12 games left? Let's tank.

[missionhockey21]

Seriously, we've been playing awful and we've killed our post season dreams (and likely our dreams of .500).... let's do something we know how to do well, lose. At 73-77, there are a few teams we could catch up in the race to get a nifty pick: Atlanta (73-77), Houston (72-77), Arizona (71-78), Seattle (71-79), Cleveland (69-79), Colorado (69-80). None of these teams have been particulary hot as of late (which is a shame), and one of the teams the farthest out of our reach reasonably in Cleveland has been 3-7 over the past 10. But assuming we passed at least a few of those teams and kept our distance from teams like San Fran and Florida, we could be in position for a top 10 pick or higher. I'd rather add another arm to the system than to play for what little bit of pride this team has left (really, am I the only one who gets tired of the complete September collapse that seems to happen more years than it doesn't... especially after it follows our scorching start in April.)

[McKain]

Dunn - .128/.317/.255 (after a .188/.284/.416 August)
Philips - .137/.200/.235
Hatteberg - .179/.304/.231
EdE - .245/.316/.306

Awful September. Really just a disappointing way to close-out the year.

[CincyRedsFan30]

Our starting pitching is still our biggest issue overall, but our offense has been miserable since the end of August really and especially this month.

I'm beyond tired of our September collapses too, mission.

I can't wait for Castellini's excuses on why he won't add top of the line FA's.

Krivsky had a lot of work to do in the offseason.

The first order of business should be to FIRE Narron, but of course that won't happen. Since it won't, it is imperative that he doesn't pickup anymore Ryan Franklin/Royce Clayton type players, because we know Narron will count on them to be his go-to guys due to their veteran presence.

[missionhockey21]

No doubt about that McKain. Outside of Aurilia and Arroyo (a few others, but those guys were no-doubters on their performance), it's been a simultaneous choke job essentially.

And CRF, I am really not calling the ambulance on the offense as of yet (trade Dunn and fail to add another plus bat, and then we'll talk... and probably cry), but the pitching has just been attrocious. It's a shame too because who knows if Arroyo can have this kind of success for a second straight year. I really do not know what Narron was thinking considering we over compensated for the pen (maybe not in quality, but in quanity) while failing to address the rotation, oh wait, we got Kim.

Narron won't be fired. This ownership and the city has a lover affair with him and his lingo. Old school and Cincy goes together as well as all the toppings on a cheese coney at Skyline. I am praying I am wrong, but I am seeing an attrocious deal for Dunn in the offseason, medicore pitching pickups and a solid, but 35+ bat. It will probably be better than that, but I am still scared based on how little we added in the grand scope of all things considered with our pre-Trade Deadline moves.

I'd like Chick, Germano and Ward back too.

[CincyRedsFan30]

Arroyo doesn't come from our recent culture of losing, so I'm not surprised to see him do well. He appears to be a clutch performer. I wish Harang could mirror him.

There is something about the players this team has added in recent years. They simply seem to choke when it matters most. Sure some of that might be a lack of talent catching up to them, but it seems there is something more to me. The Cards' players seem to pick up their performance as we head down the stretch, while our players drop to the ocean floor as fast as a 1,000 pound anchor.

And I agree about the offense, but we definitely need a BIG impact bat added in the offseason and another pretty good bat if possible At the very least we need someone like a Tejada or someone at least close to his caliber.

Aside from the typical issues, that is another one that is incredibly baffling about Narron. Since we made all the trades to supposedly improve and add a lot of depth to our pen, Narron has CONTINUED to leave starters in for 115 or more pitches OFTEN. It is as though we have no one in the pen available EVER and when we do it has been Franklin or Cormier first in the key situations. It simply makes no sense at all. He has even continued that trend with the starters since the rosters expanded and we now have about 30 pitchers in the pen(exaggeration obviously, but just to make a point).

And I would defintely like Germano back. That deal is looking like a total disaster right now.

