In Depth Look at Cubs Going to the AFL

[Bob Sacamento]

By: Bob Sacamento
Cubshub.com


It's getting close to that time of year where the kids playing in winter leagues is the only thing we have to look forward to. That being said, the Arizona Fall League rosters have been announced. Convention would have one think that the AFL is the creme de la creme of prospects, but that's not always the truth. As evident with the Cubs list of prospects going this season. Instead teams often send a "need" position player, top A ballers, aging AAA prospects, and injured players. Outcomes of great preformances can result in a player skipping a level, an addition to the 40 man roster, and possible selection in the Rule V draft.

The games rarely draw more than a hundred or so in attendance, and close to half of those are scouts and agents. Personally, if you have the chance to go to one of these games, GO!! I've done so in the past, and it's a remarkable experience. Just go up and talk to the scouts they're obvious to spot, often they have no problem talking baseball, who's who, and what they're watching for.

This year like the past 10 offseasons, the Cubs AFL players will play for the Mesa Solar Sox which will play it's home games in the Cubs Spring Training HQ, in HoHoKam Park. The Solar Sox will be headed by West Tennessee DiamondJaxx coach and former Rookie of the Year, Pat Listach. This year the team is comprised of prospects from the Astros, Dodgers, Twins, and Mets farm system.

While the Cubs are sending their top catching prospect (Jake Fox), top third baseman prospect (Scott Moore), and top second baseman (Eric Patterson). In addition to those three, the Cubs have announced that they'll send former 2003 top pick Grant Johnson, the rubber armed lefty Carmen Pignatiello, and old man lefty Clay Rapada. Reports are currently that one of the three positional players will be the taxi squad player, playing only sporadicly (Wednesday and Saturday).




C Jake Fox

Year Team Level G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
2005 DAY Hi A 83 270 37 76 20 0 9 40 26 48 5 2 0.281 0.357 0.456 0.813
2006 DAY Hi A 66 249 45 78 15 1 16 61 27 49 4 1 0.313 0.383 0.574 0.957
2006 WTN AA 52 182 18 49 16 0 5 23 8 41 0 0 0.269 0.302 0.440 0.742



Fox has been playing a little bit of left and right field of late for the Jaxx, partly due to injuries and promotions but it somewhat to do with his defense behind the plate. It's also been reported that he'll play some left field and first base when he goes to the AFL, along with right field and catching that he’s already doing in AA. Jake was tearing up Daytona, but that's to be expected, he was older than most of his competition and repeating a level that he competed in the year prior. He started off really rocky in AA, but has turned it around in August, hitting with power and average, but his walk rate is alot lower than it has been historically.

Fox is worth more to the Cubs as a catcher but if his glove can't improve quickly, the Cubs will start using Fox around the corner outfields. He has projectable power and management feels if he is moved out from behind the plate, it will allow him to concentrate on his offensive numbers. The Cubs will also have to decide whether to protect him for the Rule V draft or chance that not many teams want to gamble on a catcher with subpar defense.



3B Scott Moore

Year Team Level G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
2005 DAY Hi A 128 466 77 131 31 2 20 82 55 134 22 7 0.281 0.358 .485 0.843
2006 WTN AA 130 458 51 126 28 0 22 74 51 125 12 7 0.275 0.354 0.480 0.835



If it were not for Scott Moore, one could almost call the Kyle Farnsworth deal a complete bust. Moore was a former first round pick (8th overall) in 2002 by the Tigers and was used as a shortstop but suffered from poor range and his bat was very inadequate in 2003 and 2004. One of our resident members, Kirel, pointed out that Moore could possibly be lagging due to the switch from aluminum bats to wooden. And it very well could be, because since becoming a Cub, his bat has picked up, both contact and powerwise. It also could be due to the fact the Cubs switched him to thirdbase fulltime, a far less demanding position than shortstop. But even with Moore's improved bat, his discipline at the plate has always been suspect. His average OBP-AVG differential has always been around .080, which is great but he has been playing older in younger levels which can cause inflation. The most alarming stat though is his very high strikeout rate, it's been the same the last four years. Moore has to be protected on the 40 man roster or else he'll be exposed and likely selected in the Rule V draft. With a depleted Iowa roster, Moore was promoted but didn't last long as he quickly got the call from Chicago. With a depleted Iowa roster Moore was promoted to Iowa, and there was some initial talk of getting Scott some time at SS. But with Chicago facing it's own depleted roster, his stay in Iowa didn't last long (1 game) and Moore has impressed with his bat thus far.

