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Thread: FA's to be

  1. #16
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    Re: FA's to be

    See, I fully agree with your entire outline, Rijo. For me, you are spot on with our needs and our depth. If that represents a plan at all, it is that Krivsky has not given up on the core of this team. He believes this team is close to contention and has not fallen into the trap in thinking we are as bad as the record shows.

    Remember this guys; "we are better than we are showing." Many of us have complained about that. But maybe he was stating these words with a deeper meaning. He knows this team is made up of good parts. I can't argue that. So where does that leave us?

    Of course, he has tried to structure a bullpen and has failed time and time again. But we have to give him the benefit of the doubt that he has tried. But that is as far as it goes. You pointed out that he should have looked deeper into the arms of Majewski and Bray. Stanton is a whole other chapter in itself. Cormier? I can go on and on. But the point to be made here is that I would be even more mad if he didn't at least try.

    So, he has tried to do certain things and they have failed. That happens to all of us. And it does not discredit the good things he has done.

    So where does that leave us? We still are saying that we have a team made up of good players, right? If so, what is the problem? The management is the problem. The field manager is where we find our hang ups every year. I have said this from the beginning, you have to go find someone that will turn this team upside down. No more finding Mr. nice guy and finding out what he can do. Go get someone whom you know what he will do and let him do that with the same success he has always had.

    I only bring this up because I think this is the most pressing issue this year. What time is better than now for interviewing possible candidates? This just gives us fans more room to complain and feel like the FO doesn't care.

    Krivsky may be very hard at work and is just not seeing results from his work. If that is so, I feel bad for him for sure. But you have to make a judgement call on him if he doesn't feel like this team needs a new manager. Once he takes the interim tag off of Mackanin, I will die. Then when he decides not to get any free agents after trading Dunn and freeing up money, I will die.

    I hate making sour predictions like that, but I still have no reason to believe this front office is any better than the last one when it comes to getting big things done. Krivsky can do the small things and see how they work out, but lacks the fundamental advantage to get the big things done.

  2. #17
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    Re: FA's to be

    Harang is proboably the most underrated pitcher in baseball. I think you should have traded griffey while he was hot
    http://www.getafreeappleiphone.com/i...ers/1167_4.gifpaid for my Jose Reyes jersey Yes it works you can try it too.Free money for quick easy surveys.For Pictures of my checks and tips check out my blog http://paid4mycamera.blogspot.com/

  3. #18
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    Re: FA's to be

    Quote Originally Posted by NFLman2033 View Post
    i will agree with the Hatteberg statement, except for the fact that we already have a LH 1st baseman in Votto, so he is redundant to keep.

    but Weathers.. oh hell no I don't want him back.. he is having a nice season this year, but i really don't expect him to keep it up much longer
    Yeah it's semi-redundant to keep Hatteberg assuming Votto lives up to the hype. If he fails miserably then you have a problem with no suitable replacement on hand if he (Hatteberg) has already been dealt.

    Weathers, yeah...I can see where you are coming from, sell high and get out from what could end up being a meltdown of major proportions. But we don't have much in that pen and until we get a couple of dependable arms I'd ride out the storm with Stormy.

    When and how the Reds add to their five World Championships, nine pennants and nine division titles seems less important than the franchises' lineage, which traces a line back to the dawn of the professional game and their role as keeper of the historic flame they lit by birthing the Red Stockings in 1869.

  4. #19
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    Re: FA's to be

    1st let me say before I get on to the pitching that my Eric Byrnes idea is shot now as he reportedly re-signed with Arizona for 3 yrs 30 mill. Time to look at plans B and C.

    Anyhow back to the pitching and then I'll do a bit of an overview/big picture look for the plan as it were.


    Rotation
    Ace- Aaron Harang - Not much to say here, except that it behooves MacNarron to quit letting Harang overdo it (110-115 pitches per game max) when we no longer have a shot at anything except the #1 pick in the '08 draft. In reality he's an elite #2 pitcher and a really good #1. If you line him up with all the #1's in baseball you would probably slot him somewhere between the end of the top 1/3 and the late middle (In other words 12-18ish), In terms of talent. In terms of results he gets about as much out of his talent as any pitcher in baseball.

    #2- Bronson Arroyo - If you take a real good look at his stats both for this yr and his career it will show you 2 major negatives. Doesn't have much success traditionally speaking around the month of June give or take a week or 2. And that if you have him throw 120+ pitches in a game you might regret it not only his next start but for some time. Those 2 things aside he does a pretty solid job he's a sub 4.00 era pitcher in a hitters park who logs 200+ IP a yr which you can't ask for much more than that. However if your goal is to win a championship as it always should be then Bronson would make an outstanding #3 pitcher.

    #3- Homer Bailey - We could talk about this kid for hours and debate a lot. The fact is he is the closest thing to a #3 we have right now (assuming Bronson stays @2). He will hopefully become the future ace of the staff, but for next season he is #3. Assuming another pitcher isn't acquired.

    #4- Matt Belisle - He could be the #3 and may be out of default if Homer cannot iron it out. But in a good rotation and w/ a good catcher behind the plate calling the game he is a solid #4 and a stud #5.

