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Thread: Early Roster Predictions

  1. #1
    Hall of Famer CincyRedsFan30's Avatar
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    Early Roster Predictions

    Who will make the cut to the top 25?

    My list:

    Dunn
    Griffey
    Freel
    Denorfia
    Phillips
    Encarnacion
    Hatteberg
    Gonzalez
    Ross
    Valentin
    Castro
    Conine
    Hamilton
    Harang
    Arroyo
    Milton
    Lohse
    Saarloos
    Belisle
    Coffey
    Majewski
    Bray
    Cormier
    Stanton
    Weathers
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    Hall of Famer CincyRedsFan30's Avatar
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    I'm also going to throw out some initial projected statistics for each of those players. These could change for a variety of reasons before the season starts. We can start a new thread for those predictions. Some of these numbers might not be reasonable or seem to "add up" based on the past, etc., but here is an initial crack:

    Dunn: .281/.415/.588
    Griffey: .268/.337/.510
    Freel: .295/.375/.390
    Denorfia: .310/.380/.405
    Phillips: .265/.325/.415
    Encarnacion: .299/.366/.495
    Gonzalez: .277/.317/.434
    Hatteberg: .303/.388/.420
    Ross: .275/.320/.460
    Valentin: .266/.313/.415
    Castro: .260/.310/.375
    Conine: .278/.334/.420
    Hamilton: .290/.365/.460

    Harang: 3.32 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 227 IP
    Arroyo: 4.14 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 212 IP
    Milton: 5.17 ERA, 1.477 WHIP, 138 IP
    Lohse: 4.94 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 150 IP
    Saarloos: 4.41 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 160 IP

    Belisle: 3.48 ERA, 1.42 WHIP
    Coffey: 3.58 ERA, 1.48 WHIP
    Majewski: 4.66 ERA, 1.55 WHIP
    Bray: 3.17 ERA, 1.37 WHIP
    Cormier: 5.09 ERA, 1.41 WHIP
    Stanton: 4.04 ERA, 1.45 WHIP
    Weathers: 4.62 ERA, 1.52 WHIP
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  3. #3
    MVP NFLman2033's Avatar
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    sad to say but you probably have the players right although i am now offically on the wanting to see Bailey make the team out of ST, even though I know it won't happen.. this is what we think not what we want.

    but I will say that your predicted stats are a bit High for a few guys.

    Loshe and Saarloos will be extremely lucky to keep their ERA below 5 in fact i don't see it even happening

    Valentin, Castro, and Conine are all way too high IMO.. they will all be sub .250 avg

    i agree with most of everyone else

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    Hall of Famer CincyRedsFan30's Avatar
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    I am not as sure regarding Lohse.

    I get this good vibe when it comes to Saarloos. I think the league switch could be good for him, plus his tendency to induce grounders could be good with the Phillips/Gonzalez combination up the middle.

    I projected Valentin to have a .728 OPS because I think he'll play more this year and will get more HR opportunities. Castro I think can reach a .685 OPS, especially with his ability to get clutch hits. I think Conine could get up to a .754 OPS at GABP.

    Anyway, thanks for replying to the thread.

    Looks like I might be the only one to post projections this early.
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    Hall of Famer Slyder's Avatar
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    I want to see what Homer B. does in ST before I start predicting the roster.
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    "Oh, don't mind me, I'm rebuilding now" then you win at least 80 games

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    Hall of Famer CincyRedsFan30's Avatar
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    That's why I said "early" roster projections.

    Just trying to get discussion started as Saturday is the big day.
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  7. #7
    Hall of Famer Slyder's Avatar
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    Catchers:
    *David Ross
    Javier Valentin

    Infielders:
    &Scott Hatteberg
    &Jeff Conine
    *Brandon Phillips
    *Alex Gonzalez
    *Edwin Encarncion
    Jeff Keppinger (acquired from KC, utility guy who hit pretty well in AAA)
    Juan Castro

    Outfield:
    *Adam Dunn
    &Ken Griffey, Jr.
    &Ryan Freel
    &Chris Denorfia
    Josh Hamilton

    Rotation
    Aaron Harang
    Bronson Arroyo
    Eric Milton
    Elizardo Ramirez (healthy)
    Kyle Lohse (would love to see him try and give the pen a full try)

    Pen:
    Kirk Saarloos R (first guy to replace a starter if someone misses a start)
    Mike Stanton L
    Bill Bray L
    Matt Belilse R
    David Weathers R
    Todd Coffey R

    Key
    * Starter
    & Represents likely platoon/extra rest of some sort (IE keep Griff healthy as long as possible).
    HollywoodLeo: You and Kingdom always annoy me
    "Oh, don't mind me, I'm rebuilding now" then you win at least 80 games

    RIP S3SL Minnesota Twins.

    RIP HSL Anaheim Angels

    Rebuilding the Dodger Blues
    Renewed Start back in the land of 10,000 lakes

  8. #8
    MVP NFLman2033's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by CincyRedsFan30 View Post
    I am not as sure regarding Lohse.

    I get this good vibe when it comes to Saarloos. I think the league switch could be good for him, plus his tendency to induce grounders could be good with the Phillips/Gonzalez combination up the middle.

    I projected Valentin to have a .728 OPS because I think he'll play more this year and will get more HR opportunities. Castro I think can reach a .685 OPS, especially with his ability to get clutch hits. I think Conine could get up to a .754 OPS at GABP.

    Anyway, thanks for replying to the thread.

    Looks like I might be the only one to post projections this early.
    yeah i can concede the Saarloos bit, because he could have a strong 1st half with the league switch and groundballs are huge for GABP, lol, it might be better for him to start at GABP and Milton to start on the road..

