Who's Afraid of the Big Bad Reds Outfield?: A Long-Term Look

[Saber]

I know everyone here loves that Cincinnati has 4 fine outfielders, 3 of whom seem to have the potential to be perennial All-Stars, and the fourth wrapping up a sure Hall-of-Fame career. But are they really all that good? What does the future hold for Wily Mo, Adam, Austin, and Ken? Now, we can wishcast all we want on these guys (like saying that Griffey will be healthy or that Dunn will stop striking out), but that's pointless. Let's be honest with ourselves, and see each of these individual players for who they are:

Wily Mo Pena: Pena is what he has always been, a low-average, moderate-walk power outlet who whiffs a lot. A player like Pena is essentially all-or-nothing, meaning that his batting average can vary wildly, as we've seen in 2003 and 2004. This means his value will also be highly inconsistent, since he can have a year where he hits .330 and wins the MVP, or hits .230 and is totally useless. The thing is, players of his type can take big leaps forward in no time, or can fall apart just as quickly. While his upside is Dale Murphy, his downside is Pete Incaviglia.

Austin Kearns: Kearns has already shown what he can do at the highest level, excelling at all facets of the game. But health is an ability, and Kearns may or may not have it. Hobbled the last two years, his production has steadily declined from his great rookie campaign. He still has plenty of time to shake it all off, but he actually has to do it for me to believe it. If healthy, it's clear that Kearns can be the .300/.400/.500 rock of the outfield. Yes, the third-base experiment was stupid from the beginning.

Adam Dunn: The current rock of the outfield. For a man his size, he's surprisingly athletic and should not be moved to first for any reason beyond injury. Strikes out an huge amount, but also walks a huge amount, and hits the living hell out of the ball when he makes contact. I can live with that. The key with Dunn is his athleticism. In good shape, think Jim Thome in the outfield. If he gets lazy or injured, think Jeremy Giambi in the outfield. His defense sucks. Oh well.

Ken Griffey Jr.: Looking at his batting average, I'd say he might be slowing down, but he never gets enough time in the field to make that opinion a sure one. He still has his ability to draw walks and hit for power, so his bat should still carry him when he does play. We all need to accept that his hamstrings are scar tissue now, and the damage cannot be repaired. Griffey's lackadaisical approach to stretching has not helped. He simply cannot hold up under a full season. The cliff is coming fast, so enjoy him while you can.

That's my say, and I'm too drunk to think anything different.

[ghettochild]

good read

[redsrbetter]

Not bad saber. I will reaspond to all of this later.

[Slyder]

Since you Took the time to type up I'll take each point individually.

That's my say, and I'm too drunk to think anything different.

That was your first mistake, never mix posting baseball and drinking.

But are they really all that good? What does the future hold for Wily Mo, Adam, Austin, and Ken? Now, we can wishcast all we want on these guys (like saying that Griffey will be healthy or that Dunn will stop striking out), but that's pointless. Let's be honest with ourselves, and see each of these individual players for who they are:

Wily Mo Pena: Pena is what he has always been, a low-average, moderate-walk power outlet who whiffs a lot. A player like Pena is essentially all-or-nothing, meaning that his batting average can vary wildly, as we've seen in 2003 and 2004. This means his value will also be highly inconsistent, since he can have a year where he hits .330 and wins the MVP, or hits .230 and is totally useless. The thing is, players of his type can take big leaps forward in no time, or can fall apart just as quickly. While his upside is Dale Murphy, his downside is Pete Incaviglia. .

He is what 23 years old now and had a chance at everyday at bats for a year and a half and your already labeling him Pete Incaviglia? If he were 27-28 and had an up and down career, the description would fit. But before last year he usually just got stuck on the bench cause of his Major League Contract while most in his shoes would be getting ABs in the minors. Man I would hate to see what you think of the majority of prospects then.

Austin Kearns: Kearns has already shown what he can do at the highest level, excelling at all facets of the game. But health is an ability, and Kearns may or may not have it. Hobbled the last two years, his production has steadily declined from his great rookie campaign. He still has plenty of time to shake it all off, but he actually has to do it for me to believe it. If healthy, it's clear that Kearns can be the .300/.400/.500 rock of the outfield. Yes, the third-base experiment was stupid from the beginning.

You ever look and see what he was doing when he was getting hurt? Hes gotten beaned, bad decision by team docs (thumb last year), hurt while trying to score another time. So its not like hes been out walking and just pulls a hammy, hes just had some bad luck. He should be a very valuable OF in the future, just needs some at bats and his luck to straighten out. It never hurts to try something during the offseason, if it worked the Reds and him would have looked great. It didnt and they scrapped it and brought in Randa.

Adam Dunn: The current rock of the outfield. For a man his size, he's surprisingly athletic and should not be moved to first for any reason beyond injury. Strikes out an huge amount, but also walks a huge amount, and hits the living hell out of the ball when he makes contact. I can live with that. The key with Dunn is his athleticism. In good shape, think Jim Thome in the outfield. If he gets lazy or injured, think Jeremy Giambi in the outfield. His defense sucks. Oh well.

If we didnt have the Mayor at 1b I would want him there for the reason of his athleticism. His athleticism would allow him to be a very big target, with practice could be very good digging out throws, and make quick plays on hits right at him there at the base. But again thats if we didnt have Casey. With Casey Dunn is better in the OF, but I'd have him workign so that on days Casey needs a day off you can play Dunn at 1b and then put Freel, Kearns, or Wily in the OF on a given day instead of Jacob Cruz or Valentin.