    #5- We have a host of guys who could conceivably be a decent #5 option. My choices in order right now are Livingston, Johnny Cueto, Elizardo Ramirez and perhaps Matt Maloney.

    I didn't do the bullpen but we all know what's there and what's needed. At least 1 quality back of the pen arm (A closer, one who misses bats) and preferably another at minimum.

    When and how the Reds add to their five World Championships, nine pennants and nine division titles seems less important than the franchises' lineage, which traces a line back to the dawn of the professional game and their role as keeper of the historic flame they lit by birthing the Red Stockings in 1869.

  5. #20
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    Re: FA's to be

    Quote Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo View Post
    Yeah it's semi-redundant to keep Hatteberg assuming Votto lives up to the hype. If he fails miserably then you have a problem with no suitable replacement on hand if he (Hatteberg) has already been dealt.

    Weathers, yeah...I can see where you are coming from, sell high and get out from what could end up being a meltdown of major proportions. But we don't have much in that pen and until we get a couple of dependable arms I'd ride out the storm with Stormy.
    well if Votto is a bust.. its still 1B, its not like half the guys in the league can't play that position.

    #2, if you trade, Conine, Weathers, and Hatteberg, you should be able to find some Middle Relief Pitching that is comparable to the production that we got from Weathers.. hopefully.

    either way.. i do like what you are doing here

  6. #21
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    Re: FA's to be

    Overview:

    In order to have an overview you must 1st have a plan. My contention is that WK does (and aside from yesterdays events I am with him) and that it should start to bear some fruit next season. His premise is to build the foundation of the team around pitching and defense. His unstated goal IMO is to remain in the mix while the future is being groomed. He would love to win it all now but the odds of that happening are a bit unlikely. But if he keeps a strong young core together he has a real shot at building a something special. Better to have that money down the road to keep the Bruce's and Bailey's of the world then to spend it now and mortgage our bright future.

    His FA signings to date have been of the modest variety and unfortunately I can see where this off-season may see more of the same (with regards to positional players). The idea as I see it is to not overspend for a player that we may or may not need and that may keep us from persuing a potential impact player down the road (offseason of '08 or '09) that would complete an already talent laden team at that juncture. Or again to extend one of our may young talents.

    That's not to say that he won't jump at an opportunity to get pitching presently. If we acquire someone already making solid money or sign a FA look for it too be of the pitching variety. We could p/u a FA RH bat with some pop but my gut says those type of players can be traded for and that would likely be the focus there.

    So without further delay here is the plan.

    Major needs from least priority to most:
    #5 - A back up LH hitting catcher who can actually call a game and throw out a runner on occassion. This is the least priority only because at least Javy has shown some flashes of doing the latter well. In 554 innings in 1999 he threw out .457% of would be basestealers (that's 21 CS out of 46) and last year his # was .444% (8 out of 18) his career % is .309 which is far better than this years # of .080 (2 out of 25). He definitely needs to figure out how to call a game with a career CERA (Catcher's ERA = Pitcher's ERA when Javy catches them) of 5.08 (this yr 4.98). This simply must improve or we need another alternative.

    Unfortunately there is nothing worth looking at here at least from a LH perspective and very little from the right side. However the one guy I would suggest from the right side would be Ramon Castro a far more intriguing bat (especially in GABP, loads of power) and his career CERA is a full run lower than Javy's (although he has caught some pretty good pitching in his days). But ironically enough his CS% for this year is .080 (2 for 25) and for his career .310 almost exact duplicate #'s of Javy. The only major difference would be Javy has shown flashes of goodness (and badness) while Castro has been more consistently lower. Castro has had some off the field issues (in Florida I believe) which may make the point moot.

    I'd suggest here again a trade for say Jeff Clement (Seattle AAA).

    #4 - A RH bat with pop (not to be confused necc. with a RH bat with power). Bottom line is that with all the LH Bats we already have now and in the near future we need to offset that with one more RH. This may not be deemed necc. if EE starts lighting the world on fire anytime now (is doing ok right now) before the end of the season. But it would be nice to have a 25+ HR 25+ DBL guy right now. Sure I have hope for Edwin and think he'll become that but for some reason he isn't driving in runs at a pace that I thought he would by now. We also already boast Brandon Phillips who is already killing LH's but IMo one more like BP is needed.

    Like I said before this is more likely to come in a trade than FA. With a guy like Carlos Quentin perhaps now available since Ari. re-signed Byrnes to go along with Upton and Young. He may not cost as much to get as some might think, and although we have a far better current LH version of Quentin in LF he is likely to be gone so time to start looking at potential bat's who will play LF. Now I am not advocating Quentin as "the answer" just someone to consider.

    #3 - A #1,2 or 3 pitcher. Yeah this is of course the most unlikely scenario as I find it unlikely that we will be able to deal for one or sign 1 as their are only 2 pitchers currently that could seriously be viewed as that. Carlos Zambrano and Koji Uehara (Yomiuri Giants) who could be a #2 or #3 in MLB. Although anyone after Uehara will have to do their due diligence in his medical histroy, it seems he may have had some arm problems in the past, not quite sure what those were.

