A Look at the Cubs 2007 Draft

[Bob Sacamento]

By Bob Sacamento
Cubshub.com

Next year's amateur draft is looking like the deepest since the 2001 draft that produced such first round talents such as Joe Mauer, Mark Prior, Mark Teixera, Gavin Floyd, Chris Burke, Aaron Heilman, Bobby Crosby, Jeremy Bonderman, Noah Lowry, and David Wright. And with the Cubs having the third overall pick, they are in line for an impact prospect. No matter what the Cubs do via free agency their pick is protected (top 15 picks are protected), just like it was last year when they selected lefty starting pitcher Mark Pawalek out of High School in Utah with the 13th overall pick. Here's what the draft order is looking like right now (subject to change due to free agent signings):

2007 Draft Order

1. Tampa Bay Devil Rays
2. Kansas City Royals
3. Chicago Cubs
4. Pittsburgh Pirates
5. Baltimore Orioles
6. Washington Nationals
7. Milwaukee Brewers
8. Colorado Rockies
9. San Fransisco Giants
10. Arizona Diamondbacks
11. Seattle Mariners
12. Florida Marlins
13. Cleveland Indians
14. Atlanta Braves
15. Cincinnati Reds
16. Texas Rangers
17. Houston Astros
18. St. Louis Cardinals
19. Philadelphia Phillies
20. Boston Red Sox
21. Toronto Blue Jays
22. Los Angeles Dodgers
23. San Diego Padres
24. Los Angeles Angels
25. Chicago White Sox
26. Oakland Athletics
27. Deroit Tigers
28. Minnesota Twins
29. New York Mets
30. New York Yankees

Unfortunately for the Cubs, they have a poor history of taking players with their top five picks that don't pan out. Here's what our history looks like:

Cubs Overall Top 5 Draft History

#1 overall pick
1982--Shawon Dunston (SS)

#2 overall pick
1967--Terry Hughes (SS)
1981--Joe Carter (OF)
2001--Mark Prior (RHP)

#3 overall pick
1984--Drew Hall (LHP)
1998--Corey Patterson (OF)
2000--Luis Montanez (IF)

#4 overall pick
1975--Brian Rosinski (OF)
1987--Mike Harkey (RHP)
1995--Kerry Wood (RHP)

#5 overall pick
1966--Dean Burk (RHP)



Up until recently, the two most hyped players going into the 2007 draft were Vanderbilt lefty David Price and California high schooler Robert Stock. With Stock considered the higher ceiling of the two. At 17, he's an extremely talented two way athlete. On the rubber he consistantly hits 94-96 mph with a real good breaking ball and he's a catcher with good defensive qualities and very good power potential. Nevertheless, we'll have to wait til the 2009 draft on Stock as he's signed on to play for USC, due to his academic standings, Stock was allowed to skip his senior year in high school.

David Price - LHP (Vanderbilt) 6'6 220lb L/L

So let's move on to the rest of the players that are qualified for the 2007 draft, starting with David Price. The 6'6 lefty has a deceptive delivery that some scouts feel needs worked out to ensure the health of his arm. He's arsenal consists of a fastball that sits 93-96 mph and touched 98 mph, along with a hard breaking slider that registers at 86-88 mph, plus a good changeup that makes him absolutely filthy. Not only does Price have nasty stuff, but he has great control. During the regular season, he had some problems but for Team USA, it looks like his hammered those out. He's been called the best college pitcher to come out of the draft since Prior by some scouts. There's also good reason to believe he won't slip to #3, as the Royals recently showed they aren't afraid to spend on an elite college player. Of course, Andrew Miller was the number one guy at this time last year before the 2006 draft where he went sixth overall to the Tigers.