Ken Griffey Jr.: Looking at his batting average, I'd say he might be slowing down, but he never gets enough time in the field to make that opinion a sure one. He still has his ability to draw walks and hit for power, so his bat should still carry him when he does play. We all need to accept that his hamstrings are scar tissue now, and the damage cannot be repaired. Griffey's lackadaisical approach to stretching has not helped. He simply cannot hold up under a full season. The cliff is coming fast, so enjoy him while you can.

Hes getting older and even Barry Bonds is finding out what happens when you get older. He wont hit the 40-50 HRs like when he was younger, but he corrects his swing he can still produce.

[Saber]

Uh, did you actually disagree with me anywhere? I specifically said that the potential downside of Pena is Pete Incaviglia, not that Incaviglia is what he is going to become.

[Slyder]

Uh, did you actually disagree with me anywhere? I specifically said that the potential downside of Pena is Pete Incaviglia, not that Incaviglia is what he is going to become.

I misread what you said about Wily Mo, not really just thought you didnt notice a couple things on Kearns' injuries and stuff of that nature.

[redsrbetter]

Well, once again this was a good read.

In long term thoughts I have to try and decide who will be here in Cincinnati for the long term. I believe that it will be Dunn, Griffey, Kearns left to right and Pena will get traded. One reason to trade Pena instead of Kearns or Dunn is that he can potentially beat out Dunn's strike out record if he is not careful. So having this team with another guy thats strikes out a lot could be a mistake. Not to say that all four of the outfielders partake in their own share of wind hating. But Pena just seems like he misses badly sometimes.

Now, I said that I would take Dunn and Kearns over Pena. But I would not do the same for my all time favorite player. Griffey still can be a great talent to a ball club, but he has surpassed his ceiling, whereas the other three have not. But, of course, Griffey cannot and will not want to be traded anywhere for anyone. So we are stuck and I have accepted it. Once his contract is over, we will have a Rob Stratton or a BJ Syzmanaski ready to be apart of this "American Outfield."

Stratton had been ready to take a spot on the bench for the Reds, but he got hurt and is likely out for quite a while. But do not do any less than expect him in a Reds uniform next April. BJ, on the other hand, should be climbing the ladder in the minor leagues. Hopefully the organization is smart and they bring him up slowly. Let him develop at every level and while we await his arrival, Griffey will be wearing down his contract. And, once again, Stratton will be on the bench for a Griffey injury every year.

POTENTIALS

Pena= Sosa
Kearns= Larry Walker
Dunn= McGwire
Griffey= wishfully Griffey Junior

[NFLman2033]

I don't think Pena K's as much as Dunn, the only time Pena looks over matched is when he is pinch hitting, You can look it up, if you subtract WMP's Pinch hit AB's he is striking out far less per AB than Dunn... WMP can not pinch hit, he has to be in the lineup everyday and in the groove in order to be effective. which as much as i wouldn't want to see him go, i would rather see him be traded then sit the bench here.

I have to say that this is what i would see in potential for the guys

Pena = McGwire(everyone says Pena hits the ball as far as Big Mac did, his avg would be about the same) Big Mac walked more, but that was later in his career, Pena has time to devope more patience, and with how dangerous he is, he could draw more IBB

Kearns = Paul O'neil (fantastic fielder, Paul had the better arm, but with the bat they would seem to be identical other then Kearns being Right Handed)

Dunn = Reggie Jackson(the man hit over 500 HR's and also set the ML record for K's in a Career) but Dunn Walks More

Griffey = lol what potential, he is past his prime, at this point in his career i would say he would probably be Steve Finley(without the speed) if he stays healthy

[Saber]

Potential is cute. If Pena stops striking out, gains a ton of power, and learns to draw a lot of walks, he could be Barry Bonds for 20 years! I deal in reality, and my assessments are based on what these players have actually done in their careers. I'm not going to say that Adam Dunn is better than Reggie Jackson until he is.

[NFLman2033]

Potential is cute. If Pena stops striking out, gains a ton of power, and learns to draw a lot of walks, he could be Barry Bonds for 20 years! I deal in reality, and my assessments are based on what these players have actually done in their careers. I'm not going to say that Adam Dunn is better than Reggie Jackson until he is.

you just contradicted your first post, you were takling about pena being either dale murphy or pete incaviglia, that is taking about potential right there, adam dunn either jim thome or jeremy giambi, so as funny as you think you were about taking about us talking about potential, it was the road you chose to go down from the start

[Saber]

Yes, I wrote of both realisitic upside and downside. You wishcasted.

[NFLman2033]

ummm.. both are potential, and yes, they have the potential to be what i said, if you don't think so then you didn't see any of those players play, you don't just come into the league and do that, look up all statistics on all the great HOF's nobody just comes in and hits 40HRs and 100 RBI, except albert pulojs who is a freak, guys like Guys like Willie Mays, Mickey Mantle, Reggie Jackson, Mark McGwire.. all of them when they first come up have difficulties hitting, and after a season or two they mature into what you know them as.. which is why my feelings about kearns living up to his potential aren't as high as my expectations for Pena, because Kearns has been at it longer and given more chances.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/j/jacksre01.shtml

here good website so you can do some studying, looking at those numbers, i would say Adam Dunn may already be as good as Reggie Jackson, at least comparing their nubmers through their first few seasons.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/d/dunnad01.shtml