    Uehara stats: (Disclaimer these stats are close but not necc. exact as they are translated as best as possible)

    Koji Uehara

    BTW Uehara (RH/RH) isn't on the level of a Daisuke Matsuzaka but from what I have read seems to be a better bet than Kei Igawa. Throws a low 90's fastball, and a splitfinger (not sure what else if any) and has excellent command. I don't think there will be a posting fee on him as I believe his current contract will be up after August. There are some other possible FA's from Japan but it is currently unclear who those players might be if any.

    #2 - A top of the line set-up guy (8th inning) while there may be some guys in house that could fit the bill (Burton, Salmon, Bray) to this point they haven't completely proven themselves. Although Burton has looked solid of late. Who to choose from? Linebrink (HR's up, K/9 down), Jorge Julio (doing a fair job currently for Colorado) would be a cheap possiblity but I wonder if his succes has anything to do with the Humidor in Coors, Kerry Wood, not proven in the pen.

    So what do you do? Sign a couple of re-treads who have had some semblance of production at one time or another or deal for a guy who is raw and yet to figure it all out and hope for the best?

    I say you gotta find them in a trade as well. More on that in a minute.

    #1 A Closer - This in my mind is the most important player to p/u and fortunately there are a few decent options (And no I don't think Rivera will remain a FA long, he will stay a Yankee). However my favorite option (s) is/are not a FA. Joe Nathan and Huston Street respectively, I think both are attainable but at what cost?

    Speaking of cost what are the #'s for next yr? Well lucky for us I have that info semi-handy. This is a pretty close estimate of major league salary in '08.

    Code:
    Name           Salary      Bonus Amount Paid       Comments 
    Bronson Arroyo  $3,900,000 $2,500,000   $2,500,000    
    Juan Castro       $975,000 $0 $0    
    Todd Coffey       $925,000 $0 $0                   Possible 600K In unknown performance bonuses  
    Adam Dunn      $13,000,000 $0 $0                   Option with 500K Buyout Voids if traded  
    Ryan Freel      $3,000,000 $0 $0    
    Alex Gonzalez   $4,625,000 $0 $0    
    Ken Griffey    $10,174,110 $0 $0    
    Aaron Harang    $6,750,000 $0 $0    
    Scott Hatteburg $1,500,000 $0 $0                   Club Option  
    David Ross      $2,250,000 $0 $0    
    Mike Stanton    $3,000,000 $0 $0    
    Javier Valentin $1,250,000 $0 $0                   Unknown Club Option  
    David Weathers  $2,500,000 $0 $0    
    Totals:        $53,849,110 $2,500,000
    Of course this doesn't include a lot of the young guys. I'll do my best to figure these, but I am by no means an expert at this.

    Arbitration Eligible I believe:
    Belise - From 390K to (Guessing) 1.5 Mill
    EE - From 407,500 K to (Guessing) 1.5 Mill

    A modest bump in pay (Just counting guys that will likely be here IMO)
    Bailey
    Bray
    Burton
    Cantu (May be Arb. elig. I am not sure)
    Coutlangus
    Hamilton
    Hopper
    Lopez
    Macbeth
    EZ Ramirez
    Salmon
    (Again guessing) total of 4.5 mill

    So add another 7.5 Mill+

    For a total of 61 Million-ish, not including other bonuses that are unknown to me. So if you conclude that our '07 payroll of approximately 75 million now bumps up to 80 mill then you could suggest that we likely have anywhere from (conservatively) 10-15 million to play with. Again we don't know if these #'s are exact and if we are missing some major pieces to the puzzle. But if they are accurate we could afford 1 good player or spread it out over several guys. Which is more likely?

    But here is the real key dealing Dunn and Griffey alone frees up another 23+ million. Which gives us somewhere between 33-38 Million Dollars and this also depends on the return for said players. Let's say between the #'s we don't know and the return (likely young players) we have 33 Million.

    Let's play hypothetical
    Carlos Zambrano - 20 Million
    Joe Nathan - 7 Million (trade prospects, both in house and received)
    Carlos Quentin - 400K
    Jeff Clement - 330K

    27 Mill 770K


    Pretty much what your payroll was going to be.

    Carlos Zambrano
    Aaron Harang
    Bronson Arroyo
    Matt Belisle
    Bobby Livingston

    EZ (Long Man)
    Coutlangus
    Weathers
    Bray
    Burton
    Nathan

    C- Ross
    1B- Votto
    2B- BP
    SS- Gonzo
    3B- EE
    LF- Quentin
    CF- Hamilton
    RF- Bruce

    Bench:
    C- Clement
    1B- Hatteberg
    IF- Keppinger
    OF- Hopper
    UT- Cantu (1B/LF)
    UT- Freel

    Not bad, not bad at all. And this doesn't even include Homer Bailey, Johnny Cueto and the like. Of course you can probably slot Homer in the 3rd spot bump Arroyo back up to #2 and forget Zambrano (Cubs won't let him go) but it's certainly worth dreaming about. But I think Nathan is more than attainable however they may want EE and some degree of a big package of pitching. If we can get a good enough return on Jr and Dunn we may have the chips to get it done. I would not like parting with EE but I would probably do it if it meant getting Joe Nathan.

