5/26 Reds vs. Pirates

[reds44]

Welcome back Edwin.

[missionhockey21]

I am not sure about whether it is the first ever in the amateur draft. I just don't know Reds history or draft history further than the last 10 years or so. But yeah, Stubbs was a major mistake (although I think he will be solid) because guys like Lincecum were still available. I think the Reds went off of media hype to be honest. How you see Stubbs as a better fit than Lincecum is beyond my imagination.

There really wasn't that much hype for Stubbs, other than what the Reds generated. All of the comparison players (like how Bruce was often compared in potential to Larry Walker) was Mike Cameron. MLB ready defense, speed and a questionable bat with some power. Lincecum is the glaring player they skipped on, but there were so many others.

Say what you want about O'Brien, but I thank him everytime I think of where our system would be without Bruce and Bailey (I would assume Reynolds could also be thanked.)

[redsrbetter]

I agree completely mission. I still think there was more hype than you may think there was for Stubbs. I heard many say that he was the best outfield prospect in the draft and the Reds treated him as such. I even heard "perennial 5-tool" being listed next to his name. Which still could be possible, but they are mediocre 5-tools. Nowhere near elite. I think he will be solid, but not solid enough for an 8th overall pick.

[redsrbetter]

Check this out on Stubbs:

BaseballAmerica.com: Draft: 2006 Draft Best Tools

Stuff like this was what made Stubbs more hype than good.

[missionhockey21]

I agree completely mission. I still think there was more hype than you may think there was for Stubbs. I heard many say that he was the best outfield prospect in the draft and the Reds treated him as such. I even heard "perennial 5-tool" being listed next to his name. Which still could be possible, but they are mediocre 5-tools. Nowhere near elite. I think he will be solid, but not solid enough for an 8th overall pick.

Let me rephrase that, there was hype but it was for the wrong reasons. Jay Bruce is going to be one fantastic hitter, everyone knows if he reaches his potential he will be. Drew Stubbs is a fantastic athlete (very similar to Rocco Baldelli for instance) and he got praise for being the 6-4 or 6-5 solidly built, strong and fast kid that he is. But his other skills as a hitter outside of power (pitch selection, patience, etc) can be questioned. He has a long swing and he chases way too many pitches to drive out of the park. Plus a lot of scouts thought that being a big athletic kid with an aluminum bat, give him a fastball and he would scorch it but look for a punchout if you give him something with a break to it.

The way I have always seen Stubbs is like a car with a Ferrari for the body but the engine could use some work. There is little not to like about Stubbs being an all around great in terms of what he can physically do, but he has holes in his offensive game that need to be address before he gets there. He is a first round pick of course and I am not dooming him to being a nothing, but we had pick number eight last year and we took a much bigger gamble than we needed to.

[redsrbetter]

Exactly mission, you hit the nail right on the head and didn't miss. Which brings us to the conclusion that Stubbs was selected in the first round, but much too early. I still can't get passed the guys that we passed on. In that matter, I have to also agree with you that DanO and Reynold especially will be missed.

I hope that this years draft will allow us to get excited about this regime in its ability to evaluate talent. Because if this happens again, this losing we are doing will be all for nothing come 2008.

BTW, great metaporical speaking once again man.

[missionhockey21]

I think Lincecum is wicked nasty and while it's questionable if his body can sustain being an MLB starter for years (that was my number one question over him last year) it still doesn't make any sense how a guy who was projected to be a top 5 (IIRC) in Lincecum that kept falling wouldn't land to a team so desperate for relief help that we would bring in the likes of Cormier and Stanton to satisfy our needs... because if Lincecum doesn't work out as a starter it's clear to see that he has the stuff to be nails as the closer.

I know the Stubbs rant was a bit extravagant because I do believe he has a lot of talent and would of been a great pick for some team, but I just don't think that he was fitting for a team that wanted to win sooner than later and who has a quality outfield (substitute Kearns for now Hamilton of course). Of course seeing how this season is turning out, maybe its not so bad that the Reds were building for later but the impatient fan wants results know obviously.

This year's draft will be interesting with the sandwich picks that we're getting. The class is weaker, but if we're allowed to have deep pockets, the Reds should be able to sign all the high dollar signing bonus players that slip on bye if we're serious about getting some much needed depth to the system. And who knows, Krivsky might have some really good selections that come out of the other rounds down the road with Stubbs, but on paper at the time, that was at best an average effort IMO.

[CincyRedsFan30]

Arroyo and Harang; the two workhorses; both seem fatigued at times (Arroyo's more recently).

From what I saw (bits and pieces), Arroyo was falling off a lot tonight.

It seems odd that after that 127-pitch outing Arroyo has suddenly had two bad starts in a row and is walking more batters than he ever does.

[redsrbetter]

Yeah, I was just about to say something on Arroyo. Thats two straight outings where he was cut short. He has been awful of late. If we had twoplayers to build around, it is definitely Harang and Arroyo. This franchise has taken far too long to get two respectable top of the rotation type pitchers. Now we have it, I truly hope it doesn't end before we can see something greater than what we saw last season. I want to see Harang, Arroyo and Bailey in the same rotation next year.

I am not saying Arroyo or Harang will be washed up by next season, I just get a little scared when this starts to become a trend.

[CincyRedsFan30]

Yup, redsr.

On another note: Coutlangus seems more "developed" as pitcher than Salmon and Burton. They either don't trust in their second pitch or have some other reason for not using it right now. I know they both CAN throw them, as they have even thrown a few good ones at times. Coutlangus seems to have more grasp over his pitches at this point though. I don't think his ERA does him justice (often the case for relievers). He has been good overall. I'm not saying he hasn't or never will get hit; he still has some stuff to learn and will naturally experience the ups-and-downs most young pitchers do, but I definitely like his future potential.