We MUST add that bat and a couple of GOOD starters at the very least or at least one GREAT one. Also when adding those bats, we should look at the defensive skills of those players. We need defense. Griffey has to be moved to a corner outfield spot whether he likes it or not, Freel has to go to CF, Edwin has to work to get better at 3B but play there from the BEGINNING of the year, Phillips needs to shift to SS and we need a good defensive 2B.

There is a lot of work to be done. Hopefully Krivsky is already thinking ahead and Castellini is starting into his wallet and planning how much he needs to keep stored away for us to spend.

[missionhockey21]

I don't know if it's Harang isn't clutch or if he's just worn out. Because we know that over his career, he has been a pitcher who could have much worse stats if he didn't have the ability to escape big trouble. So if he can buckle down in a game time situation, you would expect he could do it for a game. I am not discounting the possibility that he chokes with the season on the line, just that Narron has used him an awful lot and endurance as of late has been trouble towards the end... so who knows.

I'd love to add a bat of that caliber (if we could sign it that is, I don't want to lose talent from our system, even more than we have), but the question is where? We're stuck with Griffey. We'd be stupid to trade Dunn (considering his potential and what the return would be, not to mention his impact.) Phillips is young and has a promising future ahead of himself. Ed E, no explanation neccessary. Hatteberg is signed through next year, and obviously has proved his worth. I hate to say it (not because I dislike him, just that I've been proven wrong), but Aurilia has too, so he is likely to have SS/2B locked up. Ross is the same as Phillips. Freel is needed in RF for his leadoff skills and defense. So I guess, do we try to move Griffey/Aurilia/Hatteberg or make a mistake like trying to move Dunn? Personally, as I think Griffey is stuck with us, I think we need to look into moving Hatteberg. I love what he brings to the table and it's a shame he doesn't have the position versatility like Aurilia, but moving him would allow us to move Dunn to 1B, Griffey to corner OF, and hopefully sign/trade a CF with big range and a plus bat. Obviously we could upgrade over several of our players, but I don't know how likely that is outside of Freel (in which we may go back on the same old song and dance of super utility.)

Narron's handling of the starters scares me when you consider how close Bailey is. And the use of Franklin is baffling. Why does he refuse to not consider him a mop-up option after continued failure and awful stats both here and in Philly (just look at that K/BB.) But the pen management went to hell when Guardado went down. So that begs the question, do we need to pursue a bat more or a capable closer (recall the cost of guys like Wagner and Ryan)?

I agree that Phillips needs to be moved to SS with his arm and athleticism, but can you really see anyone but Aurilia being his DP partner? Assuming Griffey is unmoveable, it will have to be either him or Hatteberg gone or on the bench, and it looks likely that it will be neither. The stats are solid, he was the only clutch hitter we have had recently and the management has a love affair with him. Freel is likely to go back to the bench despite being our only capable defensive outfielder, at least that's what I am fearing.

[Slyder]

I don't know if it's Harang isn't clutch or if he's just worn out. Because we know that over his career, he has been a pitcher who could have much worse stats if he didn't have the ability to escape big trouble. So if he can buckle down in a game time situation, you would expect he could do it for a game. I am not discounting the possibility that he chokes with the season on the line, just that Narron has used him an awful lot and endurance as of late has been trouble towards the end... so who knows.

I'd love to add a bat of that caliber (if we could sign it that is, I don't want to lose talent from our system, even more than we have), but the question is where? We're stuck with Griffey. We'd be stupid to trade Dunn (considering his potential and what the return would be, not to mention his impact.) Phillips is young and has a promising future ahead of himself. Ed E, no explanation neccessary. Hatteberg is signed through next year, and obviously has proved his worth. I hate to say it (not because I dislike him, just that I've been proven wrong), but Aurilia has too, so he is likely to have SS/2B locked up. Ross is the same as Phillips. Freel is needed in RF for his leadoff skills and defense. So I guess, do we try to move Griffey/Aurilia/Hatteberg or make a mistake like trying to move Dunn? Personally, as I think Griffey is stuck with us, I think we need to look into moving Hatteberg. I love what he brings to the table and it's a shame he doesn't have the position versatility like Aurilia, but moving him would allow us to move Dunn to 1B, Griffey to corner OF, and hopefully sign/trade a CF with big range and a plus bat. Obviously we could upgrade over several of our players, but I don't know how likely that is outside of Freel (in which we may go back on the same old song and dance of super utility.)

