Let the Dunn rumors start

[redsrbetter]

The General Manager of the Cincinatti Reds, Wayne Krivsky, spent 11 years as the Assistant General Manager of the Minnesota Twins. He firmly believes in contact hitting and no strikeouts. The Cincinatti Reds prior to Krivsky’s arrival were deep in power and strikeouts. Wily Mo Pena, Felipe Lopez, and Austin Kearns, hitters who struck out more than 100 times for the Reds in 2005, have already been moved.

Adam Dunn has been linked in trade rumors for several years now, and this year is looking like this is the year he could be moved. Dunn, a first baseman and left fielder, hit .234/.365/.490 this past season for a .855 OPS, and has a career of an .892 OPS. He had two straight seasons of OPS’ over .900 and would have had a third if he did not hit for a .700 OPS in August and .598 in September.

Dunn strikes out a … ton. He K’d a staggering 194 times in 2006, and if the Red Sox acquired him, there’s no doubt that in late August of 2007, I’d be writing an article about how every time he struck out I gouged my eyes out repeatedly.

Nevertheless, his plate disclipine and power (HR total by year: 19, 26, 27, 46, 40, 40) make this an intriguing thought. Dunn, who has played first 108 times in his career (854 games total) could make the adjustment to first should the Red Sox acquire him. I’m not going to delve into who the Red Sox would have to send Cincinatti’s way, but the Red Sox would have to move Mike Lowell - and it’s possible he could be moved to the Los Angeles Angels or San Diego Padres.

Dunn will likely never hit for average (lifetime .245, and has hit as high as .266, so that’s what I’d suggest for his average if he moved to the American League) so we would have to content ourselves with his career Isolated Eye of a staggering .135 (Youkilis is at .104 and Abreu at .110) and his career .512 Slugging Percentage. Dunn’s career stats against righties come out to a .911 OPS, and .852 against lefties, which would afford Kevin Millar some (but not a lot) of playing time.

In addition, Adam Dunn is known as a clubhouse presence. As Lonnie Wheeler muses trading Dunn, he mentions that Dunn is “funniest, most self-effacing fellow in the Cincinnati clubhouse.”

Dunn would make $10.5 million next year, which tips the scales in favor of the Red Sox, for the Sox are a big market team. Trading Mike Lowell would mean the Red Sox only take on $1.5 million extra.

To give some measure of what the Reds may look in return for Dunn, Wheeler poses the questions of who they could get:

What, then, is his trade value? Is it the handsome sum of all the above, or what our eyes and exasperation tell us after six unfulfilling seasons?

Is it a starting pitcher who can stand next to Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo? An end-game reliever who can allow Todd Coffey, Gary Majewski, Bill Bray and Matt Belisle to come along in more comfortable roles? An outfielder with a package more complete? A starting shortstop?

It’s highly likely that if the Reds did call up the Red Sox about Adam Dunn, the price would be too high. In addition, we would certainly have to sacrifice young pitching - such as Craig Hansen, Manny Delcarmen … unless Theo pulls the wool over Krivsky’s eyes. Is it worth it to sacrifice one of these young pitchers to acquire Adam Dunn? Are we so in debt to the need of pitching that we have to automatically dismiss any trade acquisition resulting in the loss of a pitcher? I don’t know.

If Adam Dunn becomes available, the Red Sox should look into it. If Kevin Millar asks Boston to return as a bench player, the Red Sox should seriously consider it.

I am fully aware the Red Sox have problems. They have pitching problems, first and foremost. However, you cannot just concentrate on pitching. When you have a chance to improve somewhere, regardless of what position that is, you explore the opportunities there. In addition, if we traded Mike Lowell, perhaps we get a top pitcher in return (Scott Linebrink from San Diego?) and there’s where we are: Linebrink in the bullpen, Youkilis at third, and Dunn at first.

Let me just leave you with the 3-4-5-6 lineup of 2007 if Adam Dunn was a Red Sox:

DH David Ortiz
LF Manny Ramirez
1B Adam Dunn
RF Wily Mo Pena

Fireworks.

http://www.all-baseball.com/firebran...es/024469.html

[redsrbetter]

So what would you guys want from Boston? I would have to say that Papelbon has to be on that list right?

I just don't want to trade Dunn period. Our offense already has some big holes to fill. But what if we were to get ManRam in a deal for Dunn? Not saying it would be a straight up deal but it would be something to look at.

Dunn vs ManRam as a clubhouse presence is no contest. Dunn is one of the greatest characters in baseball and anyone who has conversated with him would approve that statement. You hear it all the time. And you also hear that Manny is nothing to be proud of. He plays when he wants and sometimes refuses to get it done. At least thats how the media reports it. But don't his teamates like him pretty well? Would he negatively effect the entire chemistry of this team?

On second thought, its an idea but a bad one IMO. And I havent even looked at the salary differential. So throw it out there everyone. Who would be a good fit for the Reds?

[Fishercat]

I can't see anyway Theo gives up Paps for Dunn. Dunn has a market contract now, Papelbon is cheap for the next few years, and it'd be an absurd PR disaster in Boston. I love Dunn, and I think it's worth it, but the Sox need for pitching with Papelbon's popularity? Can't see it.