Mike Main - RHP HS (FL) 6'7 220lb R/R

With a late season run and good numbers this summer in the Cape Cod League, Florida high schooler Mike Main is making some noise. Some scouts have compared him to Mike Mussina bodywise. Main has a fastball that sits consistantly at 94-96 mph with late movement. His secondary pitches consist of a hard curve that's around 74-79 mph along with a late heavy sinking changeup around 76-80 mph. Unfortunately he has some serious problems with throwing across his body delivery plus the tendency to try hitting lightening it up on the gun with his fastball. He's got an eerie similiarity to Kerry Wood. He missed most of the 2005 season due to a shoulder injury.

Matt Weiter - C/RHP (Georgia Tech) 6'5 235lbs S/R

Without question the best college hitter in the draft is Georgia Tech catcher Matt Weiters. Some call the 6'5 switch hitter the best college hitter since Mark Teixeira. Currently, he's a premiere hitter yet has pitched very well as the Yellow Jackets' closer, constantly hitting 94-98 mph with his fastball. Still he projects as a positional player due to great eye at the plate, his above average power and a very good bat. There's a very good chance he doesn't stay behind the plate positionally, but he has a strong enough arm and big enough bat to play either third base or rightfield or a worse case scenerio first base. It also won't hurt that Scott Boras is Weiters representing advisor, someone the Cubs don't have a problem dealing with. Still there is talk that the Royals absolutely love Weiters and see him as keypiece for their future.

Andrew Brackman - RHP (NC State) 7'0 245lbs R/R

At 7ft tall (reported height listings varies from 6'10 - 7'), Brackman would be the tallest MLB. He'll decide in the coming weeks whether or not he'll forgo his baskeball scholarship and roster spot on the NC State team to concentrate on baseball. If he does, then there goes big leverage that he would have in signing a deal, something his advisor (Boras) would exploit. His fastball consistantly hits 94-96 mph and topped out at 99 mph this season. With his long arms and release point though, a 95 mph has the illusion of being 5-10 mph faster. What's more is that he throws from a low angle which is even more deceptive. Not only does he have the high octane fastball but he's got a tight slider and late breaking splitter both are quality secondary pitches. For a big guy, his mechanics are pretty fluid, occasionally he has hitches in it but those can be worked out. His good control is suprising as well, what's not suprising is that this talented player already has Scott Boras on as his advisor. Brackman needs to work on changing his speeds with his fastball as he often gets caught up in hitting high 90's rather than mixing in a low 90 fastball here and there to keep the hitters honest. Reportedly, he was working on a changeup in the Cape Cod League this summer, if he gets it down, he'll be just nasty.

Personally, he's my pick that I think the Cubs will take. He's NOT my pick, I reserve that for Weiters but I don't think he'll slip to us and if Price is gone, then Brackman starts looking good.

James Adkins - LHP (Tennessee) 6'6 225lb R/L

Adkins is a lefty who has the stuff and frame to go in the top 10 selections. His fastball isn't dominating, usually sitting around 88-92 mph with little movement. But he uses it effectively with the best breaking ball in the draft. It's very Wood-esque, in that it's not a slider nor a curve but rather a "slurve". The pitch registers 86-88 mph and is absolutely filthy, there is no question it's already an MLB pitch. Again like Wood, he has some serious control problems and has a tendency to throw across his body.

J.P. Arencibia - C (Tennessee) 6'1 195lbs R/R

The righty hitter went to the same high school as A-Rod (Westminster Christian in Miami, FL), where he tied Alex's school homerun record. He has a good eye at the plate and a knowledge of the strikezone, allowing him to work counts. He's not afraid to get two strikes on him as he has strong contact ability along with very nice power potential. Defensively, he's not nearly as well rounded, he's adequate behind the plate in blocking pitches. His arm is above average but he needs some work on his footwork and accuracy to the bag. His value is as a catcher but with such a mild abilities behind the plate and a developed bat, a position switch could be in his future.