Narron's handling of the starters scares me when you consider how close Bailey is. And the use of Franklin is baffling. Why does he refuse to not consider him a mop-up option after continued failure and awful stats both here and in Philly (just look at that K/BB.) But the pen management went to hell when Guardado went down. So that begs the question, do we need to pursue a bat more or a capable closer (recall the cost of guys like Wagner and Ryan)?

I agree that Phillips needs to be moved to SS with his arm and athleticism, but can you really see anyone but Aurilia being his DP partner? Assuming Griffey is unmoveable, it will have to be either him or Hatteberg gone or on the bench, and it looks likely that it will be neither. The stats are solid, he was the only clutch hitter we have had recently and the management has a love affair with him. Freel is likely to go back to the bench despite being our only capable defensive outfielder, at least that's what I am fearing.

My thoughts on this offseason are....

1) THIS IS A MUST #1 pitcher- Harang and Arroyo could round out as one of the best #2 and #3 combinations in MLB right now, but neither has the real ability to be a legitimate #1, yes they have shown glimpses but I feel they would be best used in the 2 and 3 roles. Eitehr by creative trade or by FA.

2) Find another back of the rotation guy. Give Milton his walking papers and get it over with. You can find much better options elsewhere.

3) Move Phillips to SS and tell Clayton We want you out of town YESTERDAY. Give Olemado 2b look or Freel to 2b and Deno in RF.

4) Find a couple YOUNG MR to try rebolster that pen.

5) Depth in the OF. You might be thinking "Are you nuts" but beyond Freel (who would be at 2b for me) and Dunn who is there that we can count on for 130+ games or know what we can expect?

Being a results oriented person like Woody Page I am looking at free agents coming into the year and found the following....
Looking at http://www.redsinsite.com/playerinfo....php?year=2007 it that is correct... Hammond's contract is off the books since he got released.
1) Buyout Paul Wilson's contract (savings $4.35 mil)

2) Rework with Aurilia or let him walk (savings $1.25- 2 mil)
Anyone know what Milton's buyout is? The site lists it as a player option.

3) Sign Jason Schmidt to a 2 yr deal with 2 mutual option years so if Schmidt gets old we are not tied under for too much money and he can have certainty. He's past his arm problems on pace to reach 200 IP again (needs like 5 IP). Career 1.10 GB/FB ratio, has playoff experience and pitching in a pennant race. I would probably assume he is probably going to get in the range of 2 yrs/$22-26 mil.
Zito and Buehrle scare me. Id rather go older with Schmidt than the guys whos Whips are higher.

4) Resign Juan Castro. Yes theres probably younger guys with great gloves but he knows the team he knows the clubhouse and has hit .270 in cincy so you certainly could do worse with guys off the bench. No I wouldnt have him start :P. Probably anywhere 500k-1 mil.

5) Contact Jose Guillen. We all see this offense needs a bit of tweaking. This offseason Guillen is going to be the forgotten man with Sheffield, Soriano, Schmidt, among others sucking up a lot of the interest. Let him know ahead of time he would have to earn a spot but I think he being 30 would be a very good risk to take. If he would take a 2-3 yr deal low first year (2-3 milish) with escalators based on performance I think we would be in great shape with him as the backup CF and competing with RF. Plus this would upgrade the defense if he is in there.

6) Lots of the guys we got in trades are FAs at the end of the year. Scott Schoenweis has an era of .77 in 12 app for us. If he would sign for cheap keep him in the NL and see if a change of leagues is what he needed to at least be servicable.

7) If ready send Elizardo to fall ball and see which Ramirez is the real Ramirez.

8) Rest of the possible FA.... Good Bye.

9) If Aurilia is not retained what about Travis Lee? Great Glove, some pop... one problem Scott BorASS.

