Baltimore Orioles Buy Or Sell

[ThomasTomasz]

This thread will work just like the Around The Horn game. Every week or so, I will propose a Buy or Sell question to you posters. You respond "Buy" or "Sell" and explain why. Feel free to debate those who disagree with you.

For the first week, our questions is:

Buy or Sell: The Orioles are in the top four (American League) for total ERA after the All-Star break.

[Fishercat]

I have to sell. At this point, they are second to last in the AL for ERA, and without any foreseeable comebacks, they should stay there. I figure Chen can only get better (as he's sucked), as will Benson, but still. An icky staff to be sure

[ThomasTomasz]

I have to sell. At this point, they are second to last in the AL for ERA, and without any foreseeable comebacks, they should stay there. I figure Chen can only get better (as he's sucked), as will Benson, but still. An icky staff to be sure

I'm actually going to buy that. We've seen an improvement in the bullpen over the past few weeks with the young players we've brought up, and they will only be helped by having their AAA pitching coach in the bullpen.

The Orioles also lead the majors in walks, or are somewhere up there. Most of those are coming from the starters, who are still working on grasping Mazzone's philosophy of the "low and away pitch." It should come as no surprise, then, that the pitchers are missing this spot, therefore, give up more walks, and don't work deep into games, both problems this year. It should also come as no surprise that the Orioles pitcher with the most success so far is Chris Ray, who had already mastered the low and away pitch in the minors.

The main problem with this is, the pitching motion for many of this young pitchers had to be adjusted. We see with Zach Duke in Pittsburgh, who is struggling right now, because his pitching coach made some mechanical adjustments during Spring Training. It takes time, usually half a season, before these adjustments begin to show. It also did not help that four of the five Orioles starters, including Bedard and Cabrera, missed most of ST due to the WBC, which meant less time with Leo Mazzone.

So yes, I buy that. The Orioles pitchers should be much improved during the second half of this season, and if the starters can just pitch into the 7th, we should see a drastic improvement.

[Dry1313]

Sell Sell Sell. The run only gets more diffucult for the O's after the break.

TEXAS 7
OAKLAND 6
LA ANGELS OF ANAHEIM 3
CHI SOX 3
SEATTLE 3
YANKEES 12
RED SOX 9
BLUE JAYS 6
MINNESOTA 6
DETROIT 4

TAMPA 9
KC 3

Red will probably help the ERA, Blue will probably hurt.

Now, the Rotation:
1. Rodrigo Lopez, 6.85: Expect this to go down to about mid 4's.
2. Erik Bedard, 5.60: Ungodly for him, but not a huge dropoff, high 4's.
3. Kris Benson, 4.32: Only a few points off of career ERA. Has been playing well, I actually expect this to jump to the low 5's, high 4's.
4. Daniel Cabrera, 4.17: I'd guess this goes up, it's under his career, and plus, he's not really that good. High 4's.
5. Adam Loewen, 7.82: If you take this into account, the ERA will drop significantly, because I expect him to drop about 3.00 points. Only problem is, that's still the high 4's.

PEN:
Chris Ray, 3.07: I expect this to be a little higher, about 3.50.
Todd Williams, 4.44: ALthough this is above his Career #'s, I doubt he'll greatly improve on this #.
LaTroy Hawkins, 3.69: If anyone expects him to finish with this good of an ERA, they have to seriously remember who they're dealing with. That being said, he'll reach mid to low 4's, a good year for him.
Sendy Rleal, 3.13: Never really seen him, but I'd guess it'll go up. He's been pitching well recently, so I'd expect him to be a low 3.
Kurt Birkins, 1.27: He's good, but not this good. High 2's, Low 3's unless he has some monumental collapse.
Chris Britton, 3.04: No. Low 4's.
Bruce Chen, 7.33: Not going to be this high, but he's in the pen for a reason. Mid to High 6's.

All in all, they'll end up with about a 4.8 ERA at the end of the year. They'll be down from one of the worst in the league, to about the lower 5th. But no way conceivably could they all lower their ERA's into the low-high 4's, and even jump into the middle 3rd. Sorry Thom-Tom, with that schedule, and their "core" of pitchers, I don't really see them making the Top 5.