Joe Savery - LHP/1B (Rice) 6'3 215lbs L/L

The lefties' fastball sits around 92-94 mph with heavy sinking motion and works in a 90 mph slider that just mystifies hitters. Not only is he the best starting pitcher for one of the best college teams in the nation, but he's also a great hitter. Featuring a smooth sweet swing, some power potential, and a good eye at the plate along with playing stellar defense at first base. When he's drafted though, his arm is too big of a commidity to keep him as a hitter. Unfortunately Savery suffered a shoulder injury and had some minor surgery, that's why he pulled out of all summer ball this year. He's still expected back for the 2007 season.

Cole St. Clair - LHP (Rice) 6'5 225lb L/L

Look out for this guy, as he'll probably be the guy who makes it to the MLB the quickest. Much like Huston Street from a few years back and Tim Linecum in 2006, St. Clair has been groomed to close big games in college and he has the stuff to translate to the bigs. Of course, there isn't much of a ceiling to the kid, what you see is what you're going to get. Of all the players in the draft, he's the most projectable as he's a finished product. He features a fastball that dances despite the 94-96 mph velocity and an incredible curveball that he works in well. To boot, he has good control, knows how to pitch, and is fearless. He still has a changeup in his arsenal but he's scraped it , in the future he could easily bring it back though.

Sequoyah Stonecipher - OF HS (CA) 6'0 185lb R/R

When scouts talk about players with tools, Stonecipher is their holy grail. He's extremely athletic, with well above average power, speed, contact, glove, and arm. He's easily the player with the most tools in the draft, the only question is if he'll learn how to use them properly. If he does, then he'll be a top 5 pick and with the Cubs history, we might have a match.

Blake Beavan - RHP HS (TX) 6'7 205lb R/R

He's from the same hometown as Kerry Wood (Irving, TX) but that's the end of their similarities. Unlike Wood, Beaven has solid mechanics, throwing the ball at a low 3/4 approach and getting good movement. His fastball sits around 92-94 mph and topped out at 96 mph, with heavy sink. He works in a tight slider that's tough to hit and usually around 82-84 mph, an overhand curveball and a developing changeup. Scouts have compared him alot to Padres ace Jake Peavy.

Nick Schmidt - LHP (Arkansas) 6'5 220lb L/L

Schmidt's fastball usually is in the 92-94 range touching 96 mph several times this past year. He's polished and that's why he'll definately go in the first round. He's got a very deceptive delivery along with a good curve which led to his very low H/9 along with solid K/BB, K/9, BB/9.

Eric Berger - LHP (Arizona) 6'1 190lb L/L

The lefty Berger is a darkhorse to look out for, going into the 2006 season he was one of the top pitchers to be available in the 2007 draft. But he suffered an elbow injury and endured a Tommy John operation in early June. He'll be ready for the start of the 2007 Arizona season, and if he's healthy, he could go still go early in the first round. Before his injury, he was consistantly at 90-92 mph topping out at 95 mph with real good movement. His secondary pitches are advanced, throwing a sharp curve and a tight slider. Still with his injury, Berger doesn't have much of a shot at climbing high in the first round, but he could slip to the Cubs in the second round.

Sean Doolittle - LHP (Virginia) 6'2 180lb L/L

He's like Savery, just not as hyped. His fastball is around 91-93 mph which is deadly wiith his delivery and a very good slider. He's still working on his changeup which he'll probably throw more in 2007. Doolittle gives up alot of flyballs as his fastball doesn't have much movement and he often makes mistakes with it. He's got a good bat, but he'll be drafted for his pitching ability and not his bat.


Matt Harvey - RHP HS (CT) 6'4 190lb R/R

I don't have much on Harvey except that he has explosive stuff with a sinking fastball and a nasty power breaking ball. I'll get more on him as the season progresses


Wes Roemer RHP (CS-Fullerton) 6'0 185lb R/R

Roemer doesn't get much talk but he's a control artist with the good stuff. This season in 125 2/3 IP, he gave up 113 K to just 4 BB. Yeah he struck out 109 more guys than he walked which is just an outstanding rate.