10) Bring in Ted Lilly for the back of the rotation attempt. probably a bit pricey but still not as much as Milton would cost for a LHP in the rotation. 2-4 mil tops. After a very bad 04 hes been at least decent this year. 1.8 K/BB ratio, gb/fb ratio is not that great but theres not many better options for "cheap" LHP. Maybe see what/if Cory Lidle would come back and eat innings for us at the back of the rotation.

My Lineup:
1 Ryan Freel 2b
2 Adam Dunn LF/Brandon Phillips ss
3 Jose Guillen RF-CF/Edwin Encarncion 3b
4 Edwin Encarcion 3b/Adam Dunn LF
5 Ken Griffey CF/Jose Guillen CF
6 David Ross C
7 Scott Hatteberg 1b/ Chris Denorfia RF/Brandon Phillips SS
8 Brandon Phillips SS/ Travis Lee 1b

Most Likely Scenario (based on what I say)
1 Freel 2b
2 Dunn LF
3 Griffey CF
4 Encarncion 3b
5 Hatteberg 1b/Ross C
6 Phillips SS
7 Denorfia RF
8 Ross C/Lee 1b

Rotation:
1 Schmidt- Use to having the mantle of ace and deserves it.
2 Harang/Arroyo- Either way you can usually expect good starts
3 Arroyo/Harang
4 Lilly/Lidle/some other vet
5 Ramirez/Bailey (depending on news from fall ball/ST)/Michalak/Dumatrait/vet

Still not solid 1-5 but improved from the top down from what started the year in the rotation for us this year.

[CincyRedsFan30]

I don't know if it's Harang isn't clutch or if he's just worn out. Because we know that over his career, he has been a pitcher who could have much worse stats if he didn't have the ability to escape big trouble. So if he can buckle down in a game time situation, you would expect he could do it for a game. I am not discounting the possibility that he chokes with the season on the line, just that Narron has used him an awful lot and endurance as of late has been trouble towards the end... so who knows.

I'd love to add a bat of that caliber (if we could sign it that is, I don't want to lose talent from our system, even more than we have), but the question is where? We're stuck with Griffey. We'd be stupid to trade Dunn (considering his potential and what the return would be, not to mention his impact.) Phillips is young and has a promising future ahead of himself. Ed E, no explanation neccessary. Hatteberg is signed through next year, and obviously has proved his worth. I hate to say it (not because I dislike him, just that I've been proven wrong), but Aurilia has too, so he is likely to have SS/2B locked up. Ross is the same as Phillips. Freel is needed in RF for his leadoff skills and defense. So I guess, do we try to move Griffey/Aurilia/Hatteberg or make a mistake like trying to move Dunn? Personally, as I think Griffey is stuck with us, I think we need to look into moving Hatteberg. I love what he brings to the table and it's a shame he doesn't have the position versatility like Aurilia, but moving him would allow us to move Dunn to 1B, Griffey to corner OF, and hopefully sign/trade a CF with big range and a plus bat. Obviously we could upgrade over several of our players, but I don't know how likely that is outside of Freel (in which we may go back on the same old song and dance of super utility.)

Narron's handling of the starters scares me when you consider how close Bailey is. And the use of Franklin is baffling. Why does he refuse to not consider him a mop-up option after continued failure and awful stats both here and in Philly (just look at that K/BB.) But the pen management went to hell when Guardado went down. So that begs the question, do we need to pursue a bat more or a capable closer (recall the cost of guys like Wagner and Ryan)?

I agree that Phillips needs to be moved to SS with his arm and athleticism, but can you really see anyone but Aurilia being his DP partner? Assuming Griffey is unmoveable, it will have to be either him or Hatteberg gone or on the bench, and it looks likely that it will be neither. The stats are solid, he was the only clutch hitter we have had recently and the management has a love affair with him. Freel is likely to go back to the bench despite being our only capable defensive outfielder, at least that's what I am fearing.

I think he(Harang) is worn out to a degree, but I also think he isn't or certainly hasn't learned how to step up his game when it matters most. He was at about 57 pitches last time when he choked quickly. That was pathetic.

