Adam Dunn For Andrew Jones?

[Slyder]

Stop me if youve been asked this before....

Can you put together a rotation of Reds pitchers in the past 5 years that would constitute even a MEDIOCRE rotation?

Dunn cannot select the pitch, pitch the ball, Dunn cant hit for everyone, Dunn cant make the bullpen something its not, Dunn cant make a career 4.50 ERA pitcher come in and pitch like Nolan Ryan, nor can Jones. Still takes a good pitching staff to win. If you took a list of all the Reds from the past two years (post fire sale era) youd be lucky to see even 3 guys who would make it on the braves staff and probably even their AAA staff.

To say he isnt a great hitter right now because hes team sucks is exactly like saying Ted Williams or Tim Brown were just average players any given year b/c the team around them sucked.

[Fishercat]

OK, you guys want a non-Reds fan supporting Dunn? You got one right here.

Let's get to the statistics here. Andruw Jones is having a career year. He is 28, but he has a good 9 years of MLB Experience. There is reason to say he can't do this again since he had a Bonds-esque month and otherwise, he's been simply good. His speed hasn't been a factor outside of defense, his SBs are essentially nothing to the effect that Dunn actually gains an advantage on the basepaths. There is no reason to believe he can't be a .270-.350-.500 type player for the rest of his career. I'm going around his averages so far, a little above on the first two. If I'm being generous, I'll give him his career year in the first two and a middle point on the slugging (a .280-.360-.550 line). He'll give a team 35 HRs a year, and he's a career 1:2 BB/K guy. He's been better this year which shows in his stats to an extent, but still, that's what he's done. It's common sense he'll be closer to this level for about five years then decline, although this is baseball, anything can happen. If I had to predict Jones' production for the next few years, it would be something like...

.280-.350-.540, 35 HRs, .890 OPS, very good defender (although his quality there has declined according to statistics, he's still a fantastic defending CF), 60 walks, 110 strikeouts, 12 million (I think) salary.

OK, let's look at Adam Dunn and base it off his production so far. I think it is fair to say that he can improve and that using his better years is a fair focal point on a short career. He's shown himself to be a .250 caliber hitter. He has been in the .260's and I think he can do that, so for the sake of comparison, let's give him a projected .255 BA. Even though he strikes out A LOT, he also walks A LOT, at a better rate then Jones. (Jones, over his career, has been a 2 K to 1 BB guy, while Dunn has been a 1.5 K to 1 BB guy). A lot of his value lies there. His previous two full years had over 100 walks and this year has a good shot. His OBP over his career for full seasons has ranged from .370 to .400. I'll get a middle point and say .385 is a fair middle point. I think he'll get even better, but I can't say for sure (although there are a lot of projection models). I'm going to take a liberty on slugging. It's been in the .400's or .500's over his career with little middle point. I'm going to say he'll be closer to his current production than the past. He hit 46 HRs last year, he can get another 40 HR season this year, he's a 40 HR guy. It could range from 35 to 50 per season, but that's what he's shown us. Dunn's, at best, an average defensive OF/1B. Jones likely saves a handful of runs per year over Dunn. I can't estimate how many, but Jones defense does matter. Just as a similar line

.250-.385-.550, 40 HRs, .935 OPS, mediocre defender, 105 BB, 180 Ks, 9 million salary.

Honestly, I'd take Dunn over Jones and save the 3 million in salary for something else I need. Jones certainly regains much of the difference in offense by both his defense and positional superiority. However, if I had to choose, under the point of a gun, Dunn or Jones in a fantasy draft, I'd choose Dunn.

BTW, Dunn's homepark helps him a LOT...but so has Jones' this year. Dunn's OPS difference is .235, Jones' is .140. A big difference, but it isn't like Jones isn't benefitting from his stadium.