    So what do we think?

    When and how the Reds add to their five World Championships, nine pennants and nine division titles seems less important than the franchises' lineage, which traces a line back to the dawn of the professional game and their role as keeper of the historic flame they lit by birthing the Red Stockings in 1869.

  7. #22
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    Re: FA's to be

    Essentially, you don't pick up Dunn's option and you trade Griffey for Clement and you get this. I see the M's taking another stab at Griffey if he finishes the season off strong. Clement may be available but I think he is a big part of the M's future. I would think it could have been a possibility before the deadline, but not in the offseason.

    Anyhow, other than a Griffey fit, how would we get a good backup/future stud catcher? Do we have to wait for Mesoraco and sign a stop-gap to a three year contract in hopes he will be ready (assuming he doesn't bust) by then? LoDuca? He would likely cost 9-10 million in free agency as he is making 6.5 now and free agents get crazy money as we all know.

    I really don't think Zambrano would come to the Reds even if offered more money than anyone else. He doesn't seem like the type to want to go to a team that looks so awful. And Krivsky doesn't strike me as the type to make it happen. We wouldn't need an opened wallet for this if Dunn and Griffey were traded as suggested, so BCast wouldn't matter much here.

    But Nathan just may do it. Krivsky might have ties with him as well. Certainly they are familiar with eachother. Could be our best chance to get a closer. Maybe even our only chance. All the more reason to not pick up Dunn's option? Nathan stands to make about $10 million at least. He makes 5.25 mill right now and should be looking for the payday. So seeing a departure in Dunn would free up the necessary money to get Nathan.

    Trading Griffey and letting Dunn go does do a lot for potential moves. But do we have the GM to get it done when given the resources to do so?

    Review:

    1.) My first choice would be to let Dunn go and not pick up his option.
    2.) Then I would throw Dunn's money at Nathan
    3.) Next I try to trade Griffey to the Mariners for Clement. (Very unlikely, but worth the shot)
    4.) Next, I fall onto plan B if Clement doesn't happen. I try to trade Griffey for a decent pitching spect or good set-up reliever.
    5.)Use the Griffey money for a stop-gap catcher like Lo Duca.

    I really don't see RCast shelling out any money this offseason, so getting a starting pitcher is almost 100% out of the question in my opinion.

    Our 2008 roster:

    C Lo Duca/Ross
    1B Votto/Hatteberg
    2B Phillips/Keppinger
    3B EdE/Cantu
    SS Gonzo
    LF Freel/Hopper
    CF Hamilton
    RF Bruce

    SP Harang
    SP Arroyo
    SP Belisle
    SP Bailey
    SP Livingston or Dumatrait

    RP Weathers
    RP Burton or Salmon
    RP Coutlangus
    RP Majewski
    RP Bray
    SU Griffey trade
    CL Nathan

    We would need comeback seasons from the following:
    EdE
    Cantu
    Freel
    Arroyo
    Majewski

    We would need strong seasons from the following young up and comers:
    Votto
    Hamilton
    Bruce
    Belisle
    Bailey
    Livingston or Dumatrait
    Lizard
    Burton or Salmon
    Coutlangus
    Bray

    We should be able to depend on the following:
    Lo Duca
    Hatteberg
    Phillips
    Harang
    Nathan

    Not a horrible team at first glance until you realize what you've got. A bunch of young guys that cannot be depended on and a bunch of other guys who have disapointed in the past. Then your select few whom you can depend on most of the time.

    I hate to be the pessimist, so I will say that it is definitely a good looking young team that will have to go through another losing season before the young guys start to learn how to catch up to their talent at the MLB level and the guys who have disapointed have shown whether they are worth keeping around or not.

    All the while, you just forked out mega cash for Lo Duca and Nathan without the expectation to contend. Maybe Krivsky has this thought out already and goes another direction and uses freed up Dunn/Griffey money to lock up Phillips and then buy some more Cormier/Stanton types and hope for the best again.

  8. #23
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    Re: FA's to be

    Ahh, that's sorta the jist of it. I just see it going down a tad differently before it's all said and done.

    The priority approach:

    #1 - Before anything of signifigance else happens Griffey would have to have been dealt. If this domino falls in place whether it be before September 1 or in the offseason, it's job numero uno.

    Why this makes sense other than the monetary part of it. If Griffey is dealt then essentially you are telling the whole team (and the fanbase for that matter) that a new direction is now here. This will please more than what most would expect IMO, but it will also piss a few others off. Those "others" would most likely only be one guy Adam Dunn. That would then mean that everyone who was here when he came up is gone. It's sorta like being the lone returning 5th yr senior and everyone else already graduated or went pro.

