Faith in Krivsky?

[redsrbetter]

Should we maintain the faith? Or if you never had it, should you try and find it? Is there any reason for us to believe that Krivsky is not done?

I think the answers to these questions are a resounding yes.

I won't use this thread to dream up schemes for Krivsky. Although that is extremely fun to do, I have realized that it is next to impossible to figure out his next move. So in the meantime, between now and the next move, we as fans become anxious. Its the fun part of the offseason. Perhaps it has become so important that it is the one fashion that has kept baseball alive.

But what is Krivsky doing? It looks as if he is retooling the roster and filling holes. But has he filled a hole in a manner that compares to your favor? None of us expected to see Gonzalez with the Reds. None of us even mentioned the thought of Stanton. The only non-surprising move so far was trading LaRue off.

So needless to say, I am underwhelmed. I have not been close to being blown away. Since "the trade" has Krivsky instilled any confidence in any fan? I would say definitely not. If so, the fan that is saying this is extremely optimistic. So the question is, did he create enough surprise moves that worked in the Reds favor in order to give us confidence in his ability to do it again? Or are we just sitting back waiting for the big signing or the big trade that will make or break his career?

The floor is your gentlemen....

And ladies (RHM, CRF)

[bipster]

I am willing to give him a little longer rope. The Arroyo, Phillips and Ross finds were certainly nice last year, and earned him some praise. I am not sure that we can judge "The trade" yet. If you were looking short term, it did certainly fail. But, the biggest reason why it failed was the demise of Majewskis' shoulder and the backward slide of our offense. However, I am willing to look a little past that and into this year to see how Majewskis' shoulder rebounds.....also, I remember Krivsky or one of our broadcaster saying that they were high on Bray turning into a legit starter in the future. If that happens, then we win "The trade". As we all know, it will be much easier to find offensive production to replace Kearns and Felo then to find a potential starting pitcher out of what we had before the trade.

Having said all of that, I am growing more skeptical of Krivskys' moves to date, but I keep going back to the fact that my gut feeling last year is that we wouldn't come close to competing at the level we did...........therefore I will allow him more time.

[McKain]

Bill Bray as a starter? What moron said that? He's never pitcher more than three innings in a game in his minor league and major league and collegiate life, and I'm not even entirely sure he did that.

Bray's best case scenario is a good lefty closer - if he becomes a starter, he's roiding like a mother****er to not kill his arm after 4 innings.

[bipster]

stretching a former closer/reliever into starter innings certainly isn't unheard of. From what I remember, it was said that the Reds were intrigued by the idea simply based on the fact that Bray throws or can throw four quality pitches (2 seam, 4 seam, slider, and changeup)

[McKain]

It normally only happens if they've had a history of being a long reliever (nope), or when the pitcher was in the minor leagues and they decided he'd work better as a starter (nope). I can't name many scenarios where an MLB ready, very good reliever (probably the best in the Reds bullpen) suddenly became a starter.

It'd be a very risky move at this point, and I'm not even sure if the payoff would be worth it for someone like Bray.

[bipster]

While I am not saying that Bray is guaranteed of being a great starting pitcher, or even saying that the Reds will definitely use him as a starter....I just wanted to point out that in College at William & Mary Bray did start on 4 different occassions. In his 68 (from '02-'04) appearances in college he did pitch 148 innings. Very rarely ever going just one innning and a few times going 4 in relief even while being the closer. With metal bats, college pitchers often throw many more pitches per inning than in the pros. I just wanted to point out that it wasn't that long ago that Bray was asked to throw several pitches in a game, there was also a couple of occassions last year that he threw 3 innings in a game. Once again, I am not saying that he will definitely be a starter or that the Reds will have him start....I was simply saying that I remember a broadcaster or Krivsky mention the possibility of moving him to a starter.

Having said all of that, I do agree that it would be a risky move to change him given our experiment with Danny Graves

[McKain]

Weird, you and I have very different numbers for his college stats. I got mine from thebaseballcube.com and they have him at 45 games, 0 starts, 96 IP over two seasons.

Where'd you get yours at? I'm always on the look for more stat sites.

Checking Bray's game log last year, he threw 3 innings once, 2.1 once, and 2.0 six times. If I could find gamelogs for his minor league performances, I'd see what he did there, too, but those don't exist I like Bray and think that he may be able to work out as a starter but it'd be a longshot. He throws four pitches and throws them all well but I'm not sure if he could throw them all well enough after five innings, even if he did do some endurance work to build up his arm into a starter arm. I think having him as a good reliever and the Reds current closer of the future is much better than having him as (probably) nothing more than a competent starter.

[bipster]

Weird, you and I have very different numbers for his college stats. I got mine from thebaseballcube.com and they have him at 45 games, 0 starts, 96 IP over two seasons.

