"We're better than it looks"

[NFLman2033]

better use of the bullpen would have given us 5-10 more wins.. just sit and think on that one

[CincyRedsFan30]

A lot of it is the issue of non-clutch.

The Reds often seem to be just that and lose a lot of close games and blow a lot of games they could easily win.

Check out the run differential for the Cards and then their actual record.

Even in a weakened form, they appear to be more clutch.

[Boognish]

A lot of it is the issue of non-clutch.

The Reds often seem to be just that and lose a lot of close games and blow a lot of games they could easily win.

Check out the run differential for the Cards and then their actual record.

Even in a weakened form, they appear to be more clutch.

Are certain teams and/or coaching staffs able to consistently outperform their runs scored/allowed ratio in terms of Wins and Losses? I really don't think so...I remember the Giants under Baker consistently won more than their RS/RA would lend one to believe, but Baker was unable to repeat this trend with the Cubs and Sabean's charges ceased to do so once Baker left.

Because we follow the Reds closely, we analyze every play and the team appears much more "non-clutch" than it actually is. A good OBP or out-avoidance rate is in the .350 range; that means nearly two-thirds of the time one will produce an out. The Reds' perceived "lack of clutch" is exacerbated by the fact that they are not a team that takes extra bases and makes multiple baserunning blunders, and teams with poor bullpens tend not to allow leads that are initially accumulated to hold up.

I was in attendance for three debacles on this recent homestand, and the core of the Reds' problems still seems to be the decade-old "too many stiffs on the pitching staff," not lack of hitting, getting shut down by the likes of Mike Bascik aside. This is not a deep roster, and the poor players at the back end of it have performed horrendously for the most part (Castro, Saarloos, Hopper, Moeller, Stanton, Cormier, etc.), with the possible exception of Santos.

All of the stops have to be pulled out to strengthen the organization so the 40-man and eventually the 25-man can be brought to the top third of the NL in talent...and there is a long way to go...we will likely have to suffer through many more veteran stopgaps, most of which can be expected to perform at or below projections rather than catch lightning in a bottle like Aurilia, Randa, or Hatteberg.

[CincyRedsFan30]

I see what you are saying but I don't agree.

I have made the Cards vs. Reds comparison for a while now and even when the Cards have had more talent, they still seem to win games when they need to more often.

I'm not jumping off the Cards bandwagon because it's steady and consistent.

I know some don't believe in clutch, but I do. I don't think any conclusive evidence exists on either end of the argument but I have a very strong gut feeling that it does in fact exist and the more I see, the more I think it does.

[Boognish]

I see what you are saying but I don't agree.

I have made the Cards vs. Reds comparison for a while now and even when the Cards have had more talent, they still seem to win games when they need to more often.

I'm not jumping off the Cards bandwagon because it's steady and consistent.

I know some don't believe in clutch, but I do. I don't think any conclusive evidence exists on either end of the argument but I have a very strong gut feeling that it does in fact exist and the more I see, the more I think it does.

I'm not suggesting that you should abandon your observation regarding the Cards. They are an extremely well-managed franchise and I have recently come to grips with the fact that my loathing of LaRussa is merely jealousy fueled by the fact that the Reds have had too many "go with your gut" managers who also have no control over their charges, a brutal combination.

The Cards have the best pitching coach in the business in Duncan and one of baseball's top 3 GMs in Jocketty. Their management works extensively with batted ball and other empirical data to determine which players have exaggerated platoon splits, etc. Jocketty and the field management team has turned other teams' garbage into useful role players for some time now (Spiezio, Rodriguez, Wilson, countless relief pitching specialists), and he absolutely robbed Anaheim for Edmonds and acquired Rolen in a trade as well.
The moral is, I think what you are seeing and terming "clutch" is the Cards' seemingly unparalleled ability to put players in the best possible positions to succeed.

I think more than an amorphous concept such as "clutch," one should realize they are never pinch-hitting the likes of Chad Moeller or Juan Castro in crucial situations, maximizing their likelihood of coming though in such key situations. As you alluded earlier, the Cards have also had more talented teams overall on a year-in, year-out basis, and that is why they are in the playoffs consistently and the Reds are shaking their heads looking for answers in Jimmy Haynes and the like.

[redsrbetter]

Sounds to me like both of your thoughts agree with one another. Both of you agree that the Cardinals have more talent and therefore come thorugh in more clutch situations.

I believe in clutch for sure. But you have to have the talent on your roster to see it happen. The bottom line is that this organization does not compare to the Cards right now because of what both of you are suggesting. We have mediocrity in our role playing positions and we do not have the right leadership to both acquire the talent and later use that talent in the right situation.

The Cards are superior right now because Krivsky has not been able to provide the right talent to the roster and Narron has not used this lackluster talent in a profitable manner.

[Boognish]

Sounds to me like both of your thoughts agree with one another. Both of you agree that the Cardinals have more talent and therefore come thorugh in more clutch situations.

The Cards are superior right now because Krivsky has not been able to provide the right talent to the roster and Narron has not used this lackluster talent in a profitable manner.

Agree. The 25-man roster must be upgraded. Right now, this team lacks the depth to put runs on the board after a couple of substitutions, keep runs off the board late in games, and absorb inevitable injuries with minimal loss in production.

Our outfield surplus of yesteryear has evaporated into Hollandsworths, Hoppers, and Wises.

[redsrbetter]

Our outfield surplus of yesteryear has evaporated into Hollandsworths, Hoppers, and Wises.

I think once Hamilton comes off the DL, it will look much different as Freel would be the odd man out. Of course, that all depends on how long Freel is going to be out with his recent crash course.

But having Hamilton, Griffey, and Dunn in the outfield as regulars solidifies a nice tandem and upgrades the bench tremendously. But we still would have someone like Castro wasting away on the bench. Or in Narron's case catching two starts a week and killing the team's chances at contending in games where he starts.

For me, a better bench means better in the clutch during pinch hit moments and when the manager feels it is necessary to rest a starter. I would feel much better with strong role players vs the Moeller's and Castro's of the world.

[CincyRedsFan30]

OK, Boog, I liked that last post of yours.

That makes your position more clear and I agree with it in essence.

I have been saying here for a few years that Jocketty sees past a player's past numbers and is able to judge which players he and the rest of the staff can maximize the talent of. Spiezio is a great example. Jeff Weaver is a great example. I have said the same thing for a while now.

Good to see some are beginning to see the same things.

[Boognish]

OK, Boog, I liked that last post of yours.

That makes your position more clear and I agree with it in essence.

I have been saying here for a few years that Jocketty sees past a player's past numbers and is able to judge which players he and the rest of the staff can maximize the talent of. Spiezio is a great example. Jeff Weaver is a great example. I have said the same thing for a while now.

Good to see some are beginning to see the same things.

Hey, CRF30, as much as I hate to admit it, they have been the class of the division for the last half dozen years. Also, their struggles this year show that promising youngsters will also have their struggles despite the upside...Reyes optioned down with 8 losses and an ERA over 6 with huge command issues, Wainwright hemmorhaging baserunners to the tune of a WHIP of about 1.9 and an ERA about even with Reyes. A lot of this can be attributable to Edmonds' precipitous loss of range in the OF, but not a significant enough portion.

St. Louis, like the Reds, eperiencing problems with the veteran component of their roster. With Carpenter down, Isringhausen is really the only elder statesman performing above his expected level (coming back admirably from his balky hip), and the offense--particularly the black hole of production from their middle IF--is counting on a shot in the arm from the hacktastic Juan Encarnacion.

Then again, I don't count them out until they're dead as they have proven the ability to resurrect their season from the ashes in the past.