    Trade him, cash and Dumatrait to Seattle for Jeff Clement (LH hitting catcher) and Wladimir Balentein (RH hitting OF). Seattle will likely jump at that deal. Reportedly the M's were willing to deal Clement for Al Reyes (Tampa Bay's closer) to set-up reportedly TB backed out. Don't ya think the M's would jump at a chance for a young LH starter who actually has some velocity? And the Seattle legend is returning for a kid whom Seattle really likes but isn't in love with in Balentein.

    #2 - You p/u the Dunn option and then ask him to re-consider the trade protection if a deal can be found. Heck even if he drops it to just limited teams it gives you a shot. Seeing as how he will likely be ready to go since Jr is no longer around, then he very well would allow it and this is not against union rules. It essentially gives Dunn the ability to sign a LTC somewhere that is willing to pay him and it doesn't take away any $$$ in the process. So how could the union defend such a move if it was disallowed. IF he doesn't oh well you have Dunn in LF until at least mid June.

    He could easily go to Washington for a package of Dunn + Dickerson (Bowden loves them 5 tool CF types) for Chad Cordero, Collin Ballester and Chris Marrero or something along those lines. Ballester is a fine young RHP, Chris Marrero is a stud young RH hitting OF and Cordero is either solid trade bait or perhaps he could be a set-up guy for us.

    I have some doubts about Cordero setting up or closing in GABP but he does have value and he has this one last year before FA, both a good time to deal for him from Washington's perspective and still having a yr gives him some value. Worst case scenario he is your closer for the '08 season and you see for yourself whether or not he can keep the ball in the park. He has done a better job this season away from home (2 hr's away and 4 at home) keeping the ball in the park.

    #3 - Now you have freed up about 18 million of these deals goes down. Cordero will get a nice raise in arbitration up from his current salary of 4.15 mill, so keep that in mind. The trade for Nathan might be the most difficult thing to pull off and yes you would likely wanna extend his deal or at least get the idea for contract paremeters before the deal. It may look something like this, EE, Carlos Fisher and Salmon. I don't know if that would get it done and that's probably a tad lower than what Minny would initially ask for but would you give up those guys for him? I would but I would 1st try to offer up someone other than EE, but I'm sure he could be the key to the deal.

    I disagree with your thought on Zambrano, I think he definitely goes to the highest bidder. Would that be us, unlikely but if you are gonna go after him you must be willing to bid higher perhaps than you may want to. You also have to sell him on the fact that hey, with him we will have one of the strongest starting staffs in the NL and one who could rival alot of AL teams as well. And that also the youth we have in Votto, BP, EE, Hamilton, Bruce and prospects are not just run of the mill prospects but pretty special both offensively and defensively. And if you are able to add Joe Nathan and/or Cordero you can say that the BP has taken a great step forward and also has some solid kids and the best part about all this talent is that it's all cheap for the next several seasons which will give us the latitude to add a piece here and there if need be.

    Of course you may very well be right and he says no still. Fine then you still have 2 Legit guys Harang and Arroyo and Bailey, Ballester and Cueto on the way and soon as all 3 are currently in AAA.

    Arroyo struggles as I have documented before come from his typical swoon in june and some mishandling of him (too many pitches per outing). So he IMO is still a guy easily capable of a 3.50 ERA which is good for a solid #2 or a stud #3. Majewski and Freel may not even be necc. for next yrs. team and could find themselves on the outside looking in at the 25 man roster next spring. LoDuca is a luxury IMO, like I said before Ross can do the job defensively and if he were to make the change that I stated before he would improve his ability to make contact enough that he would no longer be an offensively liability at times.

    EE would then be gone if the Nathan deal went down. So if that were to happen you may have Keppinger or Cantu playing some 3rd and the other could platoon if necc. with Votto. Or they could both play it depending on their ability to stay solid defensively.

    How we looking?

    Rotation
    Zambrano
    Harang
    Arroyo
    Belisle
    Bailey/Ballester/Livingston/Maloney/Cueto

    Note: No Zambrano? Just Move up that rotation!

    Bullpen
    Livingston - Long Man
    Burton
    Bray
    Weathers -7th inning
    Cordero - 8th inning
    Nathan - Closer

    FWIW I have heard Cordero say that he would set-up if asked or whatever was asked of him.

    Starters
    C- Ross
    1B- Votto
    2B- Phillips
    3B- Cantu
    SS- Gonzales
    LF- Balentein
    CF- Hamilton
    RF- Bruce

    Bench
    C- Clement (Platoon Role)
    1B- Hatteberg
    IF- Keppinger
    OF- Hopper
    OF- Eric Hinske (RH Pop off the Bench and occassional starter in LF)
    UT- Freel

    Now better pitching, better defense (w/ the possible exception of 3rd which is ok in the short term), better bullpen, better bench with a rawer but not necc. worse offense. All at an overall cheaper price now and in the foreseeable future.

    When and how the Reds add to their five World Championships, nine pennants and nine division titles seems less important than the franchises' lineage, which traces a line back to the dawn of the professional game and their role as keeper of the historic flame they lit by birthing the Red Stockings in 1869.

  9. #24
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    Re: FA's to be

    Oooh, I made a mistake earlier, I thought Nathan was a free agent. Misread something somewhere. Now I definitely believe it would be just too hard to get him.

