Should we be concerned about Papelbon?

[BrewerBall13]

Papelbon has blown four saves thus far this year, and a good number of his converted saves have seemed a lot harder to get than they shoudl have been. He remains a top closer, but his numbers are falling off from last year's:

2007: 58.1 IP, 30 H, 12 ER, 5 HR, 15 BB, 84 K

2008: 33.1 IP, 25 H, 8 ER, 3 HR, 5 BB, 43 K

He's giving up more hits, more extra base hits, walking more people, striking out fewer, etc. Is this a temporary setback, is the league figuring him out, or is he hurt? It's not like we have any other options at the closer position, but if his numbers decline further, our pen will become much more of a concern. And given that the race is going to be tight again, we cannot afford not to be able to trust Paps.

Somebody please tell me I'm wrong about this, because if we can't trust Paps out of the pen then my alcohol budget is going to increase dramatically...

[ljshorty89]

Most of his numbers aren't as far off as you think. Remember, we're not HALF WAY done, we're 95 out of 162. So, if you look at his numbers as a percentage of ONLY 58 Innings, he's on pace for 43 H, 14 ER, 5 HR, 9 BB, 76 K. So, in reality, his numbers are VERY similar to last year outside of the Hits. If he has 2 more ER, the same number of HR, fewer BB, and just a couple fewer K's, he'll still be one of the better closers in the league. He'll be fine.