Daisuke Matsuzaka

[Fishercat]

Is there any way he can live up to the hype? Baseball Prospectus is calling his signing, even considering the posting fee, one of the better signings of the off-season and the best pitcher on the FA market. He's at least the one with the most potential and has the ability to reach Halladay and Carpenter level. Baseball America's newly released prospect list put him at #1 (at the age of 26), ahead of players such as Alex Gordon, Delmon Young, and Phil Hughes. Even if you don't consider him a true prospect, it's high praise for a Japanese import, especially considering the lack of long-term success for such import pitchers.

What is your prediction for Dice-K? Will he even get close to what the Boston media and many fans expect (RotY and Top 5/10 for Cy Young), will he be a complete and utter bomb?

Here is the PECOTA Projection for Mats.

12-9
187 IP
168 K
45% GB%
3.99 ERA
1.28 WHIP
35.9 VORP

For reference, that would put him among the better pitchers in baseball, more of a Tier 2 guy than a Tier 1 in his rookie year. If this was his season in 2006, he would be 44th in MLB VORP for pitchers (between Jeff Francis and Matt Cain). He would have been 9th among rookie pitchers, between the previously mentioned Cain and former Sox farmhand Anibal Sanchez

So, what do you see for Dice-K this year? Personally, I am a little more optimistic than BP, but not nearly as optimistic as my Red Sox bretheren. He very well should be good, although this may be his best year, or one of them. Here is what I see

Wins: 16
Losses: 8
IP: 198
GS: 31
ERA: 3.64
WHIP: 1.19

I think he will be among the Top 35 pitchers in VORP and in the Top 3 for rookie pitchers. I think he will be voted third in AL RotY voting.

[browntown653]

I foresee a good future for Dice-K, although I refuse to type his last name. Obviously it's always a gamble with players from the Far East, or the far anywhere for that matter, but I have heard nothing but praise heaped upon this guy. I predict he starts off well and adjusts to the game quickly but will struggle toward the end of the year when hitters start to figure him out and the schedule starts to wear him out. But by paying an outrageous posting fee like this, you know this guy has big-time potential and could be one of the gems of the FA market. Here's my stat line prediction...

Wins: 15
Losses: 9
IP: 204
GS: 33
ERA: 3.85
WHIP: 1.24

[CrimsonNW]

Here's my prediction:

Wins: 15
Losses: 5
IP: 215
GS: 33
ERA: 3.43
WHIP: 1.22

ESPN the Mag has him among the top 15 starters in the league and they are projecting his stats as this:

Wins: 16
Losses: 5
IP: 191
GS: 27
ERA: 3.06
WHIP: 1.08
K: 192

That's a pretty damn good year for him...

[HBK]

I think any less than 15 wins would be disappointing imo...i got high hopes for him...

[BuckFoston]

I think that Dice-K will be a very good pitcher.....I don't know how good he is going to be though because he has not had to face line-ups such as the Yankees,Whitesox,Angels and even the Blue Jays could cause him some trouble. I do think he will be good I just don't know if he will be as good as everyone thinks...

[Saber]

He's no Kei Igawa.

[BuckFoston]

You better believe it!

[Peavy_44]

I think any less than 15 wins would be disappointing imo...i got high hopes for him...

Overall, i think he is gonna be a very solid player for Boston, but not in year one. Small ball park, cold weather early, then i'm sure he will heat up by summer, and then slow down when it matters late in the season.

I don't think he will get 15 wins, i'd say 11 or 12... with a 4 something era.

[GiantsFanatic]

I think that Dice-K will be a very good pitcher.....I don't know how good he is going to be though because he has not had to face line-ups such as the Yankees,Whitesox,Angels and even the Blue Jays could cause him some trouble. I do think he will be good I just don't know if he will be as good as everyone thinks...

Your right he hasn't faced those teams, but he sure as hell faced the world at the WBC, going 3-0 1.38 ERA, MVP honors.

I think Dice-K will go 17-9 with a 2.73 ERA, 1.74 WHIP, 225 IP.