    Your proposals, while not bad, seem like something too far fetched for Krivsky to pull off. I think we would be luck just to get Cordero and a middling spect in a deal for Dunn.

    I just don't see us getting one over on Krivsky's mentor (Terry Ryan GM of the Twins). I really think Nathan is a no go for sure. They will have Liriano back next year to go along with that great young rotation. They will be a force to be reckoned with. No way they trade their closer. Just my opinion.

    My next question is if there really are no pitchers worth going after other than Zambrano, why would we want to free up money and rid ourselves of Dunn's contract? If we don't get Zambrano, we shouldn't get rid of Dunn. There just aren't any other pitchers that are worth it. Unless, of course, a trade comes along for a good closer and Cordero is just not it for me.

    My dream right now is to trade Griffey for Clement. It would probably have to be straight up. I don't think Seattle would want Dumatrait so much and not at the cost of Balentein. If we are trading a big money contract, we should be looking at not getting as good a player in return. So Seattle may still balk at a Griffey for Clement deal. But I think it could be possible.

    If Griffey is traded, we would have to upgrade RF for a while until Bruce is ready. I am not ready to see either of Freel or Hopper starting on a regular basis when we could replace them with a stronger bat. RHB preferably. In that case, I go with Jose Guillen. he is familiar with Cincy, and he can still hit. A nice stop-gap type of player while waiting for Bruce.

    So with that, Krivsky would only have to make one trade and one free agent signing. Which I believe may even still be too much for him these days. The bad thing is, this is what our team would look like.

    L Hamilton CF
    R Phillips 2B
    L Dunn LF
    R Guillen RF
    L Hatteberg/Votto 1B
    R Encarnacion 3B
    R Gonzo SS
    R Ross/Clement C

    Bench:

    Votto 1B
    Clement C
    Cantu/Keppinger IF
    Hopper OF
    Freel UTIL

    1 Harang
    2 Arroyo
    3 Belisle
    4 Bailey
    5 Livingston/Lizard/Cueto/Dumatrait

    LRP Livingston/Lizard/Cueto/Dumatrait
    MRP Coffey
    MRP Bray
    MRP Majewski
    MRP Coutlangus
    MRP Burton/Salmon/McBeth
    CL Weathers

    UGH! Our pitching would be horrible. Bailey would have to carry this team on his shoulders while Harang better hope he can keep it up and we all have to watch Belisle implode. God I hope Arroyo can turn it around.

    I seriously would be surprised if Krivsky did this much. I hate being so pessimistic, but just look at the facts. These would be too big of moves for him to pull off. We are probably looking at 6 different Cormiers and Stantons coming in for next season and most of them will only make RCast realize he has a bad GM. Which will be too little too late by then if it isn't already.

    Your propsed team Rijo looks good if we could count on the young guys to carry the team. But they are going to have bumps in the road and we are going to see them make plenty mistakes before they learn to play at the MLB level. That team looks like a real good one if guys like Votto, Bruce, Bailey, Cueto, and Hamilton had a few years under their belts. But it is just not the case.

    Ok, I am done rambling. Its bed time.

  10. #25
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    Re: FA's to be

    Quote Originally Posted by redsrbetter View Post
    Oooh, I made a mistake earlier, I thought Nathan was a free agent. Misread something somewhere. Now I definitely believe it would be just too hard to get him.

    Your proposals, while not bad, seem like something too far fetched for Krivsky to pull off. I think we would be luck just to get Cordero and a middling spect in a deal for Dunn.

    I just don't see us getting one over on Krivsky's mentor (Terry Ryan GM of the Twins). I really think Nathan is a no go for sure. They will have Liriano back next year to go along with that great young rotation. They will be a force to be reckoned with. No way they trade their closer. Just my opinion.
    Actually Nathan has been rumored to be available, I'm not saying he is however it wouldn't be unlike Minnesota to move a known commodity who is approaching unaffordability for solid cheap alternatives. The idea alledgedly is to promote Pat Neshek to closer. Sending them a piece like EE who to them is a major piece of the puzzle, a good replacement BP arm like Salmon and Fisher who is a solid starting prospect for 1 guy? I seriously don't know if Wayne even should do that deal, but we need Nathan or someone like him so desperately which makes it trivial IMO. As a matter of fact as I sit here and think about it your right, Wayne probably wouldn't pull it off.....it's too much.


    Quote Originally Posted by redsrbetter View Post
    My next question is if there really are no pitchers worth going after other than Zambrano, why would we want to free up money and rid ourselves of Dunn's contract? If we don't get Zambrano, we shouldn't get rid of Dunn. There just aren't any other pitchers that are worth it. Unless, of course, a trade comes along for a good closer and Cordero is just not it for me.
    Why get rid of Dunn if you can't pursue Zambrano? Well unless you are gonna commit to him long term he is gone at some point. Why sit on your hands and let him walk for draft picks who may or may never pan out? Get guys for him that have a far better shot.

