Arroyo Rumors

[missionhockey21]

It must be a career trend for him then because he's below .500 with an ERA of 4.30...screams 4th/5th starter to me. He's lost an average of approximately 10.5 games in each of the last 4 seasons winning an average of approximately winning 10.5. Hardly #2 stuff. I'd love to hear this argument though oh wise and mighty sage

Oh sarcasm directed right at me and calling me out, fun stuff. Opening up an argument with the W/L record with me is opening a can of worms we'll save for another time.

First off, did I say that based on his performance this year indicates a #2? No I did not, at least not explicitly. Arroyo was lucky last season, the stats show it and I don't feel like looking them up. That still didn't change the fact that upon coming over to the National League his numbers did improve and he became a more dominant pitcher. I was wrong to act in such definitive ways that he is a #2 (in stuff) as luck plays a part in it as does park effects (which hurt him at this point if you look at the splits, he's a 4.39 ERA on the road in about 20 more innings than at home) but 2-3 is his category. And I really could careless about his days in Pittsburgh or even in Boston.

In 2006 he threw 3,852 pitches, a 100 more than his teammate Aaron Harang, they were #1 and #2 in the NL. His 3,852 pitches were the most since Livan Hernandez and his freak of nature arm in 2004 and 2003, and Randy Johnson in 2002. Outside of that in recent memory, it's been Arroyo. From 2004 to 2005 to 2006, Arroyo increased about 500 pitches each season. And despite the HORRID starts he has had this year, do you know he is still #13 in pitches thrown this year and within spitting distance of climbing up those ranks. Oh and the people that rank above him: Zambrano, Kazmir, Haren, Daniel Cabrera, Harang, Sabathia, Blanton, Meche, Dice-K, Oswalt, Bedard, and Webb.... outside of Cabrera, people generally regarded as some of the best in the league, #1's or #2's pretty much.

What normally happens with Bronson is that the Reds expect him to be a horse at all times. Fans love him and complaints in the past have been made about pitchers being pulled too early, Arroyo has the arm to pitch a lot, but not at that rate, not at the 120 plus pitch game that he can sometimes have. His arm and his frame makes him a successful 100-105 pitch guy. He can go deep when hitters hit the pitch he wants them too and he hits his spots. Thus when his stuff is on, he can sometimes go into a game for a long period of time while being effective, the problem is the Reds look at his innings pitched and not his pitch count to try to pigeonhole him into a "type" of pitcher.

Note his 2.86 ERA April. Pitch counts of 108, 103, 104, 96 and 96. The Reds were moderate in their usage of Arroyo and he was successful, going 6-7 IP consistently, getting a respectable K/9 and not being hittable to the point that his hits are above his innings pitched.

May 1st rolls around and he throws 95 pitches in 7 innings of 3 hit, one run ball. In Colorado, he struggles a bit more only going 5.2 innings of 3 run ball but throwing 120 this time around. No doubt Colorado is a bit harder to pitch in as we all know, and for a very high movement pitcher like Arroyo, he might of re-adjusted for the worst. After that it's a 6 inning affair of 2 runs for 117 pitches. Then with the help of PetCo, he goes 8 innings of one run ball with a 129 pitches (taking a well deserved loss.) After that, what happens? Well, let's list it out:

6 ER, 2 IP (62 pitches)
(4 runs in the first, 2 runs in the second.)
6 ER, 4 IP (95 pitches)
8 ER, 5 IP (83 pitches)
6 ER, 6.2 IP (119 pitches)
3 ER, 6 IP (115 pitches)
6 ER, 6 IP (105 pitches)
He gets 7 off days
3 ER, 7 IP (109 pitches)
1 ER, 7 IP (113 pitches)
3 ER, 6.2 IP (114 pitches)
3 ER, 7 IP (95 pitches)
0 ER, 7 IP (100 pitches)
4 ER, 6 IP (105 pitches)
0 ER, 7.2 IP (123 pitches)
We're up to current times now, I wonder how Bronson will fare after 123 pitches after all his use last season.
7 ER, 1.2 IP (58 pitches)

So despite Bronson not having his best stuff on those nights, the Reds would just refuse to take him out when he should be taken out to avoid a collapse. Remember his pitch counts from April, very modest and he had great success. Arroyo is a very determined guy and doesn't like to be taken out and I think the Reds like to sell that. He gets into trouble and usually they don't warm anybody up unless it's clear what is happening. Then when Bronson is on, they let him stay out there in the hopes of a complete game (trying to sell the whole Harang-Arroyo, pitching in Cincy deal) where he just tires out.