As for Scott defensively, he's not the next Scott Rolen but he plays a solid third, in an infield with a rangy shortstop and a great first baseman he'd look even better. He makes the plays he's suppose to, and has a cannon for an arm. His future as a third baseman is up in the air though, depending on what happens with Aramis Ramirez. If ARam is locked up than Scott will likely make some appearances next year in the OF for Iowa, while manning third base primarily. If Ramirez walks via free agency, than Moore will continue to play thirdbase, the question will be if it's in Iowa or Chicago. If Moore has a good AFL season and impresses at Spring Training than he could challenge for the starting job in Chicago. If not the Cubs will look for a stopgag until Moore is ready. But Chicago is counting on that they are able to re-sign (or that he'll honor his current deal) their best third baseman since Ron Santo.

2B Eric Patterson

Year Team Level G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
2005 PEO Hi A 110 432 90 144 26 11 13 71 53 94 40 11 0.333 0.405 0.535 0.940
2005 WTN AA 9 30 5 6 2 0 0 2 6 7 3 2 0.200 0.324 0.267 0.591
2006 WTN AA 121 441 66 116 22 9 8 48 46 89 38 12 0.263 0.330 0.408 0.738
2006 IOW PCL 13 49 10 17 1 0 1 8 6 7 6 0 0.347 0.404 0.429 0.832



Eric is the Patterson we have been waiting for. The Cubs really believe that Eric is their future leadoff hitter, of course they though the same with his brother only a few years prior. EP works counts and isn't afraid to get two strikes, in his minor league career, his OBP-AVG differential is around .070. O fcourse when you get deep into counts the probabiliby of striking out goes up exponientially, a Eric's strikeouts are a little higher than one would hope for but he shows great promise of lowering them. So far he's shown a great ability to hit for extrabases, in addition to his speed turning singles to doubles and doubles to triples, he can go long. Let's just hope he doesn't fall in love with the longball like his brother did. Unlike Corey though, the Cubs have utilized his speed and ability to spray liners and grounders around the field to their advantage. As throughout Eric's minor league career, he's been primarily a leadoff hitter capatilizing on his speed in the box and on the basepaths.

Defensively, he covers alot field at second, and possesses a strong arm. Still some scouts still question his glove as he all too often boots routine grounders, saying he's better off as a centerfielder. But the Cubs have no desire to make the conversion, especially with Pie waiting in the wings and the efforts to re-sign Juan Pierre. A little more seasoning for Eric and he should be ready for a full-time MLB job by the start of 2008.

LHP Clay Rapada

Year Team Level W L G GS SV IP H ER HR BB SO ERA WHIP AVG
2005 DAY Hi A 1 3 27 0 5 42.1 40 18 2 16 61 3.83 1.32 0.245
2006 WTN AA 3 2 33 0 21 43.2 30 4 1 10 45 0.82 0.92 0.192
2006 IOW AAA 3 2 26 0 0 21.2 25 8 0 15 19 3.32 1.85 0.316


This season of AFL is important to all of these guys but to a 25 year old (26 in March) Rapada, this season could make or possibly break his chances of reaching the major leagues. He's a lefty that is strong against fellow southpaws, but this year at West Tenn he posted amazing numbers across the board. Personally, I just throw those numbers out the window, Clay was 25 years old and playing against competition thats usually 3 years younger. Since being promoted to Iowa and players of his own ilk, Rapada has been lit up by the the right handed hitters, yet still strong against the lefties. What's killing him though is his walk numbers, if he can get a hold of his command, he could very well compete for a roster spot next year especially if the arbitration eligible Will Ohman is traded.