    The deal I proposed isn't too far from reality IMO, the deal that was reportedly proposed around the deadline was Cordero, Church and minor leaguers for Dunn. Bowden pulled out of the deal because he didn't like parting with the minor leaguers reported. Fine, give me who I want and keep Church and I'll toss in a 5 tool OF who is major league ready in Dickerson who has a better skill set for RFK than Nook Logan. There was the claim that Bowden was stringing Krivsky along, while possible that's just a theory and has no factual backing. My thought is if you wanna eventually land Dunn why waste he and his agents time putting together contract parameters.

    Bottom line deal from a strength to strengthen a weakness. How else are you gonna improve if you keep Dunn and pay him when you have guys in the pipe line who can do the job. I'm not opposed to keeping Dunn, don't get me wrong. What I am opposed to is saying we are gonna improve anytime soon if we don't do something of significance. I am also working off the assumption that Castellini isn't going to move the payroll far enough north to pursue Zambrano w/o dealing Dunn and Griffey. If he is then by all means keep Dunn, I have no problem with it.

    Quote Originally Posted by redsrbetter View Post
    My dream right now is to trade Griffey for Clement. It would probably have to be straight up. I don't think Seattle would want Dumatrait so much and not at the cost of Balentein. If we are trading a big money contract, we should be looking at not getting as good a player in return. So Seattle may still balk at a Griffey for Clement deal. But I think it could be possible.
    That's a good point, however we must not forget Al Reyes for Clement, Seattle was willing to do. What does that say about his availibility? Doesn't sound to me like Seattle consider's Clement to much a part of their future plans if they can get a good enough return. They do have Kenji Jojhama and 2other solid catcher prospects. He is expendable and for Griffey that's not too big a price to pay in fact I wouldn't be surprised if we got Clement and another player.

    Quote Originally Posted by redsrbetter View Post
    If Griffey is traded, we would have to upgrade RF for a while until Bruce is ready. I am not ready to see either of Freel or Hopper starting on a regular basis when we could replace them with a stronger bat. RHB preferably. In that case, I go with Jose Guillen. he is familiar with Cincy, and he can still hit. A nice stop-gap type of player while waiting for Bruce.
    I disagree and here's why. Justin Upton, Shelley Duncan, Ryan Braun etc. they have all come up this year and Jay Bruce is reportedly far better than Duncan and every bit the equal to Upton and Braun. Why is it that he would be the one that's not ready. No he's as ready as he will ever be, I wasn't sure about Homer and I'm not sure about Votto but Bruce is ready IMO or at least will be by then assuming he gets to come up in September which I fully expect he will.

    Quote Originally Posted by redsrbetter View Post
    God I hope Arroyo can turn it around.
    We will have to agree to disagree on this point, I have made my thoughts known about Bronson. I don't know what more we can expect out of him given the circumstances involved.

    Quote Originally Posted by redsrbetter View Post
    I seriously would be surprised if Krivsky did this much. I hate being so pessimistic, but just look at the facts. These would be too big of moves for him to pull off. We are probably looking at 6 different Cormiers and Stantons coming in for next season and most of them will only make RCast realize he has a bad GM. Which will be too little too late by then if it isn't already.
    Again we will have to agree to disagree here, I still have faith in Krivsky. Although I will admit I have started to see a few minor chinks in the armor in some aspects, I have yet to disagree with the majority of his trades. Perhaps dealing away Brendan Harris and Cody Ross for little was questionable but Cody Ross has started to show why and I have confidence that at some point Harris will as well. Either way I still believe he can get that part of it done.

    Quote Originally Posted by redsrbetter View Post
    Your propsed team Rijo looks good if we could count on the young guys to carry the team. But they are going to have bumps in the road and we are going to see them make plenty mistakes before they learn to play at the MLB level. That team looks like a real good one if guys like Votto, Bruce, Bailey, Cueto, and Hamilton had a few years under their belts. But it is just not the case.

    Ok, I am done rambling. Its bed time.
    The way I see it the improved pitching and defense, bullpen and bench will offset the loss of the lost overall offense. So IMO next year we will be no worse off than what we currently should be, which is around a .500 team. But with a really bright '09 and '10 and at a whole lot lesser payroll, and probably with a more young and exciting team the gates will starting getting more work.

    That's my theory, I would take my shot with the youth and some key leaders. The important issue might be who leads them on the bench.

    When and how the Reds add to their five World Championships, nine pennants and nine division titles seems less important than the franchises' lineage, which traces a line back to the dawn of the professional game and their role as keeper of the historic flame they lit by birthing the Red Stockings in 1869.

  11. #26
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    Re: FA's to be

    All excellent points man. There is no absolute way to argue either of our points unless we knew exactly where Krivsky's head is at. I guess I don't have a problem with going young and seeing what these guys can do. But if Krivsky were thinking that way, then Bruce, Votto, and Bailey would all be up with the big club right now. Unless he is stupid. I have argued that he is in some points, I think this is one of them. But again, I am not sure what he is thinking. Here are the possibilities:

    A) He is still trying to win this year. Dumbest thinking of a baseball executive this season if this were true. I will give him enough credit account for a brain in his head which would disprove this kind of brainless thinking. Despite the PR garbage they throw out there, he and RCast both know the season is over.