It's interesting to see his pitch count break down because it shows you the mentality that he has, at 91-105 pitches just a .719 OPS against (which could lead the Reds to keep him out longer.) Go to 106-120 and it's a 1.279 OPS (in a little under half the AB's.) It's not just that he gets hit hard when he's out there in those pitch counts, he looks gone, he looks gassed. If you ever pitched, I am sure you know what I am talking about when you start to get up there in the numbers. Like I said, his pitches lose their movement which is everything to his style and he goes around the zone pretty erradictly forcing him to just put something with no zip or movement over the plate. And it's not just with those pitch counts but it's after a start where he should of been pulled much earlier and is visibly fatigued in the next game.

So do I think on the right team with a coach/front office who would use Arroyo to what his body dictates him to be pitching could he be a #2? Possible, I will admit my statement before was glib and thinking of all the success he has had without thinking of some of the luck that comes with it. But a number three and a damn good one? You better believe it. This is a guy who pitched close to 4000 pitches last season and is feeling the effects of it still when the Reds push him over his limit.

Look at the numbers indepthly, game by game, and a pattern does show. Arroyo needs rest after that last start since the Reds aren't going anywhere and he needs to be kept under 105 for even the best of starts.

[Providence A's]

I wasn't trying to argue with you Mission...hence the wink...more like a playful poke of the bear I guess. My contention wasn't based on W/L...I used it in conjunction with his ERA and his career numbers. I don't think I could ever be convinced that a pitcher with a career ERA of 4.0 or higher was or ever will be higher than a borderline #3 pitcher.

Yes, most pitchers tend to get hit more if they're left in too long. I don't disagree there. That's obviously not the pitcher's fault. But his overall numbers are still inline with his career numbers. I know you say you don't care about that necessarily, but are you trying to imply that what has happened to him this year has happened to him all of his career? I find that hard to believe. I will concede that his overall numbers this year would be better and his career numbers would be slightly better if he was used more effectively, but that wouldn't really change my opinion that he's better suited as a #4 in most rotations...maybe a borderline #3. Good backup information to your statements/opinions though (not sarcasm). Thanks bro.

edit: Oh, and I do kind of agree with Slyder about not trading Arroyo in a sense due to the fact that anything in FA is going to cost more even if it was a pitcher of equal value compared to Arroyo. Any pitcher better than Arroyo would cost even more. So if Arroyo ever were to be traded, a near MLB ready starting pitching prospect would have to be involved. That is the only way teams like the Reds and A's (and others) are going to get good pitching...(trades, drafting, and developing). They're not going to be major players in FA for players like Santana or whoever may be available in the future.

[CincyRedsFan30]

Providence, so your contention is someone is probably a No. 4 pitcher (and MAYBE boarderline No. 3) if they have a career ERA of 4.00 or higher? I think you need to look at pitcher's numbers. I think you are undervaluing some pitchers who are probably better than you think they are in terms of how they stack up with their peers. You have probably been spoiled in Oakland in recent years.

Just for kicks, what do you consider Harang's "number" to be?

And mission, your last post was excellent!! Very nice job of breaking down the situation.

[Providence A's]

Harang has pitched like a #1 that last 2 years for sure...he would be a #1 on bad teams and probably a #1/#2 on most teams and definitely a #2 on better teams.

I have looked at pitchers and their numbers, thanks. You don't need to tell me what to do. I'm not a child lol. It's just my opinion about Arroyo. Some people share it, some people don't. Oh well.

[NFLman2033]

so that makes him a #2 pitcher?

Of course that is important to an extent, but just because he pitches a lot of innings doesn't mean he's a top pitcher.

exactly.. I really have to say only blind homerism would think Arroyo (outside of last year) has shown that he is anything but a #4 or #5 guy.. Lets face it he had a career year last year, and it is likely that we will never see that sort of production out of him ever gain.. fans of this team have been wanting a great pitcher that they will latch to anyone who gives us a year like last year, I remember when it was Pete Schourek and John Smiley.. or when Denny Neagle and Pete Harnisch.. then it was Jimmy Haynes and Paul Wilson.

Arroyo will go down as being right in with most of them better then the Haynes, but ultimately nothing like a Rijo or a Harang.