RHP Grant Johnson

Year Team Level W L G GS CG SHO SV IP H ER HR BB SO ERA WHIP AVG
2005 PEO Low A 3 8 14 14 1 0 0 73 65 31 7 26 52 3.82 1.25 0.242
2006 DAY Hi A 7 5 30 10 0 0 1 91.2 105 48 7 37 56 4.71 1.55 0.290


Johnson was the Cubs top selection in the 2002 draft (2nd round) despite the fact that he had Tommy John surgery the season prior. He pitched well last year for Peoria despite his horrible record. This year though, he was hit pretty hard as a starter (in 54 IP, gave up 61 H, 22 BB, 29 K, 5.17 ERA, 1.54 WHIP,.292 BAA) and went on the disabled list for a while. Since he's returned in June, Johnson has been working out of the bullpen. So far it's paid off as he's velocity is back up in the low 90's and he's regained some of his control. Still he's not fooling hitters (in 38 IP, 47 H, 16 BB, 27 K, 4.03 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, .297BAA), anyway it looks like he'll be working in the West Tenn bullpen in 2007 and staying in that role.

RHP Lincoln Holdzkom

Year Team Level W L G GS SV IP H ER HR BB SO ERA WHIP AVG
2005 GC MARL Rk 0 0 3 0 0 4 5 1 0 1 6 2.25 1.50 0.313
2005 JUP Hi A 0 1 9 0 1 9.1 7 6 0 5 9 5.79 1.29 0.206
2006 AZ CUBS Rk 0 2 5 1 0 8.2 11 2 0 3 10 2.08 1.61 0.324
2006 DAY Hi A 0 0 2 0 0 5 3 0 0 2 6 0.00 1.00 0.167
2006 WTN AA 2 3 17 0 0 30.1 23 7 0 10 24 2.08 1.09 0.217


Along with Rapada, Holdzkom is fighting for a spot on the Cubs 40 man roster, but he'll have to really preform to make that happen. If you forgot or didn't know, the Cubs acquired Holdzkom last year from the Marlins in exchange for Todd Wellemeyer. Lincoln has a power fastball and a slider but he missed all of the 2004 season with Tommy John surgery, and he was late to pitch in 2005. He's had some minor troubles with his arm since then thus the Cubs have taken their time with promoting him.

Still Lincoln could be a diamond in the rough, his fastball has hit 99 mph this season, he has still not allowed a homerun in 168 career innings, and his slider is coming along very nicely. He's also extremely hard to hit when he's on. If he preforms well, he'll probably being the 2007 season in Iowa, and would have a very good shot at being protected and added to the 40 man list. But he really has to shine, elsewise the lefty Rapada will get the spot on the 40 man roster the two are dueling over.

LHP Carmen Pignatiello

Year Team Level W L G GS CG SHO SV IP H ER HR BB SO ERA WHIP AVG
2005 WTN AA 5 4 16 10 0 0 0 80.2 67 24 3 28 77 2.68 1.18 0.228
2005 IOW AAA 1 5 22 5 0 0 0 47.1 52 29 6 20 43 5.51 1.52 0.274
2006 WTN AA 3 1 38 1 0 0 0 60.1 52 18 3 19 74 2.69 1.18 0.230
2006 IOW AAA 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 5.2 7 2 0 2 4 3.18 1.59 0.304


Pigs or Piggie as he is known to his teammates, will be 24 in little more than a week. He started the 2006 season in West Tennesse, his fourth year in a row to pitch for the Jaxx in some facet but is back Iowa, his second consecutive time to end the season in AAA. Before last year, he had been used as a starter but West Tennessee converted him to the pen due to too many other young arms there. Since then he's pitched primarily in relief, and usually long relief. Carmen is a very soft tosser with an outstanding curveball, solid command, and great makeup. His fastball usually sits between 84-86 mph but he has a very deceptive delivery, the ability to spot his pitches, and the fortitude to carry on through tough situations. Historically, he's been more effective against lefties, but this season he's been slightly better against right handed hitters.