    B) He may seriously think he is stunting the growth process with his big prospects if he were to call them up early. But to use your example, Rijo; Braun, Upton, Duncan, Lincecum, Miller, Chamberlain, Hughes, Young and Pedroia have all come out with a bang. Likely only Upton was favored on the top prospects list over Bruce and not many on that list were favored over Votto either. And other than Hughes, all the sucessful pitchers on the list were not as highly touted as Bailey this year. Maybe we have overrated prospects (which the numbers absolutely deny this thinking). or Krivsky is just being too patient.

    C) If option A is too far fetched, then we have to conclude that option B is the answer or else option C is the only alternative. So what is option C? Option C means Krivsky is absolutely too ignorant to be a general manager as he doesn't see a valid reason in getting young talent the opportunity to make their mistakes now and for the rest of this season. Why wait until next season for Bruce to start sucking it up for us early. Let him take his lumps now. Same goes for Votto and Bailey. Call up those guys even before the September callups. I would be willing to bet that 3 weeks from now we are all going to be calling for Krivsky's head because Bruce will not be given the opportunity to come up.

    The team today should look like this:

    C Ross
    1B Votto (DFA Conine, now we will get nothing for him, thanks Krivsky)
    2B Phillips
    3B Encarnacion (He needs to play almost everyday for the rest of the season)
    SS Gonzalez
    LF Dunn
    CF Hamilton
    RF Bruce (Griffey should have been traded, but I can understand it being hard to find a suitor)

    Rotation:
    Harang
    Arroyo
    Belisle
    Bailey
    Livingston (Possibly Cueto by September)

    Pen:
    Weathers
    Burton
    Coutlangus
    McBeth
    Salmon
    Majewski
    Bray

    Bench:
    Griffey
    Hatteberg
    Valentin
    Hopper
    Cantu

    Now, it looks real dumb to put Griffey on the bench. And it makes it harder to showcase his ability to finish the season strong. It also makes it hard to sell the fans on his getting to the 600 plateau. He doesn't deserve to be on the bench either. So, for those reasons, he will not be. But, if you are a smart GM and a smart field manager, you get the future ready for the future. You play Bruce and Votto and Hamilton extensively. You never let them sit, you don't platoon them. You play them. Let them get their sucking it up out of the way while we want to lose games. This is the only way I see fit for us to have these young guys prepared for next season.

    So what will reality tell us? Right now, Krivsky is stealing productivity from these player's hands. As we speak they should have been in the Reds lineup today. What makes us think things will be any different 1 week from now, two weeks from now, or even into September? I caution myself from expecting anything from Krivsky anymore other than the occasional surprise.

    We are going to watch Griffey come close to 600 this year and that will be great. But our team will be full of youngsters next year that have no clue how to perform to their level in the major leagues and will be expected to take the place of seasoned vets that couldn't get it done themselves.

    We are going to watch Harang bid for a Cy Young and get not a single vote for the second year in a row. And that will be it. In September, we will be lucky to see Votto or Bailey come up and the possibility is swaying toward the lesser degree of their callup. Bruce? Out of the question. Mark it down.

    Oh yeah, we are also going to see EdE and Hamilton catching a lot of pine time for reasons that cannot and will not be understood.

  12. #27
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    Re: FA's to be

    I wanted to get this back to the front page so we can see our options for possible FA's now that BCast has stated that we will have a "substantially higher" payroll next season.

    Let's hope so because the time is now while this division is in a state of flux.

    Flux: A word that describes a level of trash!

    When and how the Reds add to their five World Championships, nine pennants and nine division titles seems less important than the franchises' lineage, which traces a line back to the dawn of the professional game and their role as keeper of the historic flame they lit by birthing the Red Stockings in 1869.

  13. #28
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    Re: FA's to be

    A-Rod, Wood, Linebrink, Schilling, Glavine, Jennings, Colon, Rivera, Isringhausen could all be worth it for a year or two if Castellini keeps the payroll up (in some cases it wouldn't matter as much though).

    Definitely need to trade for some big salaries who are of high quality though and keep developing some of the younger starter/bullpen arms.

    The last couple years it seems the team has tried to develop the young players (good) while adding vets who are not very good. They have been stuck on the fence and have not seemed sure which direction they wanted to go.

    Let's just say they brought in A-Rod. Edwin would likely get traded as part of a package deal at that point. It could all be a domino effect if they really target expensive yet high-quality players on the FA list to go along with trades.

    Now, it seems Castellini is finally having the team drop off one side and go for it all. Let's just hope they don't get the side with the hungry dog.

    They can do this; they just have to be smart about it.
    The Simpson family gathers around, as Homer places Bart's passed test on the fridge.)

    Homer: We're proud of you, boy.

    Bart: Thanks, Dad. But part of this D-minus belongs to God.

  14. #29
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    Re: FA's to be

    Izzy's option has been picked up.

  15. #30
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    Re: FA's to be

    you can have Linbrink... I dont think A-Rod will realistically sign in Cincinnati.

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