Bailey article, Bruce Blurb

[Mario-Rijo]

Thought this would spark some interest/debate. The article is about Bailey but the real jewel is at the bottom about Jay Bruce, check it out.

Krivsky: Bailey club's priority
BY JOHN FAY | JFAY@ENQUIRER.COM AND KEVIN KELLY
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There's been a lot of speculation that one of the reasons Homer Bailey hasn't been called up to the Reds is that the club doesn't want to start his service-time clock.
"That's a bunch of garbage," Reds general manager Wayne Krivsky said. "The only thing we're concerned about is to do right by Homer Bailey." If the Reds were to bring up Bailey anytime soon, there's a good chance he'd be a "Super Two" in 2009 and not need that third full year to qualify for arbitration.

Here's how Super Twos are defined by the players' association:
"A player with at least two but less than three years of Major League service shall be eligible for salary arbitration if he has accumulated at least 86 days of service during the immediately preceding season and he ranks in the top 17 percent in total service in the class of Players who have at least two but less than three years of Major League service, however accumulated, but with at least 86 days of service accumulated during the immediately preceding season."
The cutoff date for Super Twos usually falls around July 1.

"Forget all that," Krivsky said. "We're trying to win games."
Bailey, a 21-year-old right-hander, returned from the disabled list (groin strain) Monday and pitched for Triple-A Louisville. He went 52/3 innings in a 6-5 win over Columbus, allowing one hit and one unearned run, to improve to 4-1 with a 1.99 ERA. He struck out seven and walked one.

WAY BACK: A member of the Astros' player development staff when that organization selected Kirk Saarloos in the 2001 first-year player draft, Nationals manager Manny Acta offered his players advice before facing the Reds right-hander Tuesday.
Saarloos, who was making his first start of the season, retired the first six Nationals he faced and finished with three earned runs allowed on six hits over 51/3 innings.
"I told my guys, 'If you don't make him get the ball up, he's going to make you guys beat the ball into the ground the whole night,' " Acta said. "He did that for the most part. He did a very good job coming out of the bullpen and this one being his first start."

NICE GESTURE: Before Tuesday's game, the Reds' pitching staff surprised bullpen catcher Mike Stefanski with a showroom-new Chevrolet Silverado pickup truck as a show of their appreciation for his tireless work.
"It's overwhelming," he said.

QUICK STUDY: In 2004, the Giants decided to try one of their outfield prospects as a pitcher. Jon Coutlangus took to the move, and the left- hander made his major league debut with the Reds earlier this season.
Through Monday, he had the highest percentage of inherited baserunners left stranded (93 percent) among Reds relievers.
"It's nice to see a young guy come up and have a lot of poise and get the job done," Reds manager Jerry Narron said.
Coutlangus tossed 11/3 scoreless innings during Monday's win and entered Tuesday having not allowed a run over his past eight appearances. That streak ended with one out in the eighth inning when Nationals second baseman Felipe Lopez hit a grand slam off Coutlangus.

MOVING BRUCE? It sounds as if Jay Bruce will be bumped up to Double-A Chattanooga. The question is, when?
"Whether it's at the All-Star break or before, I don't know," player development director Terry Reynolds said. "But he's proven to us that he's ready for the next step."
Bruce, 20, a first-round pick in the 2004 draft, entered Tuesday hitting .345 with nine home runs and 32 RBI in 43 games at Sarasota.

[TeamSelig]

Awesome. So are we looking at a 2009 debut?

[redsrbetter]

With him being a position player, I am hoping for a 2008 debut. He just has to tear it up at every level and move up quickly. The guy is an all-star in the making and as soon as he shows he can hit at the AA level, you call him up to Louisville. Even if that means he does it this year. I think you call him up to Chatannooga right now.

[TeamSelig]

I like the whole AA to Majors deal. If he tears up AA in the 2nd half of the season and continues in the first half of next season, then maybe he could play for us in 2008. Slumps, injuries, etc. I figured 2009 would be a good bet to see him play.