Carmen Pignatiello is in a precarious position, in that he was due to become a minor league free agent (after playing six seasons in the minors, players get the option). But with the Cubs sending him to the AFL, it means that he's already agreed to re-sign with the club because minor league free agents can't compete in the AFL. Even still, if Carmen impresses in the AFL, then he'll have to be added to the 40 man roster if not then he'll be exposed to the Rule V draft.

Recent Cubs AFL History

Here's what the Cub prospects have done the last three years in the Arizona Fall League:

Hitters

Year Player POS G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
2005 Matt Murton OF 24 92 15 31 11 1 1 14 7 12 3 1 0.337 0.396 0.511 0.907
2005 Eric Patterson 2B 19 83 20 25 4 1 0 5 6 17 5 3 0.301 0.344 0.373 0.718
2005 Brandon Sing 1B 19 69 9 17 6 0 3 10 10 24 1 1 0.246 0.338 0.464 0.801
2005 Buck Coats SS 12 39 5 10 1 0 0 4 2 6 0 0 0.256 0.286 0.282 0.568
2004 Brian Dopirak 1B 25 95 14 26 7 0 7 18 5 23 0 0 0.274 0.324 0.568 0.892
2004 Adam Greenberg OF 18 75 11 24 3 2 0 5 5 14 5 1 0.320 0.363 0.413 0.776
2004 Ronny Cedeno SS 20 70 6 14 2 2 0 4 6 12 1 0 0.200 0.282 0.286 0.568
2004 Jake Fox C 14 35 3 10 2 0 0 2 3 7 1 0 0.286 0.359 0.343 0.702
2003 Jason Dubois OF 30 120 25 43 12 2 9 29 2 27 2 0 0.358 0.379 0.717 1.096
2003 Brendan Harris 3B 25 96 19 29 7 0 3 19 6 12 2 0 0.302 0.358 0.469 0.827
2003 Casey Kopitzke C 20 61 10 11 0 0 1 8 5 14 0 0 0.180 0.254 0.320 0.574
2003 Ryan Theriot IF 12 25 5 6 0 0 0 4 1 4 5 0 0.240 0.259 0.240 0.499



Pitchers

Year Player W L G GS SV IP H ER HR BB K ERA WHIP BAA
2005 Angel Guzman 1 2 7 7 0 30.2 28 13 2 12 28 3.82 1.30 0.241
2005 David Aardsma 0 0 12 0 0 18.2 32 20 2 10 18 9.64 2.25 0.370
2005 John Koronka 1 0 10 0 3 13 8 0 0 5 11 0.00 1.00 0.178
2004 Sean Marshall 0 1 5 5 0 18.1 21 8 3 2 16 3.93 1.25 0.284
2004 Russ Rohlicek 3 1 16 0 1 19.2 15 5 1 11 26 2.29 1.32 0.205
2004 Jae kuk Ryu 1 3 8 3 0 19.2 27 14 2 9 19 6.41 1.83 0.314
2003 Jason Szuminski 0 0 12 0 0 19.1 24 9 2 7 19 4.19 1.60 0.293
2003 John Webb 4 0 10 4 0 26 27 7 1 6 18 2.42 1.27 0.265
2003 Ben Christensen 0 0 1 1 0 1.1 2 2 0 4 2 13.50 4.51 0.400

All stats current as of 8/3

[love_that_reefer]

Where the hell have you been Bob? Good read bro!

[Bob Sacamento]

Where the hell have you been Bob? Good read bro!

I've been busy with Chiro. school and when I do write it's been mainly at my website Cubshub.com

[BoSox34]

Very, very good read... I love how in-depth everything is!

[redsrbetter]

You just made me want to go out and see who the Reds are sending out to play Winter Ball. Nice read man. Hopefully some of these guys will pan out nicely. Fox sounds like a beast.

[redsrbetter]

Well, it turns out the only guy I care about in the Reds organization is Phil Dumatrait. Maybe Moran and Dickerson and Pelland. But there isnt too much excitement for me there. I guess making a write-up like yours is not an appettite for me.

But at least you have inspired me to care.