[catman]

Good analysis of the players, Bob.
The Cubs needs are varied. They could use more youth in the outfield -- Jones is not getting younger and Pierre may be gone through free agency. Murton is a solid kid in left.
They are OK in the infield, but they could always use some depth there. Theriot is ready to produce at 2B. Restovich is an acceptible backup for Lee if he has more injury issues. Casey McGehee looks like he could be ready to go at 3B if A'Ram goes down. Mike Fontenot could be a utility guy, as could McGehee.
The pitching looks like it will be OK next season, if the kids can perform. Rich Hill is a good one. Les Walrond should be OK, as should Sean Marshall. Angel Guzman looks like he's ready to go as well. That makes 5 guys that could go if Prior and Wood aren't available, with Zambrano at the top of the rotation regardless.
In the draft, I would target pitching. You can never have too much.

[catman]

The thought of facing a 7 footer would frighten me. He sounds too good to be true.

[realmofotalk]

Sean Doolittle - LHP (Virginia) 5'2 180lb L/L

5'2 has to be a typo, correct? A 5'2 guy weighing 180lbs would resemble a bowling ball.

[Bob Sacamento]

5'2 has to be a typo, correct? A 5'2 guy weighing 180lbs would resemble a bowling ball.

Yeah it was a typo.

[redsrbetter]

Can we get some more Bob? I like the name Bob coming out of Chicago. Reminds me of the old SNL skit with the Chicago sports fans. You know the one, "How yuh doin Bayb?" "That hart-a-tayck makes a baykers dossen for me Bayb" and "Duuuuuuh Beyrss"

Yeah, my spelling is trying to compliment the accent, so hopefully it made sense at least.

Anyhow Bob, I would like to see the Cubs do better than what they got this year. I think Stock is going to be a real nice pitcher. I am against Moneyball thinking when I agree that picking a high school player is a good decision. When you can get a player with that kind of potential, you do it. Good luck this season in the draft.

[Bob Sacamento]

Anyhow Bob, I would like to see the Cubs do better than what they got this year. I think Stock is going to be a real nice pitcher. I am against Moneyball thinking when I agree that picking a high school player is a good decision. When you can get a player with that kind of potential, you do it. Good luck this season in the draft.

Colvin didn't turn out to be that bad of a pick, as he was named the Top Prospect in the Northwest League by Baseball America. Colvin was probably a late 1st-2nd rd talent but since the Cubs didn't have a 2nd, 3rd or 4th Round pick they decided to sign a furthur along talent despite Tyler having a lower ceiling than some of the other players left on the board. But the Cubs balanced that off by throwing around money to later drafted prospects whom were top level talents. Signing Samardzija in the 5th round, despite him easily being one of the Top 20 talents in the draft. Then signing top HS talents whom were thought to be unsignable, in Cliff Anderson, Drew Rundle, and Chris Huseby.

Personally, I'm a Moneyball guy, I'll take a college player over a high school one 99 times out of 100. It's only those once in a lifetime HS players do you take that chance on. Robert Stock was it but he signed and will play college ball for USC. Despite the fact that he just finishing his junior year of high school but scored so well on his SAT that he was able to bypass his senior year of high school. Stock won't be eligible for the MLB draft now until 2009. With the talent out there, there is not a HSer that I want at the #3 pick. Mike Main has the best ability of all the HS to be a top 3 pick but I'd severely caution against taking any high school kid who's already missed a year due to shoulder problems.

[redsrbetter]

Good thoughts here bro. You definitely know more about the Cubs system than I do and I stand corrected on the Colvin remarks. But I was just remembering that he was not a coveted pick at that number in last year's draft. But its understandable now on why they did that.

I like Moneyball a lot, but I don't agree with 100% of it. This is just one part I don't think has to be true for everyone. Taking a High School player with the #3 pick overall would be assanine for sure though. So you have a credible point there.

So who do your think is the right fit from your list in the opening post? Or is there someone else out there floating around that you like?