As for ManRam/Dunn...the Sox would probably do it in a second even with the downgrade in caliber of player. And ManRam is not a cancer, he's a good guy. He has bad quirks, obviously, but the media seems to hate him so much that I can see why.

I figure at least Hansen/Delcarmen and one or two very good prospect, at least.

And maybe it's just me, but I think Theo is too prideful to make a deal for Dunn when he was supposedly (no written proof, but I think Dry said this) 2 mil away from Abreu.

[missionhockey21]

If the writer can't even spell Cincinnati correctly, I think the rumor doesn't have legs. It sounds like pure speculation as a lot of teams are hoping to make this offseason "The Trade II." Besides, him questioning if it was worth giving up just ONE of those guys made me literally laugh out loud.

[Rufio181]

Send him to the Padres.

[Bob Sacamento]

I'm going to throw the Cubs name out there, they are looking for a power bat and to add along with OBP. Additionally they're wanting to make a big splash. They also have a surplus of young MLB ready arms (Hill, Mateo, Marshall, Guzman, Ryu) plus a few positional youngsters in SS/2B Ronny Cedeno, 3B/1B/LF Scott Moore, CF Felix Pie, and LF Matt Murton. As for MLBers that we have on the trade block, it's only former Gold Glove SS Caesar Izturis.

[catman]

With Piniella coming to town, the Cubs are likely to do something positive and this would be a positive move. I would say a package of Murton or Pie and a pitcher from that list would be enough to get the deal made, even with a division rival. The Reds need pitching, especially young pitching, and the Cubs have some available, for the right deal.

[Slyder]

With Piniella coming to town, the Cubs are likely to do something positive and this would be a positive move. I would say a package of Murton or Pie and a pitcher from that list would be enough to get the deal made, even with a division rival. The Reds need pitching, especially young pitching, and the Cubs have some available, for the right deal.

When the Cubs have 1 Great SP, power at 1b, and a 3b that has rumors of leaving town ASAP? We've got more young pitching at this point than the Cubs. They aren't going to trade what they have off for Dunn. Their only chance to compete is if Wood and Prior can come back and make 60 starts, they havent even combined for 40 in a year let alone 60. Their only other option is they become the Red Sox and spend about 40 mil in FA this year.

[Bob Sacamento]

When the Cubs have 1 Great SP, power at 1b, and a 3b that has rumors of leaving town ASAP? We've got more young pitching at this point than the Cubs. They aren't going to trade what they have off for Dunn.

No, the Reds don't have more depth at young pitching, not do they have the quality of prospects. Even after Hill, Marshall, Mateo, Guzman, Marmol, Ryu, etc that got time in the MLB this year, the Cubs still have highly touted prospects in Veal and Gallagher that are about a year out from competing.

Their only chance to compete is if Wood and Prior can come back and make 60 starts, they havent even combined for 40 in a year let alone 60. Their only other option is they become the Red Sox and spend about 40 mil in FA this year.

Wood's in the bullpen now, he doesn't plan to start for a year or so (Smoltz model). Even still, if Prior and Zambrano combine for 55+ starts they'll be fine, especially with a decent #3 they'll bring in this offseason and youngsters to finish 4/5 slot.

[General]

Yeah, sly, comparing the Reds' farm system to the Cubs is slightly short of stupid.

[Slyder]

Yeah, sly, comparing the Reds' farm system to the Cubs is slightly short of stupid.

I wasnt talking about at the minor leagues. Im talking at the MAJOR LEAGUE level. The Cubs aren't going to help the Reds out.

[General]

The Cubs have better ML-ready young players than the Reds.

[mntwinsfan]

I would like to see the Reds help the Twins out. Trade Dunn to us. Dunn would hit 20 - 25 homeruns in the Metrodome. He is the piece we need to go all the way. Pitching will be great on 07!

[redsrbetter]

Is it possible, in this day and age, for a player like Adam Dunn to be undervalued? I think so. As Lonnie Wheeler informs us, it's "not working" with the big guy. Dunn turns 27 in November. He'll make $10.5MM in 2007 and has a $13MM club option for '08.
So what exactly isn't working with Dunn? He's hit 126 home runs over the past three seasons. Only David Ortiz and Albert Pujols have more. Dunn also has a .380 OBP over the last three seasons. Better than Carlos Delgado, David Wright, Mark Teixeira, Miguel Tejada, Carlos Beltran, Aramis Ramirez, or Andruw Jones.
The problems, of course, are the strikeouts and low batting averages. Sportswriters just can't take this. You just can't convince some people that a guy who hits .240 and whiffs 190 times is a premiere player.
Dunn slipped all the way to .229/.360/.416 after the All-Star break, and that certainly contributed to the Reds' demise. But I don't think 250 ABs should erase Dunn's previous body of work. He's pretty close to a lock for 40 HRs and a .370 OBP. You better believe that's worth $10 mil. Baseball Prospectus says Dunn is worth about $53MM for 2007-10.
I wouldn't be surprised to see some smart team fleece Wayne Krivsky for Dunn. You'll notice I said smart,which probably rules out the Cubs. That's a shame - would Bob Howry and Scott Eyre get it done? One could envision the Blue Jays, Red Sox, White Sox, A's, Rangers, Brewers, or Diamondbacks acquiring Dunn this winter.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

[Fishercat]

I'm not going to rule anything out after the Kearns/Lopez for some beans earlier in the season.