I agree about moving Hatteberg too. I like him, but he might net his best return possible after this season and we don't have room for both he and Aurilia if we actually sign someone else to play 2B. Of course as you say, Freel will probably be a super sub again(ugh) and Aurilia will be at 2B, while we get slow Griffey back in CF(ugh again). I think we definitely need a bad more than a closer, especially since we know how overrated that title is.

I hope for the best but fear the worst with the franchise.

[CincyRedsFan30]

Any rotation with Chris Michalak in it needs some help. He needs to not be in it next year under any circumstance. He is awful.

[CincyRedsFan30]

Harang is well on his way to another awful start tonight, BTW. Phillips also left the game after being hit in the face by a ball.

Meanwhile, we are getting fooled by Albers now...although Denorfia just hit a HR.

[CincyRedsFan30]

Ugh.

Welsh just said on FSN that it appears Narron likes Norris Hopper more than Denorfia. That probably means he will be our fourth outfielder next year and will start very often(probably leading off or batting in the two-hole).

[CincyRedsFan30]

BREAKING NEWS: The Reds have scored 5 Runs. Yes, you heard that right. The REDS have scored 5 Runs in a game. More on this story at 11 p.m.

[CincyRedsFan30]

Why does Harang give up HR to hitters like Everett? Geez.

[missionhockey21]

1.) I agree, but does the ownership really have the cash to sign a #1, or would a #1 even want to come here unless we overpaid like crazy?

2.) I REALLY doubt Milton is walking. At best, he would be used in the pen, but with the cash invested in his player option, I would be shocked to not seeing him starting.

3.) Are you really sold on Olmedo's bat? I don't think I am and I don't know how much the team likes Freel as a starting 2B.

4.) Sadly I think we blew our chance with that by trading for Bray and the overall pile of junk that came with him.

5.) I am personally not crazy about Deno outside of the 4th OF'er, so I agree some depth is needed there, a starting caliber player.

1.) Yep.

2.) Let Aurilia walk, why? .880 OPS and 4 position versatility, I am not his biggest fan but at his affordable contract, I don't think we could find a better infield bench/starting option.

3.) I'd love to pursue Schmidt as I think it's a bit more realistic than Zito (well, a lot more), I just don't know if he would come that cheap in terms of years signed. With his stuff and history, I have to imagine him holding out for a fat contract. But him, Harang and Bailey could give the Reds a lethal strikeout trio.

4.) I wouldn't sign Castro at 1 mil, but .500-.750 I would.

5.) I like the idea of Guillen. Obviously he thrived in Cincy and this ballpark, and he's young enough to be considered apart of the future past a season or two. And he very well could be a discount given his attitude problems and low profile name. Nice idea.

6.) Yep.

7.) I think The Lizard is a better version of his bad self (meaning still not that good.) But who knows.

8.)

9.) Honestly, I would rather keep Aurilia.

10.) After a shaky season, he seems to have bounced back with strong K/9 numbers, a lower WHIP and less hittable. I've always digged him and as a 5th starter, I wouldn't mind him at a low cost. He's always been a pitcher I perceived who was usually a bit better than his numbers indicated.

[missionhockey21]

I think he(Harang) is worn out to a degree, but I also think he isn't or certainly hasn't learned how to step up his game when it matters most. He was at about 57 pitches last time when he choked quickly. That was pathetic.

I agree about moving Hatteberg too. I like him, but he might net his best return possible after this season and we don't have room for both he and Aurilia if we actually sign someone else to play 2B. Of course as you say, Freel will probably be a super sub again(ugh) and Aurilia will be at 2B, while we get slow Griffey back in CF(ugh again). I think we definitely need a bad more than a closer, especially since we know how overrated that title is.

I hope for the best but fear the worst with the franchise.

I really don't know what to make of Harang at this point. He could possibly just be inconsistent (remember that dominating May or so he had last year and then went into a mini collapse at some point, only to bounce back.) He could be non-clutch, I just don't know.

As for a closer, I agree the title is overrated, but it seems to give Narron some stability in managing the pen when he knows who is coming at the 9th when confidence in their ability. (This will be us for the next few years, trying to cater to a moron.)

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