Mark Buehrle's Red Sox Prospects

[Fishercat]

Ken Williams is sick of the White Sox and he's not going to take it anymore! That probably means Buehrle is going to be the prize of his crop of players to see. I've already given a general opinion in the "Hot Off The Wire" forum, so something a little more focused here at Boston.

First of all, Buehrle would give the Sox a legit 3rd or 4th SP (depending if Schilling is pitching at the time) for 2007. A Top 4 of Schilling-Beckett-Matsuzaka-Buehrle provides a playoff stable that would be difficult to top, and give the Sox a HUGE advantage. The 5th SP would either be Wake or Tavarez (I'd keep Tavarez in there, who has been awesome lately. Wake has good career numbers out of the pen, and imagine going Beckett-Wake-Papelbon if you're a hitter. Yikes). Either way, with Buehrle in 2007, the Sox would have to be at least up there with the Tigers and Angels as playoff favorites.

Second, Buehrle (if extended) gives the Sox a long-term Top 3 of Beckett, Matsuzaka, and Buehrle. That, with the prospects in the system (notably Buchholz and Bowden) and Papelbon and Wakefield, provide the Sox with pitching so that they don't have to scvange the FA for SPs any time soon. Worst case, if he's not extended, the Sox take a notable hit in their farm but get two draft picks to help replenish it.

Overall, that's very appetizing for Boston, that even if Buehrle regresses into a 105-115 ERA+ pitcher, the Sox still have a great starting three for many years to come.

With that said, what's the cost? Jon Heyman (CNNSI) is speculating that, based on Williams' talk with the Yankees, he is looking for top prospect. He was interesting in Kennedy, Hughes and/or Chamberlain, who Cashman did not want to give up. He continues to speculate that the first team to give up a Grade A prospect will get him.

I don't know what Grade A means here, but I am going to assume the only one of those that Boston has is Clay Buchholz and I'd be hard pressed to give him up if a big star isn't returning.

Ideally, I would like to see the Sox grab him for spare parts, but it won't happen. More likely, if they do get Buehrle, I see the trade as being one of the Sox "big three" (Lets say Bowden), one of the Sox Top 10 (Jed Lowrie or Brandon Moss), and a solid MLB ready prospect (Kason Gabbard or David Murphy). If the package is something like Bowden, Moss, and Gabbard...it'd be tough but I'd have to pull the trigger and hope Bowden isn't that special (in spite of his domination of Lancaster)

Basically, it depends on the package and if Buehrle will sign an extension. If the Sox could lock him up for 5/60, then I am fine with sending off what I said above. If not, my price lowers dramatically. And still, I don't think Boston will be the first team to blink in paying a good prospect...I just hope NY doesn't get him

[Turn 2]

This move for the Redsox would put them over the top.