If he keeps this up, I think we will see the end of Adam Dunn.

[missionhockey21]

I am a Dunn fan, many know that, but I really believe unless we find the right GM with the right deal trading a prospect would net a much better fair return (for what we're giving up) than Dunn. Dunn has too much a negative stigma about him from the defense, to the strikeouts, the contract, etc. And given Krivsky's ability to be swindled in deals, we would be likely losing our top offensive performer year in and year out at his prime in a deal that would induce vomiting.

[redsrbetter]

And I hate to vomit. You have to figure Bruce will be Dunn's replacement though. Dunn is expensive and Bruce is a cheaper and some would say better option. So as soon as this team figures out the season is over, do we shop Dunn?

[missionhockey21]

A better option? They are different players and Bruce projects very highly (I don't doubt that he could in fact be better than Dunn), but when he starts stringing together 40 homerun seasons and the kind of run producing seasons Dunn has had, we can call them contemporaries. If you trade Dunn, the offense will look pathetically weak as you can't reasonably expect Votto or Bruce (Votto can have what seems to be season long development slumps, Bruce is very young and I expect the organization to play it very slow with him) to step in to replace his production. If Dunn is traded, you might as well take a wreaking ball to this team because we will simply not score enough runs to be competitive, so ship it all off. Hamilton by all regards is still a AA player and as the scouting report has improved on him, so has the pitcher's ability to know how to play him and he'll need to play development catchup. Phillips lacks any plate discipline. Ed E has been inconsistent. There is just no clear young offensive savior that we can count on at the MLB level to replace the production lost. Everyone mentions the contract, but it was this ownership and this GM who gave it to him, had this been a Lidner/O'Brien deal it might be a different story. I am not saying it isn't a consideration and that he won't be dealt, but I don't think the front office has OCD over getting rid of it at any cost.

If anything, Bruce is Jr.'s replacement. Griffey's contract is through 2008, Bruce is young and will likely get his cup of coffee in mid-2008 if he tears it up. I don't think they want to waste his kind of defense in leftfield.

[redsrbetter]

The main reason why I say Bruce is Dunn's replacement is because I really think they want to trade him. I am not saying they should as it definitely will take a major chunk out of our offense. As you said, we cannot depend on young guys to carry the team. Especially if they haven't played a lick at the MLB level yet. They need at least a season to get things together to make a major impression on the lineup. Especially if I am considering Bruce to be an option in 2008.

Maybe he is a replacement for Griffey too. Right now, I think we could get more in a trade from Griffey if he goes to a contender before the deadline. So maybe you are right in your thinking there. I also think it would be better for the team to go that route. But as I said, I truly believe Dunn is quietly being shopped already.

[missionhockey21]

I think Dunn and many other players have been shopped, but again... it was this ownership who signed off on the Dunn contract and this front office who worked it and the management that brought in a hitting coach that Dunn favored in the minors. Just because he has a big option coming up doesn't mean they are desperate to sell him at any cost due to said contract. I think in the coming weeks, about anyone could be had at the right price, but I am hoping the front office isn't as poor in judgment to be desperate to lose Dunn just due to the contract like some believe.

[redsrbetter]

I really don't think it is all about his contract either. I know they are the ones who signed him. They knew exactly what production they were going to get when they signed him as well. I am just thinking outside the box.

I hope you are right mission. I think Dunn could be built around for sure. But with the confidence this FO has in Hamilton and likely Bruce, I believe they are thinking Dunn is expendable. Comparing Bruce and Dunn may have been a mistake because it is invalid until we see what Bruce can do when called upon.

Also, with the lack of faith this team has in EdE, you have to think there is a better shot of Dunn staying. You mentioned it earlier that the rest of the lineup has not shown any kind of consistency. Dunn has and it may be what keeps him here.

Obviously, I am on a fence here. Not sure which side of it I am leaning on, nor which side of it I want to be on.