better to have that money down the road to keep the Bruce's and Bailey's of the world then to spend it now and mortgage our bright future.
His FA signings to date have been of the modest variety and unfortunately I can see where this off-season may see more of the same (with regards to positional players). The idea as I see it is to not overspend for a player that we may or may not need and that may keep us from persuing a potential impact player down the road (offseason of '08 or '09) that would complete an already talent laden team at that juncture. Or again to extend one of our may young talents.
That's not to say that he won't jump at an opportunity to get pitching presently. If we acquire someone already making solid money or sign a FA look for it too be of the pitching variety. We could p/u a FA RH bat with some pop but my gut says those type of players can be traded for and that would likely be the focus there.
So without further delay here is the plan.
Major needs from least priority to most:
#5 - A back up LH hitting catcher who can actually call a game and throw out a runner on occassion. This is the least priority only because at least Javy has shown some flashes of doing the latter well. In 554 innings in 1999 he threw out .457% of would be basestealers (that's 21 CS out of 46) and last year his # was .444% (8 out of 18) his career % is .309 which is far better than this years # of .080 (2 out of 25). He definitely needs to figure out how to call a game with a career CERA (Catcher's ERA = Pitcher's ERA when Javy catches them) of 5.08 (this yr 4.98). This simply must improve or we need another alternative.
Unfortunately there is nothing worth looking at here at least from a LH perspective and very little from the right side. However the one guy I would suggest from the right side would be Ramon Castro a far more intriguing bat (especially in GABP, loads of power) and his career CERA is a full run lower than Javy's (although he has caught some pretty good pitching in his days). But ironically enough his CS% for this year is .080 (2 for 25) and for his career .310 almost exact duplicate #'s of Javy. The only major difference would be Javy has shown flashes of goodness (and badness) while Castro has been more consistently lower. Castro has had some off the field issues (in Florida I believe) which may make the point moot.
I'd suggest here again a trade for say Jeff Clement (Seattle AAA).
#4 - A RH bat with pop (not to be confused necc. with a RH bat with power). Bottom line is that with all the LH Bats we already have now and in the near future we need to offset that with one more RH. This may not be deemed necc. if EE starts lighting the world on fire anytime now (is doing ok right now) before the end of the season. But it would be nice to have a 25+ HR 25+ DBL guy right now. Sure I have hope for Edwin and think he'll become that but for some reason he isn't driving in runs at a pace that I thought he would by now. We also already boast Brandon Phillips who is already killing LH's but IMo one more like BP is needed.
Like I said before this is more likely to come in a trade than FA. With a guy like Carlos Quentin perhaps now available since Ari. re-signed Byrnes to go along with Upton and Young. He may not cost as much to get as some might think, and although we have a far better current LH version of Quentin in LF he is likely to be gone so time to start looking at potential bat's who will play LF. Now I am not advocating Quentin as "the answer" just someone to consider.
#3 - A #1,2 or 3 pitcher. Yeah this is of course the most unlikely scenario as I find it unlikely that we will be able to deal for one or sign 1 as their are only 2 pitchers currently that could seriously be viewed as that. Carlos Zambrano and Koji Uehara (Yomiuri Giants) who could be a #2 or #3 in MLB. Although anyone after Uehara will have to do their due diligence in his medical histroy, it seems he may have had some arm problems in the past, not quite sure what those were.
Uehara stats: (Disclaimer these stats are close but not necc. exact as they are translated as best as possible)
Koji Uehara
BTW Uehara (RH/RH) isn't on the level of a Daisuke Matsuzaka but from what I have read seems to be a better bet than Kei Igawa. Throws a low 90's fastball, and a splitfinger (not sure what else if any) and has excellent command. I don't think there will be a posting fee on him as I believe his current contract will be up after August. There are some other possible FA's from Japan but it is currently unclear who those players might be if any.
#2 - A top of the line set-up guy (8th inning) while there may be some guys in house that could fit the bill (Burton, Salmon, Bray) to this point they haven't completely proven themselves. Although Burton has looked solid of late. Who to choose from? Linebrink (HR's up, K/9 down), Jorge Julio (doing a fair job currently for Colorado) would be a cheap possiblity but I wonder if his succes has anything to do with the Humidor in Coors, Kerry Wood, not proven in the pen.