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    Here is my 25 man and predictions:

    Lineup: (through the eyes of Narron)

    RF Freel .270/.360/.385 (will lead the team in SB and crashes)
    1B Hatteberg .310/.410/.435 (will be second on the team in .OBP)
    CF Griffey .265/.330/.490 (will K a lot and be injured a lot, will not move to RF)
    3B EdE .295/.380/.495 (will be the most improved player and the team MVP)
    LF Dunn .235/.417/.520 (will start to get things back on track, but still will not hit for AVG)
    C Ross .265/.320/.450 (will hit for some pop, but not as intriguing as last season)
    2B Phillips .280/.360/.425 (will improve, will be a force on both sides of the field)
    SS Gonzo .257/.330/.400 (will play defense)

    rotation:
    Harang 3.35 ERA 1.14 WHIP (will maintain his ace status)
    Arroyo 4.17 ERA 1.26 WHIP (will regress from last season, but will keep us in games)
    Milton 5.09 ERA 1.3 WHIP (will look great in the beginning of the season, but will find bad luck later)
    Saarloos 4.77 ERA 1.48 WHIP (will either surprise us, or give what is expected)
    Lohse 5.28 ERA 1.55 WHIP (has nasty stuff and will move to the bullpen when Bailey arrives)

    bullpen:
    long-relief:
    Belisle 2.98 ERA 1.19 WHIP (good stuff, but hopefully he can show it this year)
    MRP:
    Coffey 3.14 ERA 1.17 WHIP (will amaze everyone as the hardest worker on the team)
    Bray 3.97 ERA 1.38 WHIP (still young, still raw, but will impress)
    Majewski 3.47 ERA 1.26 WHIP (will make us happy we have him regardless of "the trade")
    Cormier 5.67 ERA 1.61 WHIP (will show he has no reason to pitch any more)
    set-up:
    Stanton 4.88 ERA 1.5 WHIP (will stay in the set-up role despite bad numbers because Narron is a joke)
    closer:
    Weathers 4.57 ERA 1.34 WHIP (see Stanton)

    bench:
    C Valentin (will swing for the fences on first pitch fastballs)
    IF:
    Castro (will play defense, but don't expect those clutch moments from him again)
    Conine (will be much like Hatteberg, but from the other side)
    outfield:
    Denorfia (will cover nicely for oft injured Griffey and Freel)
    Hamilton (will sit the bench)

  10. #10
    MVP NFLman2033's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by redsrbetter View Post
    Here is my 25 man and predictions:

    Lineup: (through the eyes of Narron)

    RF Freel .270/.360/.385 (will lead the team in SB and crashes)
    1B Hatteberg .310/.410/.435 (will be second on the team in .OBP)
    CF Griffey .265/.330/.490 (will K a lot and be injured a lot, will not move to RF)
    3B EdE .295/.380/.495 (will be the most improved player and the team MVP)
    LF Dunn .235/.417/.520 (will start to get things back on track, but still will not hit for AVG)
    C Ross .265/.320/.450 (will hit for some pop, but not as intriguing as last season)
    2B Phillips .280/.360/.425 (will improve, will be a force on both sides of the field)
    SS Gonzo .257/.330/.400 (will play defense)

    rotation:
    Harang 3.35 ERA 1.14 WHIP (will maintain his ace status)
    Arroyo 4.17 ERA 1.26 WHIP (will regress from last season, but will keep us in games)
    Milton 5.09 ERA 1.3 WHIP (will look great in the beginning of the season, but will find bad luck later)
    Saarloos 4.77 ERA 1.48 WHIP (will either surprise us, or give what is expected)
    Lohse 5.28 ERA 1.55 WHIP (has nasty stuff and will move to the bullpen when Bailey arrives)

    bullpen:
    long-relief:
    Belisle 2.98 ERA 1.19 WHIP (good stuff, but hopefully he can show it this year)
    MRP:
    Coffey 3.14 ERA 1.17 WHIP (will amaze everyone as the hardest worker on the team)
    Bray 3.97 ERA 1.38 WHIP (still young, still raw, but will impress)
    Majewski 3.47 ERA 1.26 WHIP (will make us happy we have him regardless of "the trade")
    Cormier 5.67 ERA 1.61 WHIP (will show he has no reason to pitch any more)
    set-up:
    Stanton 4.88 ERA 1.5 WHIP (will stay in the set-up role despite bad numbers because Narron is a joke)
    closer:
    Weathers 4.57 ERA 1.34 WHIP (see Stanton)

    bench:
    C Valentin (will swing for the fences on first pitch fastballs)
    IF:
    Castro (will play defense, but don't expect those clutch moments from him again)
    Conine (will be much like Hatteberg, but from the other side)
    outfield:
    Denorfia (will cover nicely for oft injured Griffey and Freel)
    Hamilton (will sit the bench)
    I agree with almost everything you wrote except Brandon Phillips.. I think he was a fluke last year and he will hit about .230

    I hope I'm Wrong, but that is what my gut tells me

  11. #11
    Hall of Famer CincyRedsFan30's Avatar
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    Although more changes might be coming, I boosted Dunn's projections up a good deal, as well as Hamilton's.

    I dropped Milton's numbers significantly.
    The Simpson family gathers around, as Homer places Bart's passed test on the fridge.)

    Homer: We're proud of you, boy.

    Bart: Thanks, Dad. But part of this D-minus belongs to God.

  12. #12
    MVP NFLman2033's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by CincyRedsFan30 View Post
    Although more changes might be coming, I boosted Dunn's projections up a good deal, as well as Hamilton's.

    I dropped Milton's numbers significantly.
    and if spring is any indication(which it is not) I would say I maybe underrating Phillips

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