[Fishercat]

As for the Top 15 argument, I don't think either is a Top 15 player. This year, one can argue neither has been a Top 15 position player (without defense, with it, harder). I think they're both Top 15 position players at the bottom end, but with pitchers, they're not in the Top 20. This year they are very close and I may take Andruw, but if I had to trade for one, Dunn's the man.

[Fishercat]

Argh, a triple post I know, had to make this point.

Just using Baseball Prospectus' Value Over Replacement Player Rating for a second. 8 of the top 10 hitters on the list wouldn't have their team in the playoffs if the year ended. Lee (CHC), Cabrera (FLA), Roberts and Tejada (BAL), Rodriguez (NYY), Bay (PIT), Young (TEX), and Hafner (CLE). The only ones that make it is Pujols (STL) and Giles (SDP). Keep going you have Morgan Ensberg (No playoffs), Carlos Delgado (Nope), Aramis Ramirez (Nope), Bobby Abreu (Nope), and David Ortiz (Yes). That's 3/15, which translates to 6/30 (when 8/30 of the teams make the playoffs). Then one of the next five qualifies (Jones), then another one of the next five (Damon), then two of the next five (Ramirez and Varitek). So, when it comes to it, 7 of the Top 30 position players according to that stat make the playoffs, four of which are from the Red Sox. Tommorow, that could be a lot more if the Yankees take the lead, or if the Marlins make a comeback, or whatever. I'm just saying that one player cannot carry a team. At the most, he can carry about half of a team (the offense). The Giants didn't make the playoffs last year although Barry Bonds was by far the best hitter in baseball and Jason Schmidt was really good. I think they were near the lead in runs scored? Why didn't they beat LA? The other 23 players maybe.

[ATLien]

Maybe all they needed was Adam Dunn, the next Ted Williams.

[Slyder]

Maybe all they needed was Adam Dunn, the next Ted Williams.

Would you answer the question?

Can you put together a rotation or Reds that would make even a MEDIOCRE rotaiton?

And you are the one who said he isnt top 15 cause his team sucked. I just thought Id bring up others who must have sucked since their TEAMS never won anything.

[CincyRedsFan30]

As for the Top 15 argument, I don't think either is a Top 15 player. This year, one can argue neither has been a Top 15 position player (without defense, with it, harder). I think they're both Top 15 position players at the bottom end, but with pitchers, they're not in the Top 20. This year they are very close and I may take Andruw, but if I had to trade for one, Dunn's the man.

Good posts, but I was talking top 15 player OFFENSIVELY, which he has been this year.

This has been pretty clearly documented in other locations.

[Fishercat]

I just read the responses and glazed over the thread. I saw Top 15 player so I went with it.

Offensively, it's definitely arguable. It depends if you value position in determining offensive value (which I do a bit, it is a bit more difficult to get an offensively potent catcher compared to a first baseman, although the Sox have Millar playing first, so I wouldn't know.

[Fishercat]

I should note, I can see exactly how Atlanta fans and Cincinnati fans feel about this. Every person has an affinity to their own players. I don't think Dunn for A. Jones is that ludicrious a trade offer. However, if they said Dunn for David Ortiz, I'd likely react the same way, and it's the same situation. Am I saying Sea Ray's right? Not really. Not all fans are complete homers towards their players. In this particular case, both sides have a definite argument.

I'll remember a lot of things about David Ortiz the same way Braves fans remember memorable HRs from Jones and Cincy fans from Dunn.

[Kingdom]

This was a trick question. Anyone would take Adam Dunn over Andrew Jones.

As for Andruw...

[Geki Ace]

I don't think I'd give up Dunn for Jones. Jones is three years older, and has been in the majors for nearly a decade now. That's a lot of wear and tear, and with his playing style, he's not gonna go until he's 40. Meanwhile, Dunn is three years younger than Jones, has just four years under his belt, and will likely be moved to 1B at some point in the near future, which will put a lot less wear and tear on his body. Jones is a superior defender, but do the runs he'll save on defense make up for the ones Dunn will overmatch Jones in on offense? Probably not.