So what do you do? Sign a couple of re-treads who have had some semblance of production at one time or another or deal for a guy who is raw and yet to figure it all out and hope for the best?
I say you gotta find them in a trade as well. More on that in a minute.
#1 A Closer - This in my mind is the most important player to p/u and fortunately there are a few decent options (And no I don't think Rivera will remain a FA long, he will stay a Yankee). However my favorite option (s) is/are not a FA. Joe Nathan and Huston Street respectively, I think both are attainable but at what cost?
Speaking of cost what are the #'s for next yr? Well lucky for us I have that info semi-handy. This is a pretty close estimate of major league salary in '08.
Code:
Name Salary Bonus Amount Paid Comments
Bronson Arroyo $3,900,000 $2,500,000 $2,500,000
Juan Castro $975,000 $0 $0
Todd Coffey $925,000 $0 $0 Possible 600K In unknown performance bonuses
Adam Dunn $13,000,000 $0 $0 Option with 500K Buyout Voids if traded
Ryan Freel $3,000,000 $0 $0
Alex Gonzalez $4,625,000 $0 $0
Ken Griffey $10,174,110 $0 $0
Aaron Harang $6,750,000 $0 $0
Scott Hatteburg $1,500,000 $0 $0 Club Option
David Ross $2,250,000 $0 $0
Mike Stanton $3,000,000 $0 $0
Javier Valentin $1,250,000 $0 $0 Unknown Club Option
David Weathers $2,500,000 $0 $0
Totals: $53,849,110 $2,500,000
Of course this doesn't include a lot of the young guys. I'll do my best to figure these, but I am by no means an expert at this.
Arbitration Eligible I believe:
Belise - From 390K to (Guessing) 1.5 Mill
EE - From 407,500 K to (Guessing) 1.5 Mill
A modest bump in pay (Just counting guys that will likely be here IMO)
Bailey
Bray
Burton
Cantu (May be Arb. elig. I am not sure)
Coutlangus
Hamilton
Hopper
Lopez
Macbeth
EZ Ramirez
Salmon
(Again guessing) total of 4.5 mill
So add another 7.5 Mill+
For a total of 61 Million-ish, not including other bonuses that are unknown to me. So if you conclude that our '07 payroll of approximately 75 million now bumps up to 80 mill then you could suggest that we likely have anywhere from (conservatively) 10-15 million to play with. Again we don't know if these #'s are exact and if we are missing some major pieces to the puzzle. But if they are accurate we could afford 1 good player or spread it out over several guys. Which is more likely?
But here is the real key dealing Dunn and Griffey alone frees up another 23+ million. Which gives us somewhere between 33-38 Million Dollars and this also depends on the return for said players. Let's say between the #'s we don't know and the return (likely young players) we have 33 Million.
Let's play hypothetical
Carlos Zambrano - 20 Million
Joe Nathan - 7 Million (trade prospects, both in house and received)
Carlos Quentin - 400K
Jeff Clement - 330K
27 Mill 770K
Pretty much what your payroll was going to be.
Carlos Zambrano
Aaron Harang
Bronson Arroyo
Matt Belisle
Bobby Livingston
EZ (Long Man)
Coutlangus
Weathers
Bray
Burton
Nathan
C- Ross
1B- Votto
2B- BP
SS- Gonzo
3B- EE
LF- Quentin
CF- Hamilton
RF- Bruce
Bench:
C- Clement
1B- Hatteberg
IF- Keppinger
OF- Hopper
UT- Cantu (1B/LF)
UT- Freel
Not bad, not bad at all. And this doesn't even include Homer Bailey, Johnny Cueto and the like. Of course you can probably slot Homer in the 3rd spot bump Arroyo back up to #2 and forget Zambrano (Cubs won't let him go) but it's certainly worth dreaming about. But I think Nathan is more than attainable however they may want EE and some degree of a big package of pitching. If we can get a good enough return on Jr and Dunn we may have the chips to get it done. I would not like parting with EE but I would probably do it if it meant getting Joe Nathan.
So what do we think?