Where'd you get yours at? I'm always on the look for more stat sites.

Checking Bray's game log last year, he threw 3 innings once, 2.1 once, and 2.0 six times. If I could find gamelogs for his minor league performances, I'd see what he did there, too, but those don't exist I like Bray and think that he may be able to work out as a starter but it'd be a longshot. He throws four pitches and throws them all well but I'm not sure if he could throw them all well enough after five innings, even if he did do some endurance work to build up his arm into a starter arm. I think having him as a good reliever and the Reds current closer of the future is much better than having him as (probably) nothing more than a competent starter.

Have I got the site for you, NCAA stats this is a stat generator sponsored by the NCAA, unfortunately the stats are only traceable back to 1998

[McKain]

Jesus **** I am happy with this, hell yes.

[redsrbetter]

Something I am hoping for:

A lot of people are speculating on Hatteberg needing a replacement. I don't deny that he could use a spill against LHP. But frankly, he is the best hitter on the roster right now. EdE may be better, but that is only if he meets his potential as he may have in the second half of last season. Other than that, give me a guy that will put the ball in play more often. I am not talking about pop, I am talking about a guy who would come through in the clutch and get the big hit. The guy who will take a walk to extend the inning. yes, Dunn will take the walk as well, and Dunn can couple the chance at hitting a bomb a lot better than Hatteberg. But give me another player who will get on base and get more hits than Hatteberg next year.

I don't really think we need a platoon at 1B this season. But Krivsky seems to think otherwise:

Krivsky said the team probably would look for a right-handed hitter capable of platooning with Scott Hatteberg at first base.

http://news.cincypost.com/apps/pbcs....611210342/1035

If we got another 1B, it would have to be for a 1 year contract as we all know Votto should be ready by '08. If not, midseason next year. So why waste time looking for this guy. Unless it is Aurilia simply coming back (which I highly doubt) I would spend my time more wisely.

We have to look for a serious impact bat and keep Dunn. The only way to get that bat is through FA without trading Dunn.

Look at the locks by position right now:

C Ross/Valentin - LOCK
1B Hatteberg - LOCK
2B Phillips - LOCK
3B Encarnacion - LOCK
SS Gonzalez - LOCK
LF Dunn - on the trade block
CF Griffey - LOCK
RF Freel/Deno - Not a lock

Looks to me like the only opening is for RF. Which FA are available in RF? Any impact type bats? Sure there are a few, and I think if Krivsky has any money at all (all indications say he does) he should concentrate highly on a RF target. But would we all be ok with Freel not having a place to be a regular starter? Who would bat leadoff? We don't have a leadoff hitter at all without Freel. Couple that inability and the disgust we see when Narron puts together a lineup and what will we see there? WOW!

[McKain]

Hatteberg's career numbers against lefties:
.239 AVG, .332 OBP, .345 SLG
15 HR in 833 ABs
132 Ks

The walks are nice there, but really, he can't make contact and he strikes out a lot, so he absolutely has to have a platoon partner. Aurilia would come cheap but then there's guys like Matt LeCroy who would probably come cheaper (and he could be an absolutely last chance emergency catcher). Other possibilites range from Shea Hillenbrand (though he may cost a bit much) to Kevin Millar to Phil Nevin to Craig Wilson.

As for right fielders left:
Craig Wilson
JD Drew
Jose Guillen
Trot Nixon

Those are the players left I'd expect to be an improvement over the Reds current RF situation. I think Freel will probably end up in right field, though, and they don't sign someone else to play there, and let Denorfia take the 4th OF spot.

[redsrbetter]

Krivsky has mentioned RF as a hole he would like to fill. So, I think he is working on it at least at a minimal pace. But what will come of it if anything?

I like the list you have there. I just hope Krivsky doesn't see something special in a guy like John Mabry or someone like that. JD Drew would be a phenominal pick up as he has the bat and the OBP the team needs. He also can play some defense. But again, who leads off if we were to sign any of those guys?

[McKain]

I think if they sign a full-time RF and Freel maintains the "fill in everywhere he can" status he had the past few years, then I'd guess it'd be Philips leading off.

[redsrbetter]

JD Drew did opt out of the 11 mil/yr deal and is likley asking for 13-5 mil. That sucks!

[NFLman2033]

You know I think it would be nice for us to have Hatteberg, because he was no doubt our best hitter last year.. my concern is that he is about to turn 37 and I find it hard to believe we are going to get another year out of him like we had.. its likely to be worse.. I just wish Joey Votto would come around so we could plug that whole at 1st.. but its not likely to ever happen, we may need to start looking for a permanent solution for 1st base.. I wish Dunn would take the head out of his ass and move to 1st base..