Dunn has yet to enter the prime of his career. He's on pace to have less strikeouts and more walks this year, his average should climb back up to around where it was last year by the time this year ends, and his OPS will likely climb as well. Dunn had, by his standards, awful months of May and June. Despite slumping pretty badly, his OPS was over .880 and .850, respectively. Meanwhile, Jones had an OPS barely above .700 thanks to a slump of his own to start off the season. That shows you something about Dunn, to be honest. Even when he's not hitting well, he's still a productive player. That's a horribly underrated value in this league, since every player goes through slumps throughout their season. Take out Jones' superhuman month of June, and his year is just slightly above his career norm.

Considering Dunn has yet to hit the prime of his career, it's logical to think that his ability to hit for contact will improve, and in doing so, his average will go up and strikeouts will go down. He's never going to compete for a batting title or strikeout in the double-digits, but he'll probably get his average consistently up to .275 by the time he's Jones' age. He's probably going to keep his OPS over 1.000 for the majority of his remaining career, which is going to be, at the very least, a decade. I can't see Jones lasting another ten years, and I certainly can't see him matching this kind of production for ten years. Dunn's going to be in the range of .270/.400/.600. Jones is going to be in the range of .270/.350/.500. Unless Jones completely changed something about his game and didn't just happen to have a big hot streak, he's not going to have this kind of season again. Meanwhile, the season Dunn is having this year, which happens to be about equal to the one Jones is having, should be an average or below average year. If Dunn was batting someplace higher than 6th in the order, his RBIs would definitely be up, and his average probably would be as well. Honestly, is he going to get more to hit with Junior and Kearns hitting behind him or with Pena and LaRue hitting behind him?

Now, Dunn IS one of my favorite players, but I don't know why I'd trade a guy with his best years ahead of him who has shown improvement just about every year for a guy who is having his best year. It's tough to teach an eye, which Dunn has. Jones isn't going to walk 100 times a year. Dunn easily has more power than Jones. Jones is unquestionably a better fielder, but with the Reds situation, it's not a huge deal. Fielding in the corner outfield spots or at 1B is, for the most part, unimportant. If the Reds didn't have an extremely good defensive outfielder already manning CF, I may have seen more value in Jones' defense, but it still wouldn't have outweighed Dunn's offensive advantages. They both showed some good speed on the basepaths earlier in their careers but stopped for some reason, so that's essentially a non-issue.

In summary, Dunn is younger, Dunn is cheaper this year and will be in the future, and the only real advantage that Jones has over Dunn is defensively. Trading Dunn for Jones wouldn't make sense from any standpoint, and as much as I'd love to have Andruw Jones manning the outfield for the Reds, Adam Dunn is going to be a premier player in the league for a long time, and you don't trade that away for a just above-average offensive outfielder who plays Gold Glove defense and happens to be having a career year.

As for Dunn being a top-15 position player, I don't see an argument for him not being one. He's 4th in the NL in OPS, which certainly translates to top-15 in the majors, sac-fly deficiencies or not.

[Geki Ace]

Oops, I ranted. That turned out about four paragraphs longer than intended...

[General]

Dunn's also going to ditch the Reds in 2 years, and I'm pretty sure 'druw is locked up.

By the way, Adam=Ted? Homer-watch is in effect.

[Sea Ray]

Am I saying Sea Ray's right? Not really. Not all fans are complete homers towards their players. In this particular case, both sides have a definite argument.

I'll remember a lot of things about David Ortiz the same way Braves fans remember memorable HRs from Jones and Cincy fans from Dunn.

I don't know, after 5 pages of banter back and forth I don't think I could be more right. Reds fans are 100% passionately supporting their guy while Braves fans are doing the same. There are no exceptions in 50 some posts!

Maybe all fans aren't homers but most of them are and all the ones in this "study" are.

I'm enjoying just sitting back, reading and doing this:

[ATLien]

5 Pages? On my computer, this is only the 2nd page.